Morning Grain Comments, 10/22/2015

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Wheat has been on a steady rise over the last couple days an the gains were even steadier overnight, with WZ5 topping out right at the $5 mark. The trade still has some global weather concerns, despite increasing FSU precip and a solid round of rains for the emerging U.S. HRWW crop?

Japan's Ag Min bought 134k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender as scheduled, including 99k from the U.S. and 35k from Canada.

The head of Russia's Grain Union sees grain exports declining seasonally, from 4 MMT in October to 3 MMT in November, then down further in December. The Union also said 30% of the country's winter grain crop is "at risk" due to dry weather, down from 37% at this time last year, but still facing lower soil moisture levels this season compared to last.

Chinese industry analysts believe the government could buy 50% less corn for  state stockpiles in 2015/16, as local officials offer subsidies for processors to use more domestic grain; Beijing is seen buying 40-50 MMT of corn for state stocks during the upcoming six-month purchasing period, versus 83 MMT in 2014/15, but still pushing total state stocks to around 200 MMT. China's 2015/16 corn harvest is expected to hit a record 228 MMT, up 6% from LY.

Indonesia's Ag Ministry said calendar 2015 corn imports are expected to come in slightly below 3.0 MMT, compared to 3.1 MMT in 2014.

Local analysts Agroconsult pegged the 2015/16 Brazilian soybean harvest at a recored 100.6 million tonnes yesterday, up from 96.2 MMT in 2014/15, with the national planting pace at 14% as of Oct 15, up from 11% last season.

Tomorrow afternoon's USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of October 1 at 102.1% of last year, with September placements seen at 95.4% of LY and Sept marketings at 97.5% of LY.



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