Soybean Report, 03/15/2016

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Export inspections yesterday were a reminder that SA is shipping now. Today we will see if the NOPA crush numbers fall into lockstep with SA competition showing a lower crush number as expected. At 139.9 MB on the average, anything even lower will be bearish as the crush will need to be adjusted even lower. Weather not an issue yet for the US plantings of beans. Just over 2 weeks until we get the quarterly stocks report and the planting intentions. Spreads have been stuck in a rut they cannot seem to climb out of for now. Basis is steady with a weaker tone, but that is mostly due to lack of producer movement. Any pop in selling will weaken basis in hurry. A push from a crusher is about all one can hope for now. In outside markets, things are weaker pretty much across the commodity spectrum, but the US$ cannot be blamed today. It looks more like a profit taking selloff prior to the FOMC meetings today and tomorrow. Post trading deliveries today were 31 meal, 17 oil and 53 beans. Nice gains in OI across the board for the whole complex yesterday. Appears we could be getting some cash flow into index funds. Today should be a grinder lower as we look for demand and other factors to allow this market to get a solid foothold that could be the basis for another leg up

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