The MarketWatch Update
Today's commodity market news and analysis/advisory guidance.
US RJO - Scott Magnuson, CTA
- Precious Metals
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Currencies
- Interest Rates
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence
Economic
- 10-year futures are +3/32. Yields are -0.75 bps at 4.528%. S&P futures are +57.00. Stocks are reversing the tech-related selloff on Friday, prompted by perceived high valuations and by the stronger-than-expected jobs numbers, which decreased the odds of rate cuts. Fighting between Israel and Iran rose in the past 24 hours, but President Trump again said that both a ceasefire and peace deal are near. Oil prices were more than $4/bbl higher overnight until they weakened after around 6 am CDT.
- Preliminary data on Strait of Hormuz transits shows 5 crossings on Sunday compared to 13 on Saturday.
- On the economic data calendar this week, existing home sales are due on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, PPI and jobless claims on Thursday, and Michigan sentiment on Friday.
- (Bloomberg) Energy stocks and fertilizer stocks are rising, while travel stocks are falling, as a fresh flare-up in Iran-Israel hostilities threatened the Middle East ceasefire and lifted oil prices.
- (Reuters) Shares of Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron Technology rose between 1.7% and 3.7% premarket, rebounding from a sharp selloff on Friday that wiped out $1 trillion in market value for U.S.-listed chipmakers.
- (Reuters) Citigroup was the latest brokerage to raise its 2026-end target for the S&P 500 index to cross the 8,000 mark, citing corporate earnings resilience and AI-driven growth.
- (Reuters) Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through 2026 and delay rate cuts until 2027, it said on Friday, citing stronger economic activity and job growth after a robust payrolls report.
- (Reuters) Nvidia on Monday announced a series of deals in South Korea with tech giants including SK Hynix and Naver, as it looks to secure crucial memory chips to power its AI ambitions and entice new customers.
- (Bloomberg) Marvell climbs 9% and Flex rises 4% as the companies are set to replace Pool Corp. and Campbell’s in the S&P 500 before the market open on June 22.
- (Reuters) Euro zone government bond yields climbed to multi-week highs on Monday as traders came close to fully pricing in three European Central Bank rate hikes by year-end amid fading hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- (Reuters) German industrial orders fell more than expected in April, following a strong increase in March, when companies brought forward orders amid fears of price increases due to the war in Iran. Orders declined by 3.8% on the previous month vs. a fall of 2% expected.
Geopolitical
- (Reuters) Israel hit a petrochemical plant in southwestern Iran that it said was used to produce ballistic missiles. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it retaliated with a strike aimed at a similar Israeli plant in the city of Haifa. Earlier, President Donald Trump demanded that Israel and Iran "immediately stop 'shooting'".
- (Reuters) The Strait of Hormuz will be open but under new conditions to be set by Iran and Oman, including a transit fee, Iran's ambassador to Moscow was quoted as saying on Monday. "Of course, this strait will be open, but with new conditions to be determined by the Iranian and Omani authorities," Ambassador Kazem Jalali told the Russian newspaper Izvestia in an interview published on Monday.
- (Reuters) President Donald Trump said in an interview with NBC News’ "Meet the Press" that he would not unfreeze Iranian assets or lift any sanctions before a peace deal is reached. Trump also said that he was not demanding that Lebanon be a part of a short-term deal with Tehran. "I think they'd like to see it, but I'm not demanding," Trump said in the interview recorded on Friday. "We're very close to a deal, or I'm going to blow the hell out of them," Trump told NBC News.
- (Reuters) President Donald Trump said on Monday that both Israel and Iran are looking to "do an immediate ceasefire", and that final negotiations on "peace" are proceeding. "Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly", Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
- (Reuters) China will not swerve from its commitment to safeguarding common interests with North Korea or waver in its support for Kim Jong Un, President Xi Jinping told Pyongyang's leader on Monday during a rare summit. Xi's two-day visit, his first in seven years to China's reclusive neighbor, comes at a time when its economy, strengthened by growing trade and military ties to Russia, could boost Kim's confidence in talks.
- (Reuters) Russian air defense units repelled an overnight drone attack on energy infrastructure in the Volgograd region, with falling debris sparking a fire at a pipeline pumping station in the Zhirnovsky district, Governor Andrei Bocharov said. An oil pipeline runs through the district.
- (Reuters) A loading complex has caught fire in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk after a drone attack, local authorities said on Monday. They said no one was injured, while 130 firefighters have been battling the blaze.
- (Reuters) Ukrainian forces have recaptured more than 600 square km of territory since the start of 2026, Ukraine's top army commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Monday.
- (Reuters) Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday said Russian magnate Roman Abramovich had met him in Kyiv and offered to take a message to the Kremlin on peace prospects, but the Ukrainian leader reiterated that his government would not abandon its Donbas region. Zelenskiy's comments to Sky News while holding talks in London marked his first acknowledgement that the billionaire had traveled to Ukraine's capital and was involved to some extent in negotiations.
Energy
- WTI is +$1.12/bbl at $91.66/bbl, while Brent is +$1.65/bbl at $94.74/bbl. Natural gas is -$0.076/MMBtu at $3.153/MMBtu.
- (Reuters) Crude prices rose over 4% to more than $95 a barrel as renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and fresh attacks on Lebanon soured hopes of an imminent end to the wider war.
- (Reuters) OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the U.S. war with Iran is still preventing several of the group's members from pumping more. Seven core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day. In reality, the group's production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April compared with 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures.
- (Reuters) Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude oil to Asia in July for a second month, as expected, as spot premiums eased on slow demand despite supply disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The July OSP for flagship Arab Light crude has been set at a premium of $9.50 a barrel above the average Dubai and Oman quotes, a pricing document by Saudi Aramco showed on Monday, $6 a barrel lower than the OSP for June.
Metals
- Gold is -$11.70/oz, trading at $4,353.60/oz, while silver is -$0.503/oz at $68.60/oz.
- The dollar index is -0.014 points at 99.929.
- (Reuters) The dollar traded around its highest in nearly two months early on Monday before falling back lower. The blowout U.S. jobs report prompted traders to ramp up bets on a Federal Reserve rate rise this year, while the yen tilted further into the intervention zone.
- (Reuters) Gold prices fell to their lowest in more than two months on Monday, after last week's strong U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while Israel and Iran traded strikes, pushing oil prices higher and fueling inflation concerns.
- (Reuters) Copper prices rose on Monday as stocks in London Metal Exchange approved warehouses fell, with the market looking ahead to a U.S. decision at the end of June on import tariffs on the metal.
- Interest Rates
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Interest Rates
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
Tom Pawlicki
- Interest Rates
ECB Policy Faces a Harder Test Than Markets Expect
A sharp revision to Eurozone growth data has exposed a deeper challenge for policymakers than a simple economic slowdown. As geopolitical risks and market volatility rise, the European Central Bank must determine whether weakening growth signals reflect genuine deterioration or statistical distortion.
Editorial Team
- Interest Rates
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.