Reuters Price Polls Released for Base Metals – Our Take
Reuters Price Polls Annual Forecasts (Y/Y % Change)
Source : Reuters
Source : Reuters
Source : Reuters
Reuters Price Polls Quarterly Forecasts (Heatmap Q/Q)
Source : Reuters
2025 Key Takeaways
Reuters poll averages have aluminum as the outperforming base metal for this year, followed by copper and lead, while nickel, tin and zinc are on track to see lower prices Y/Y.
If we compare this to what market consensus was in October, then the first thing to note (excluding zinc and aluminium), is that the outlook has grown increasingly bearish for prices. While copper gains Y/Y for 2025 were lowered to just 1% from 7.6% in October, gains were flipped into losses Y/Y for lead and tin. Meanwhile, aluminum and zinc were the exceptions, with the market looking for modestly higher aluminum prices and notably higher gains for zinc than three months ago.
Annual Reuters Price Polls Outlook for 2025 (% change from three months ago)
Source : Reuters
Quarterly Reuters Price Polls Outlook for 2025 (% change from three months ago).
Source : Reuters
Why has the outlook grown increasingly bearish for base metals overall?
The previous poll was taken back in October, ahead of the US election and China’s Economic Work Conference (in December, which is widely acknowledged to be a precursor to the Two Sessions meeting in March). The Trump win in the US elections has resulted in increased market uncertainty, especially when it comes to the outlook for tariffs and resulting impact on American economic growth, underpinning the US dollar. Meanwhile, China’s vow to prioritize domestic consumption and investment returns this year did little to improve record low consumer confidence in the country, given ongoing disappointing hard economic data readings.
Why have aluminum and zinc price forecasts been raised Y/Y?
Consensus has warmed towards zinc over the last several months given ongoing supply side tightness in the market, in which zinc arguably faces the largest risks on supply having undergone three years of declining mine production, while being the only base metal to record a decline in refined Chinese output in 2024. In the case of aluminum, a series of unforeseen disruptions in the alumina market, concerns over future refined output in China (given a capacity ceiling of 45Mty), alongside robust demand growth stemming from the green and digital transition have strengthened aluminum’s appeal.
How does this compare with our view?
Source : Reuters, StoneX
Regarding overall price direction, we are largely in line with market consensus, aluminum, zinc and copper set for annual average gains Y/Y, while and nickel and lead are likely to record lower Y/Y prices. Meanwhile, tin is the metal of contention, in which we estimate higher annual prices in 2025, against market consensus of a modest decline.
Looking on a per metal basis:
Aluminium: We are less bullish than the average of the market
In our view, although aluminium theoretically is in a similar position to tin and copper (with a wide range of uses in the fast-growing energy and digital transition), its fundamentals are the weakest of the three, on track to record a third year of growing surpluses in 2025, supported in part by increased efforts in scrap recycling. While we forecast a modest rise in aluminium prices Y/Y on the return in demand appetites, it’s also important to note that a permanent, gradual but significant support for the aluminium price in the next years will come from the growing demand for low-carbon production – not only from scrap recycling but also from ‘virgin’ metal.
Zinc- We are more bullish than the average of the market
Although we expect a recovery in global supply to move the zinc market into a surplus in 2025, we forecast modestly higher zinc prices, supported by additional stimulus efforts targeting the infrastructure and contruction industry in China and the US, while supply side constraints will keep the market tighter than expected, at least in H1.
Copper – In line with market consensus
The outlook for copper (a bellwether for the global economy) has become more uncertain in 2025, with President Trump’s announcement over policy likely to result in higher global inflation, slower rate cuts, sluggish global growth and increased uncertainty. Meanwhile, the health of China’s economy in 2025 is also uncertain (responsible for 60% of copper demand), with the implementation of 10% tariffs on imports of goods into the US at the start of this month, adding to domestic economic challenges. We view copper’s price range as narrowing on the upside and increasing to the downside from previous expectations, to average at a similar level to last year. However, we do not rule out increased price volatility on the back of speculative investor participation (which was responsible for copper’s rise to a record nominal high in May last year).
Tin – We hold an opposing outlook for tin to the average of the market
While tin is often a metal overlooked in the suite, its fundamentals are arguably the best, with tin’s use in renewable energy, new technologies (e.g. artificial intelligence & electronics) and energy storage, versus a tightening supply outlook, resulting in the International Tin Association (ITA) forecasting a record 35,700t deficit by 2030 (from a deficit of just 15,300 this year). Looking ahead, with global stocks pulling lower from record highs in May, pressure from a tightening supply picture and growing demand profile is starting to emerge.
Nickel – We are considerably more bearish on nickel than the average of the market
Nickel arguably holds the weakest fundamentals of the suite (with 2025 set to post a fourth year of expanding surpluses, not to mention the highest level of surplus on record). In addition, investors' confidence in major benchmarks remains subdued, discouraging participation. Furthermore, we expect the inclusion of Indonesian and Chinese brands by the LME to further add to negative price pressures, with Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment having announced they plan to hold nickel within a $18,000t-$16,000t range. Having said this, with current nickel prices moving towards $15,000/t, even Indonesia (the world’s largest producer), will face mining and smelting profitability issues.
Lead – We are modestly less bearish on lead than the average of the market
Lead is likely to remain on a less volatile path than the rest of the base metal suite due to its unique characteristics:
• Its lower exposure to primary supply risks
• Its lower exposure to primary demand risks
• Smaller market imbalances
• Relative illiquidity
• Commonly misunderstood long-term role in decarbonisation
While we forecast that Chinese supply tightness will likely ease in the months ahead on the back of arbitrage opportunities, the risk of a further SHFE short squeeze cannot be ruled out. Having said this, with forecast weak global demand from lead-acid batteries this year, and global stocks at current levels, the outlook for lead price gains will remain modest, however, may benefit from forecast upward pressure attached to copper over the H2 2025.
To read our forecast in full, please follow this link for our Annual Metals Outlook 2025, or watch our webinar ‘Outlook for Metals in a Changed Environment’.
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