Coffee Markets Close Detached
Arabica futures for March delivery settled 140 points or 0.76% lower at 181.40 cents a pound. Spec selling put some pressure on the market following a weak opening that pushed the prices to a six-week low. Last Friday COT data showing insignificant change of the non-commercial’s position encouraged the action. However good support below the 179.50 level prompted speculative buying. Favorable weather in Brazil during the weekend for key coffee producing areas continues to improve crop conditions. This week the forecast shows less precipitations for southern areas. Private estimates for the developing crop should circulate in the coming weeks and could be higher than initially expected due to the better rainfall. The annual rebalancing of the index funds this month should add some pressure, as they are expected to reduce their position considerably. Technically, the March contract has found initial support at 179.50, the lower band of the Bollinger. Oscillators near over-sold conditions make the market more prone to a corrective upside move. Cert stocks decreased 498 bags to 252,646. Pending grading increased by 6,265 bags (BR 5,440; CO 825) to 23,166 bags total. No grading was done today.
The Robusta terminal continues to defy gravity, despite the impeding index rebalancing as participants continue to focus on issues in Vietnam. Light origin pressure through early exchanges saw values test marginally lower but crucially was unable to attract a fresh element of selling below the previous low. This naturally prompted early speculative shorts to cover as the market observed a light layer of roaster buying below $2780. However, after period of calm through the mid-session, March24 basis structure found firm buying which triggered an aggressive rally in flat price triggering stops on route to the intraday high at $2898. This move was help by the early origin selling easing/stopping and arbitrage related buying as the Mar24/Mar24 arbitrage narrowed to 51 cents. Technically values held nearby averages for a fourth consecutive with oscillators turning higher in oversold territory. This encourages pure technical players to target the December 2023 high at $2970 basis March24.
At the time of writing
USDBRL 4.8741 -0.02%
USDCOP closed on holiday
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-11-3509-5426
ICE Arabica
Volume:
42,139
ICE Robusta
Volume:
18,620
Brazil Arabica
Volume:
422
Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
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