Coffee Settles Firm
Arabica coffee futures extended the bounce Tuesday supported by the technical performance. The most active contract for March delivery closed 270 point or 1.48% higher at 184.10 cents a pound. As we mentioned yesterday, over sold conditions, good support below the 179.50 level and the lower level of the Bollinger Band, encouraged the speculative buying. The nearby Mar/May switch gained 35 points premium to end at 2.10 cents. Specs buying interest was noted. The market continues to wait for the estimates of Brazil's new crop that usually are published by the end of the month. These forecasts typically are more reliable as they are made from direct surveys to the plantations. The IBGE will publish the estimate for the crop 2023 /2024 tomorrow. CONAB, the government supply agency will release the first estimate of the 2024 crop on January 18. StoneX team has started a second crop tour and will publish the forecast in the weeks to follow.
Cert stocks increased by 3,374 bags to 256,646 total bags. Pending certification added 14,213 bags (increased BR 7,235; TZ 4,927; PG 4,800 / decreased HN 2,200; PE 549) to 37,379 bags. Graded today 6,744 bags: 3,734 passed and 3,010 failed.
The Robusta terminal builds on recent gains as speculative buying off the opening bell triggered stops through the previous highs. This continues to be a function of ongoing issues through Asia and shipping routes/ delays adding fuel to the fire and origin interest levels low given the price action. The market strength would have also feed off the multination industry auction which took place today, naturally drawing support to differentials out of Vietnam. The option arena posted heavy volume with buying 3000 dfh4 2600 puts selling 6000 dfh4 2450 puts trading @ $9. Note current open interest in dfh4 2450 puts stands at 7000 lots overnight. Also Buying 3000 dfh4 2850 puts Selling 3000 dfh4 2700 puts with a 16% delta hedge (2904) trading at $56. Premium being paid to protect downside of an existing long position.
At the time of writing
USDBRL 4.9015 +0.64%
USDCOP 3944.0 +1.53%
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-11-3509-5426
ICE Arabica
Volume:
39,515
ICE Robusta
Volume:
23,678
Brazil Arabica
Volume:
719
Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
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