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Daily Coffee Report - 01/10/2024

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Coffee Markets close Detached

 

Arabica coffee market was again under pressure on  speculative selling  encouraged by  perspectives of a better crop in Brazil and the technical weakness of the prices. The most active contract for March delivery settled 270 points or 1.46% lower at 184.10 cents a pound. The nearby Mar/May switch gained 30 points to end at 2.35 cents. Participants are paying close attention to the switch that can reveal a change of the forward curve trend.  Significant volumes were noted again in options. Par call calendar spread options Mar / May recorded 1300 sales at 105. Paper sold 2,000 Mar 195 -185 put spreads at 708. Rains returned to main coffee areas in Brazil yesterday and are expected to continue across southern Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo next days improving the development of the crop. The open interest increased 401 lots as of yesterday evidencing the short covering that contributed to yesterday’s rise. The IBGE of Brazil published the estimate the 23-24 harvest at 57 million bags, a little above the previous estimate + 1.2% and 8.9% above the 22-23 harvest. Arabica was estimated at 39.5 million bags and Robusta at 17.5 million bags. Actually, the figure at the bottom of the estimates published so far did not have a major impact since it is known for its low estimates.

Cert stocks increased by 1,686 bags to 258,066 bags. Pending grading declined 2,657 bags to 34,722 bags. Graded today a total of 4,695: 1,813 passed and 2,882 failed.

Robusta Mar24 contract settled at $2945 with a 2995/2881 range. Flat price continues the upward trajectory probing new highs uncovering light scale up selling. The main trigger for todays wave of buying was the strength in nearby structure. Mar/may saw a new high of $124 trading 2.2k lots between 96/124. This spread has rallied $56 in 3 sessions prompting further speculative flat price buying and short covering. Continued physical tightness in Asia adds further fuel to this structure. Option activity was high today with highlights below: Robusta May24 2500/2300 putspread trades 1500x @ 36, Robusta May24 2550/2350 putspread traded 2000x @ 43, Robusta Jul24 3200/4000 callspread vs 2712Δ17 traded 1050x @ 60.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 4.8928 -0.24%

USDCOP 3932.6 -0.19%

[email protected]    

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305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

49,319

 

ICE Robusta

Volume:

22,511

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

606

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Related tags: Coffee

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