Arabica Futures Remain Under Pressure CoffeeNetwork - Arabica prices on the InterContinental Exchange were trading 2.85 lower for the March contract, last seen at 176.60. Volume was good with 11,960 contracts at the time of writing.
Arabica futures are lower today, with some early selling noted by traders. The market is digesting the first estimate from CONAB published this morning, pegging total production at 58.08 million bags, 5.5% higher than the previous crop. This is one of the first in the slew of various estimates that will circulate the market. StoneX will release their official crop estimate following the second part of their crop tour, scheduled to take place in the coming weeks. Technically, the market is seeing good volume today and the H/K down 85 to 2.35 has attracted spec selling. A lower Brazilian Real is also incentivizing some producer selling today, adding additional pressure to the market. Also in terms of bearish news is the recovery of certified stocks, gaining 8,150 bags yesterday, bringing total certified stocks to 267,340 bags. It is interesting to note that the data from the Intercontinental Exchange data has shown many bags failing grading. While ICE “can’t comment on why specific lots failed,” they did clarify to CoffeeNetwork in an interview that the prohibition on submitting previously certified lots prevents such lots from getting to the “pending grading” status - so that is not a criteria on which a lot could fail grading. “Lots can only fail on one or more of the grading qualifications - ie, quality.”
Robusta futures are lower today as the market continues to correct from highs posted earlier in the week. There has also been some selling from producers ahead of the Tet holiday, which begins next month.
Commodities are mixed today. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 187,000 on the week ending January 18th, the least since September 2022.
Brent Crude Oil rose 0.15% to 78.00 and Spot Gold Futures also gained 0.34% to 2,013.09.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.29% lower to 37,159.23 and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index was last seen at 469.88, up 0.54%.
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