Coffee futures closed higher today, in a session led by Robusta prices that approach the contract high of $5180 basis November24 printed on August 30th. Robusta futures for November delivery closed $69 higher at $5077, trading to a session high of $5115, with almost 60% of the day’s total volume traded through spreads. The nearby Nov/Jan spread closed $19 higher at a premium of $261 or 11.84 cents per pound. Arabica flat price and spreads tracked higher to close at 8 session highs. The spread between the two grades went out at 19 cents for Dec/Nov deliveries.
Arabica trading has been slow, with little commercial flow and little risk appetite from the trade in general in the current market. Robusta prices are still supported by the lack of spot supply available to fulfill demand. We are still a little more than 6 weeks away from November deliveries, but the focus is already starting to shift away from Sep as open interest in the spot contract this week has dwindled down to 622 lots.
Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated their ENSO guidance to a 71% probability for La Niña from September to November, with “conditions expected to persist through January-March 2025. La Niña often brings drier than normal conditions to the Southeast coffee regions of Brazil during the time frame mentioned, and wetter than normal conditions to the Vietnam highlands during the same period.
At the time of writing:
USDBRL 5.6178 +0.41%
USDCOP 4213.6 +0.80%
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-11-3509-5426
ICE Arabica
Volume:
28,720
ICE Robusta
Volume:
15,754
Brazil Arabica
Volume:
762
Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
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