02/18/2025 Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update
International
- Forward urea markets showing some weakness as lack of new info/rumors float around
- China
- The rumor has been circulating that the government will start to ease export restrictions
- Some have said this easing would happen in march
- Others have said this easing would happen in the summer
- The fact that multiple months far apart are being discussed tells me no one knows
- Some in China are saying there is no truth to the rumor but that domestic prices have rallied because of them
- So how do you think the government is going to see that?
- Their goal has been adequate stockpiles and low domestic values
- They have accomplished both
- Now they see domestic prices rallying on the rumor of exports?
- Why would they want to go ahead and push prices up more just before their spring?
- Not saying they absolutely will not, but it goes against what their strategy has been
- The rumor has been circulating that the government will start to ease export restrictions
- India
- Many, myself included, thought we would see a urea purchase tender by now
- That has not been the case
- No official word…yet
- However, lot of pointing to solid India domestic demand
- The demand is already a known situation
- However, the demand being bigger earlier does push the idea that they are about to be forced to buy again
- Many, myself included, thought we would see a urea purchase tender by now
- I cannot help but wonder if some of the negative price rumors are not hopeful thinking by folks that still have tons to price
- The market has felt very conservative on this bull run
- Which is weird because this seems like the most fundamentally supported bull run we have seen
- Being conservative means constantly watching your pricing go higher
- Makes it harder and harder to go ahead and lock in a value
- You have seen it skyrocket and you do not want to pull the trigger at the top
- I have nothing to back this but it could be that some bearish rumors are floated in hopes of depressing price ideas short term
- Give a chance to lock in and catch the next run….
- On the phosphate side, good news
- https://www.arabnews.com/node/2590571/amp
- Looks like Ma’aden is going ahead with a $7.7B investment to expand their facility
- Phosphates 1 and 2 are both kicking out around 3M tons per year
- Phosphate 3 will provide an additional 3M tons per year
- Obviously this will take time before they produce the first ton…but this is great news for the global phosphate market
- More tons of production are needed. This is a win for buyers
- Paper trades today
- Paper trades today
- April Egypt Urea at $410 (down $5 from Friday’s settlement)
- April Middle East Urea at $395 (down $10 from Friday’s settlement)
- May Middle East Urea at $381-$385 (first trade)
- Paper trades today
North America
- It…is…cold
- -10F forecasted for tomorrow evening
- More snow on the ground in Kansas City
- However, hope is on the way
- 55 – 60F is forecasted for early next week
- That is a huge reminder that spring is near
- Before long, application will begin
- Just as a heads up, NOLA urea still shows a discount to M.E. replacement as it has for a long time
- Not saying nothing is coming here
- But it probably keeps spot vessels at bay
- Last, a little physical DAP trading slightly higher once again
- Not a big shock
- Demand is rising with rising corn acre forecasts
- Grain values continue to climb, putting more dollars in farmers pockets
- Should be a big spring demand that helps support values
- But how long can it hold before fears of summer take hold.
Paper trades today
- No trades observed
- Physical trades today
- February NOLA Urea at $400 (down $8 from Friday’s trade)
- 1H March NOLA DAP at $605 (last traded $602 on 02/06/25)
- March NOLA Urea at $400 (down $12 from Friday’s trade)
- April NOLA Urea at $395-$397 (last traded $402 on 02/06/25)
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