Top Axes:
Trading Recap:
- Yesterday, StoneX traded EXPE 0 02/15/26 and F 0 03/15/26. Last week, the convert desk traded BKNG 0 ¾ 05/01/25, ENV 2 ⅝ 12/01/27, EQXCN 4 ¾ 10/15/28, GRPN 1 ⅛ 03/15/26, GRPN 6 ¼ 03/15/27 *, MGPI 1 ⅞ 11/15/41, PCT 7 ¼ 08/15/30, PLUG 3 ¾ 06/01/25, SMCI 0 03/01/29, SPOT 0 03/15/26, SYNA 0 ¾ 12/01/31, UBER 0 ⅞ 12/01/28 2028, and UPST 1 11/15/30.
Notable Movers and Themes
- - MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) announced a $700mm new convertible bond due 2030, with UOP to address $200mm of the existing notes due 2026, and well as for the purchase of additional BTC. See below for underwriting assumptions.
- - SMCI 0 03/01/29 moved higher again outright (84.375 - 84.875 context) as the common stock rallied almost 30% on the day.
- - GRPN 1 ⅛ 03/15/26 continues to settle in around 8.75% YTM following last week’s news of an exchange (analysis available here), trading 90.375-90.625. We remain axed in the new GRPN 6 1/4 03/15/27.
MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) Prices Upsized $850mm New Cvt on the Rids
- 0% Coupon v 0%-0.5% marketed
- 42.5% Premium v 40%-45% marketed
- 5.28 years
- Put in 3 years
- UOP: $200mm for buyback of existing 26 cvts. Remainder for bitcoin and other GCP.
- Assumptions:
- UW: 500 / 60 / 1%
- StoneX: 350 / 50 / GC
- Fair Value:
- UW: 103.1
- StoneX: 102.5
UOP:
- Expenses $17mm = 2% of issue
- 26’ Cvt repurchase: $199mm for $212mm par = 93.4 price
- Remainder for Bitcoin and GCP.
Balance Sheet @ 3Q and PF for Post Q Actions
Cash: $164.3 + $200 + $297 = $661.3mm
Bitcoin: 26,747
Value @ $90k $2.4 billion
Debt:
Line of Credit 200 Entered 10/15. Fully funded. Collateralized by BTC.
Cvt 1% 12/26 330.7 92.75 4.8% YTM
Cvt 2.125% 9/31 300.0 Last implies sub 200 credit. Marketed 75/45
Total Debt $830.7
Mkt Cap: $5,826.8
- 2024 ATM: $1.5 bil facility. 9m ended 9/30 raised $665.7mm. Post Q raised an additional $297mm, leaving $520.2mm remaining available.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Reported it has hired an auditor, BDO USA, and has submitted a plan to Nasdaq to regain compliance with listing requirements. Pursuant to Nasdaq rules, Supermicro’s securities will remain listed pending Nasdaq’s review of the compliance plan.
Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND 0 03/27)
Bull Case:
- Company expects to raise capital via ATM before year end. Any raise via ATM will help credit and borrow.
- Company continues to navigate they roll out of their new, healthier, higher prices product, and has made continued progress on costs, particularly with the results of insourcing some production.
Bear Case:
- Expectations of EBITDA negative out through 2028.
- Longer term positioning of product is uncertain.
New $200mm ATM program.
- On Nov 7th the company announced a new $200mm equity ATM program. This program replaces an existing $200mm ATM with a different broker that was put in place in 2023 and never used. The company stated that they “expect to raise additional capital through the [ATM] by the end of 2024.”
Bondholders Organizing:
- 7/18/24. Reports that company and bondholders are organizing / engaging in restructuring talks.
- On the last C-Call Mgmt noted that in addition to raising new capital by year end via the ATM, they are also looking to do “a more holistic … balance sheet restructuring at some point next year.” They have been “working towards … throughout the year… [but] the discussion have taken … longer than we initially anticipated.”
Balance Sheet @ 3Q
Cash $121.7
Cvt 0% 3/27 $1,150.0 Cvt is only debt
Mkt Cap $322.4
- Consensus 24’ EBITDA loss ($96)mm, FCF ($84)mm.
- 2028 Consensus EBITDA still negative $5mm.
FCF 9M24 2023 2022 2021
CFO (70) (108) (320) (301)
Invest (5) (14) (85) (150)
FCF (75) (122) (405) (451)
Please reach out to the desk for details.
Pre-Market Convert Stock Movers:
Recent Notes – By Date
Desk Contacts:
Dave Sposito (Head of Desk) – 212-692-5172 – [email protected]
Zach Johannes (Trading) – 973-222-6189 - [email protected]
Denise Dalonzo (Sales) – 917-699-1630 - [email protected]
Walter McNulty (Sales) – 203-219-5837 – [email protected]
Chris Frascella (Sales) – 203-912-7535 – [email protected]
Rob Weaver (Strategist) – 203-399-7023 – [email protected]
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments, and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
The author(s) responsible for the preparation of this commentary hereby certify that all the views expressed herein accurately reflect their personal views only. The author also certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
This commentary is not research or a recommendation and does not take into account whether any product or transaction is suitable for any particular client. SFI does not produce debt research and therefore this communication is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards and other requirements applicable to research reports under FINRA’s research rules. This document is intended for institutional investors only and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to research reports prepared for retail investors. Clients should assume that this document is not independent of SFI’s proprietary interests. SFI trades, and will continue to trade, the securities covered in this document for its own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to or entered into in advance of this document.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and is registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser.
This commentary is not research or a recommendation and does not take into account whether any product or transaction is suitable for any particular client. SFI does not produce debt research and therefore this communication is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards and other requirements applicable to research reports under FINRA’s research rules. This document is only intended for institutional investors, as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c), and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to research reports prepared for retail investors. Clients should assume that this document is not independent of SFI’s proprietary interests. SFI trades, and will continue to trade, the securities covered in this document for its own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to or entered into in advance of this document.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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