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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | Ag Markets Lower to Start the Week

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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook
 
Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @Turners_Take
Podcast: Turner's Take Podcast
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World Weather |   Recent rains have likely stabilized yields across C and N Brazil.  Precipitation is in the forecast for next week and there is no immediate weather threat in S. America.  Snow in the Midwest and Plains will provide cover for winter wheat as temperatures look to drop this week.  A polar vortex is forecasted to sweep through the Western Prairies and into the US by midweek.
Commitment of Traders |  The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report was released after the close on Friday and showed funds heavy sellers in corn, soybeans, and soybean meal.  Below is a table and I highlighted the fund selling.  Bottom line is the S. America crop has stabilized and demand is average at best.  The path of least resistance is lower as grain and oilseed supplies continue to transition from tight to adequate/burdensome.
Grains & Oilseeds |   While conditions have stabilized in Brazil, some damage has already been done according to many private analysts.  Safras & Mercado estimates 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production at 151.4 MMT, a 6.8 MMT cut from their last projection.   Canola, soybeans, and corn continue to grind lower in order to find domestic and export demand.  Wheat is 10+ cents as the trade thinks the new snow cover in the Midwest/Plains should be enough to insulate wheat from any winter kill from the drop in temperatures.  
Crude oil is down $2 as Saudi Arabia cuts prices to Asian customers. The cuts in production have not stabilized demand/price as much as OPEC had hoped.  This is not a good sign for the energy markets.
 
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Related tags: Grains & Oilseeds

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