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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook | Jan WASDE Today 11am CT

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Canada Know-Risk Market Outlook
 
Craig Turner
Office: 312-706-7610
Twitter: @Turners_Take
Podcast: Turner's Take Podcast
Network: LinkedIn
 
WASDE | The USDA will release their January WASDE today at 11am CT.  I took a poll on my X (twitter) account about what could be the biggest surprise.  Harvest Yields came in at 44%, Quarterly Stocks at 37%, S, Am production at 18%.  No one voted for Winter Wheat Seedings, including myself, so naturally that is where I now thing the surprise will be :)
 
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Weather | Argentine and Brazilian forecasts show wide spread rains in the next five days before drying out in the 6-10 day.  The US Midwest is about to get a lot of snow.  It is good for winter wheat and it also should be good for soil moisture this spring.  
 
Grains & Oilseeds |  Crude oil is up over $2 and traded $75 overnight after the US and Britain carried out military strikes against Houthi controlled areas of Yemen.  Canola, wheat, soybeans and corn are getting a lift from the rally in crude.  We are also seeing a little profit taking this morning from the shorts as traders square up some of their positions heading into the WASDE.
The CBOT will be closed on Monday for the MLK holiday.  The WASDE is released at 11am CT, when Asia and Europe are already closed.  They will not be able to fully trade the report until Monday night/Tuesday morning.  I've said this many times before, but if I could make one change at the USDA it would be to not have a major report released on the last trading day of the week.  
Finally, private analyst Patria cut their Brazil soybean production to 143.18 MMT, down from their previous forecast of 150.7 MMT.  The USDA is still at 161 MMT but the trade is expecting that number to be cut later today.  143 MMT for Brazil soybeans is the lowest I've seen so far this season. Brazil soybean production sub 145 MMT starts to be bullish for soybeans and canola.  
Related tags: Grains & Oilseeds

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