Fonte: StoneX cmdtyView.
FX/Brazilian Real (Foreign Exchange)The week was marked by interest rate decisions from the central banks of Brazil and the United States, as well as a significant easing of global trade tensions after the US reached an agreement with the UK and scheduled an initial meeting with Chinese economic authorities. The BRL exchange rate ended Friday’s (May 9) session at R$ 5.6544, showing no change for the week, a -0.4% decline for the month, and a -8.5% drop year-to-date. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week at 100.4 points, a 0.4% weekly gain and a 0.9% increase for the month, though still down 7.1% for the year.
SOYBEANSoybean prices in Chicago ended last week with slight movement, with the July contract closing Friday (May 9) at 1051.75 cents per bushel, down 0.6% for the week. In addition to the tariff issue between the US and China, the market is closely monitoring the progress of the US crop, discussions around biofuels, Brazilian exports, and the Argentine harvest.
Over the weekend, the US and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days. On the American side, import tariffs on Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. This development supported prices at the start of the week, along with a WASDE report that forecast strengthened global soybean consumption and a decline in US planted acreage, as previously anticipated.
CORNCorn continues downward trend in Chicago
Corn futures fell sharply last week, with the June 2025 contract closing at US¢449.75/bu, down 4.1%. Rapid planting progress and favorable weather in the US Corn Belt, coupled with positive developments in Brazil’s second crop (“safrinha”), are the main bearish fundamentals, with funds increasing short positions on the CBOT. Political developments, including US trade agreements with the UK and China, also shaped the week and will be discussed further.
Prices dropped both on the B3 and in the physical market. On Brazil’s B3 exchange, the July 2025 contract plunged 4.8%, closing at R$64.19 per sack. Price pressure stems from increasingly optimistic yield expectations for Brazil’s second crop. In early May, StoneX revised Brazil’s second crop output up by 2.7 million tons, projecting a total national harvest of 132.4 million tons — the second-largest in history.
On Monday (May 12), the USDA released the May WASDE report with its first estimates for the 2025/26 crop. As expected, the report forecast a record US crop of 401.8 million tons. What surprised markets most was the strong global demand outlook, with consumption growth projected in the US, Brazil, and China.
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VEGETABLE OILSBetween May 2 and 9, 2025, key vegetable oils declined in global markets. Soybean oil fell 1.7% in Chicago, pressured by lower crude oil prices and higher palm oil production in Malaysia. Expectations for new EPA biofuel targets and strong US export data helped limit losses. Palm oil dropped 2.6% due to rising inventories, though demand from India and China and rising oil prices provided some support. A temporary US-China trade agreement with tariff reductions also influenced the market.
FERTILIZERSRecent days have seen a sharp drop in CFR prices for urea, NAM, and SAM in the Brazilian market. On one hand, expectations are that China may resume urea exports in the coming months, a bearish factor. Moreover, Brazil is currently outside its peak purchasing season, as nitrogen demand typically increases later in the year. On the other hand, the MAP market remains tight, and phosphate prices have risen since last week, potentially worsening farmers' exchange ratios. Lastly, KCl prices increased again, continuing an upward trend seen in recent weeks.
LIVESTOCKIn the steepest price drop week of 2025 so far, the spotlight was on Mato Grosso. After starting the week at R$335/@, the state ended Friday at R$320/@ — a R$15 decline in just five days. As a result, prices in Brazil’s top cattle slaughtering state aligned with those of São Paulo after weeks of disparity, with both ending the week at the same level. A key factor behind this was the extension of slaughter schedules, which in São Paulo increased from 10 to 14 days. In the replacement market, feeder cattle prices dropped in line with corn’s decline. In the futures market, May contracts approached R$300/@, trading around R$304/@. November contracts also fell but remained high, ending the week at R$339/@, down from R$347/@.
SUGAR AND ETHANOLSugar prices saw a supportive week following steep April losses. The most liquid raw sugar contract #11 (SBN5) rose 3.4%, closing at US¢17.78/lb. Fundamentally, there were few reasons for the gain beyond a technical rebound. Northern Hemisphere harvests are complete, with limited price impact. In Brazil’s Center-South, the outlook remains broadly optimistic, reinforcing the lack of concrete bullish fundamentals.
Ethanol falls after tax adjustment pressure
After a sharp increase caused by the PIS/COFINS tax hike on hydrated ethanol in early May (around R$0.05/L), prices in São Paulo’s spot market declined again, ending the week near R$3.28/L, impacted by the start of the 2025/26 harvest.
COFFEEArabica and robusta futures closed the week with mixed results. In New York, the most active arabica contract rose 0.6% to US¢387.75/lb. In London, the most traded robusta contract for July fell 1.2%, ending at USD 5,226 per ton.
On the fundamental side, tight supply and low inventories continue to support international prices. Meanwhile, market participants are monitoring Brazil’s harvest progress. Despite a smaller crop — typically bullish — increased robusta production and harvest progress offer some short-term relief. The market also closely watches the impact of higher prices on global consumption and Brazilian weather conditions.
COCOABetween May 2 and 9, cocoa futures rose in global markets. Shorter-dated contracts saw the most gains, while longer-dated ones were more moderate. This reflects increased short-term uncertainty over bean availability in West Africa, following reports of lower quality and partial shipment rejections. In contrast, longer-term contracts benefited from improved rainfall in the region, supporting development of the 2025/26 main crop, which begins in October.
COTTONCotton prices fell 180 points this week, breaking through moving average support levels. Despite a difficult week, current prices remain above early April levels. The bearish pressure can be attributed to uncertainty over the US-China trade war in the short term, which fuels downward pressure from globally high stocks and favorable early planting conditions in the US.
OILBrent futures ended last week up 4.27%, trading at USD 63.91/bbl on Friday (May 9). WTI followed suit, rising 4.68% to USD 61.02/bbl. After hitting four-year lows early in the week, prices recovered on hopes that US-China negotiations could ease trade tensions and reduce the impact on global economic activity and oil demand.
DIESELLast week, the most active NY Harbor ULSD contract rose 2.3%, ending Friday (May 9) at USD 2.0664 per gallon. Diesel prices climbed alongside crude futures, driven by optimism surrounding US-China trade talks and lower US stockpiles. Notably, for the third straight week, the spread between NY Harbor ULSD and WTI continued to widen, closing at USD 25.88/bbl (+0.41%).
GASOLINELast week, the most active RBOB gasoline contract rose 4.4%, closing Friday (May 9) at USD 2.10 per gallon. Futures tracked crude oil higher, buoyed by optimism over the US-China trade deal, despite a slight increase in US gasoline inventories.
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