Key Points
- Short term upside in price is now in focus – across all categories as some optimism returns – this situation highlights how much of a precipice the market was on before the rains came..
- Q1 2025 Beef exports reach a new Q1 high, monthly volumes for March were very strong considering the Brisbane port lost nearly a week’s worth of work. A great recovery.
- Clear skies for the next week with warmer weather will drive pasture growth and really assist the season.
Supply
- From a feedlot and processor perspective, a lot of rejigging has had to be done. If more localised cattle supply can’t be accessed for the buyers, prices will have to move higher to encourage selling to cover gaps.
- Mixed bag in the saleyards, looking at some of the southern markets, numbers actually improved across some key yards, namely CTLX Carcoar – a reflection of the lack of rains these areas missed out on.
- March beef exports reached 112,422 tonnes – a slight 5k tonne reduction on Feb-25 volumes but higher than March 2024 by 5,800 tonnes. Q1 25’ beef exports were the highest Q1 on record.
- Its an impressive effort for exports to ramp back up so strongly following essentially a week shutdown for the largest beef export port in the country of Brisbane due to ex TC Alfred AND it reaffirms the demand for our product is still there despite all the global noise.
Demand
- Demand for restocker cattle is going to be very good over the next few weeks – producers with an oats crop or season assured will be chasing lighter stock to trade through winter.
- A lot of gap filling for feedlots and processors as mentioned above and subsequently as they move to replace supply with more local cattle, their offers have had to lift to meet the market to encourage producers to sell – this doesn’t mean their broader demand has suddenly ramped up, it just means to secure stock they have to pay up in the short term.
- This issue will subside over the month and moving into May as more numbers come forward and country dries out.
Price
- You can’t blame producers getting excited after not having much of a season and then getting 4-8 inches of really decent genuine rain at near perfect timing with some growing days left in the season before winter – so weaners at $4.50-$5 are very much now in play.
- Cows are back! You’d have to say so far in 25’ cows, have been the most volatile market for reasons that don’t make sense, other than getting over booked in March.. now they’re priced at their highest level (nationally) since December 2022 at 319c/kg lwt.
- The two red lines below are January 2025 until now, the cow market has already had swings of 60c/kg lwt in the space of 3 months – that’s volatility and unnecessary volatility at that because the fundamentals and export price for trim hasn’t moved near as much…
Weather
- ECMWF 7 day accumulated forecast below – clear, dry weather for most of the country will be welcome. With the temperature forecast below indicating mid 20’s to low 30’s for many regions, this warmer weather with clear skies will really get grass growth moving. An excellent outcome at a key time in the season for this to happen to deliver a good body of feed into winter post the rains.
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