The Outlook

arlan_suderman_3

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities
Economist

StoneX Financial
Inc.- FCM Division

"U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated [on Aug. 25] that it will likely require an economic slowdown to bring inflation down to the 2% mandate, considering the scope of the broader services sector in the inflation equation. The service sector is heavily dependent on labor, which continues to see rising wages. Powell emphasized that "two percent is and will remain our inflation target," which is the key line of his speech in my opinion."

Source: Perspective: Midday Commentary for August 25

Vincent_Deluard_3

Vincent Deluard

Director - Global
Macro Strategy

StoneX Group Inc.

"That was fast. In a couple of months, we went from “hard landing” to “soft landing”, and eventually “no landing”. The GDPNow estimate of 3.9% for Q3 validates my favorite neologism: a trampoline landing."

Source: The Trampoline Landing and Why I am Bearish - August 2023

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Josh Cannington

Vice President -
Interest Rate Derivatives

StoneX Group Inc.

“Understandably, Mr. Powell maintained the cautious stance and did not close the door on the possibility of further rate hikes should it prove necessary. Possibly the key is in his words: ‘We see the current stance on policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring and inflation.’ This does not suggest that they won’t hike in September, so the Fed funds may have overshot. Again.”

Source: USD Rates Commentary April 13

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