Dairy market insights to help you succeed

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All forecasting is a mix of art and science. We try to exhaust the science before we resort to the art, but both are necessary. Prices are forecasted with an iterative process that finds the milk price level that balances supply and demand globally at an annual level.

We believe the world market is where the last marginal buyer and last marginal seller find each other. Any country with extra product usually tries to export it, and any country with a deficit looks to import. It is the relative supply of exportable supply and the demand for that product that sets dairy prices.

Milk production is forecast for each of the major dairy exporters based on lagged milk prices, feed costs, weather, seasonality, trends, government policy and other country-specific variables. We then forecast domestic demand to determine how much surplus will be available to export.

On the demand side, we build individual demand models for the 27 largest importers and group the remainder of the countries together and develop a demand model for them as well. The demand models are driven by milk price, income, population, foreign exchange and other country-specific variables.

Since milk prices affect both supply and demand models, the two supply and demand models can be linked and the milk price is adjusted until the quantity exported equals the quantity imported to find the market-clearing price for milk. Individual dairy product prices are forecast based on the market-clearing milk price assuming that the relative returns from producing different dairy products equalize over time.

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