Precious Metals talking points 112023: Weekly round-up for StoneX Bullion; Gold still consolidating, Fed still attracting attention; Diwali vibrant

Precious Metals Talking Points:  Gold still consolidating; Fed still attracting attention; Diwali vibrant

  • Gold trading a $61 range over the past fortnight
  • Currently slightly lower on balance, holding around $1,970
  • Silver has been more positive, after dropping towards $22 it rallied hard to more than $24 before easing
  • While gold’s range was 3.2% (as a percentage of the low) over the week, silver’s was 10.3%, which is wider than the normal 2-2.5 beta
  • Much of the silver move looks like short covering
Rhona O'Connell
Head of Market Analysis, EMEA & Asia; 
+44 203 580 6115; mobile +44 7384 833 897

Gold still consolidating; Fed still attracting attention; Diwali vibrant

  • Gold trading a $61 range over the past fortnight
  • Currently slightly lower on balance, holding around $1,970
  • Silver has been more positive, after dropping towards $22 it rallied hard to more than $24 before easing
  • While gold’s range was 3.2% (as a percentage of the low) over the week, silver’s was 10.3%, which is wider than the normal 2-2.5 beta
  • Much of the silver move looks like short covering

The past fortnight can be divided into two more or less equal parts, with gold and silver prices declining in the first half and rallying in the second.  In the first week the markets came under pressure as a number of Fed officials took a cautious stance over the prospect for interest rate cuts.   Most notably towards the end of the week, Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed would have no compunction about additional policy tightening if necessary.  This helped to keep gold on the defensive, despite the fact that he was saying nothing different from previously, noting that the Fed would proceed with care (as they clearly don’t want to derail the recovery).

Gold; still consolidating

image 84388

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Since then the atmosphere has changed slightly with a series of numbers suggesting that the recovery is slowing (retail sales undershooting, a 0.5% fall in the monthly Producer Price Index, a fall in manufacturing production capacity utilisation to 74.7% and falls in both import and export prices, although the latter could be a function of dollar strength).  This helped give gold some renewed strength, although as we note above, ranges have been narrow. 

Gold, silver and the ratio; year-to-date

image 84389

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Silver’s move in the second half of the period might be seen as surprising given that 60% of silver demand is industrial and that gold wasn’t moving by much, but there were two days in which the rally was short and sharp, and this does suggest short covering and technically-driven activity.

At the fundamental end of the market, Dhanteras and Diwali were celebrated last week; traditionally the most auspicious days of the Hindu calendar for giving and receiving gifts, notably gold.  This year was a lively one as post-COVID pent-up demand coursed through the Indian populace.  In dollar terms, gold imports into India in October were reportedly up 95% to $7.2Bn and silver imports were up by 125% to $1.3Bn.  Demand was robust despite high prices and particularly so for silver.

Gold in rupees; seasonality chart

image 84390

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

It is also interesting to note that there was a substantial outflow of silver from the LBMA vaults in October, with some 1,192t (4%) and some of this could very well have been destined for India.  Metals Focus regularly monitors Indian flows and the most recent publication says that preliminary figures show Indian silver imports of 1,180t; this is a 23% y/y jump and 757% M/M!   Looking at the chart suggests cumulative imports over January-September were only ~970t (and compare that with a typical 4,000-6,000tpa historically). The years 2000-2001 were much lower while 2022 were sky high, with about 10,000t feeding the pent-up post-COVID interest.  It does look as if they were on fire in October; and there had been a reasonable dip in the rupee price during the month.  India is unlikely to be the whole answer to the LBMA drawdown, but must have had an influence.

image 84391

Source: Metals Focus

Futures positioning;

Gold: dropped from $2,007 on 30th Oct to a low of $1932 on the 13th; rally started n 13th and spot closed at $1,964

Negative sentiment returning for the most part with longs down by 24t (5.5%) and shorts up 19.4t or 10%.   Net long down 18% to 200t from 243t and vs a 12M average of 194t.

Gold COMEX positioning, Money Managers (t)

image 84392

Source: CFTC, StoneX

Silver: price dropped from $23.30 on 3rd November, bottomed at $21.88 on the 13th, closed $23.07 on the 14th .

The reverse of gold with a 20% (819t) increase in longs and a 5.1% (207t) contraction in shorts; net long bounds up from 56t to 1,078 against a 12M average of 1,761t. 

COMEX Managed Money Silver Positioning (t)

image 84393

Source: CFTC, StoneX

Exchange Traded Products

In the ETP sector, the first half of November has seen the sellers again with the upper hand, with a loss of 16t in the period to 10th November and an estimated four tonne contraction in the following week.  There has been some scattered buying, generally at the lower prices and no interest as yet into the rally; but nothing of note, leaving the holdings at the end of last week at 3,234t, a drop year-to-date of 238t.  For context, world gold mine production is roughly 3,700t.

Silver has been similar, with sporadic days of net purchase, but sentiment has remained cautious, unlike the slight shift in sentiment among the Money Managers on COMEX.  Unlike gold there was little by way of reaction to falling prices; buying had no real pattern to it. For November to date the funds have shed a net 174t (less than 1%) to 21,961t.  World silver mine production is in the region of 26,000tpa.


There is still no overriding force in place to move these metals out of their prevailing ranges.  Attention should now turn to the Middle Eastern envoys that are going to China and other south-east Asian nations in an effort to try and broker peace in the Israel/Hamas conflict;  if stalemate persists then gold should continue to find some support, but progress could take prices lower.

  20 November 2023 Previous week % change Year-to-date Range Jan 2022 onwards Range as %
          Min Max  
Gold (pm LBMA price) 1,981.05 1,941.65 2.03% 7.48% 1,628.75 2,048.45 25.77%
Silver (LBMA price) 24.00 22.50 6.67% -3.62% 20.09 26.03 29.54%
Platinum (pm LBMA price) 901.00 853.00 5.63% -16.73% 850.00 1,128.00 32.71%
Palladium (pm LBMA price) 1,040.00 970.00 7.22% -42.06% 963.00 1,952.00 102.70%
S&P 500 4,514.02 4,415.24 2.24% 18.04% 3,783.22 4,588.96 21.30%
$:€ 1.0915 1.0686 2.14% 2.32% 1.0467 1.1236 7.35%

Source: Bloomberg, StoneX

Related tags: Precious Metals

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
See why StoneX is a partner of choice

Let’s get connected

To learn more about how our customized financial solutions can help you stay one step ahead in the global markets, contact our team today.

Select your Location

Contact us


By submitting this form, you are sending StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries your personal information to be used for marketing purposes. View our  Privacy policy  to learn more.

If you're an existing customer, please direct any inquiries to your StoneX sales team.