Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 21

Perspective: Morning Commentary
Arlan Suderman
Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst


November 21 – U.S. Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly lower this morning, with the 10-year Treasury just a few ticks lower at the time of this writing, as the market waits for the release of Federal Reserve minutes this afternoon. The trade will parse language from that Oct-Nov meeting, even though the market has all but eliminated expected chances for further rate hikes thanks to slowing inflation indicators. The trade sees a 99%+ chance for interest rates to remain unchanged in the Fed December meeting, which would mark the third straight unchanged result. Dow Jones futures are showing a slight drop today after a strong session yesterday.


The Chicago Fed’s October National Activity Index fell to a -0.49 reading, compared to an unchanged average trade estimate, with September’s reading revised lower from 0.02 to -0.02 as well. Readings below zero indicate below-trend growth in the national economy. Existing home sales data for last month is on tap later this morning as well; the expected result there of 3.89 million homes would be down from 4.04 mln in September and continue an overall downtrend for the housing market that has continued since February, and really since last January overall.


Sources say Qatar could announce a deal as soon as today to release 50 women and children hostages in exchange for a four or five-day pause in fighting in Gaza, following weeks of diplomatic efforts from a number of countries. Israel would stop flying surveillance drones over northern Gaza for a period each day as part of the agreement. More than 1,200 people have been killed since the attacks began six weeks ago, with almost 250 hostages in captivity as fighting rages on between Israel and Hamas.


The grain trade seems to be uncertain about its stance on Brazilian dryness – understandably so, as Brazil is a massive country and its in the midst of a very different recent weather pattern split between north and south. Our lead forecaster Commodity Weather Group still expects good rains this week for dry center-west soybean regions, along with reduced temperatures, though concerns remain overall as chances shift back to the south next week. CBOT January soybeans have posted bullish moves now to start each of the last three weeks but have ultimately closed lower by the last two subsequent Friday afternoons; the market is on a reduced time frame this week due to the Thanksgiving break, off Thursday and with a slightly shortened session on tap Friday.


image 84462

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
See why StoneX is a partner of choice

Let’s get connected

To learn more about how our customized financial solutions can help you stay one step ahead in the global markets, contact our team today.

Select your Location

Contact us


By submitting this form, you are sending StoneX Group Inc. and its subsidiaries your personal information to be used for marketing purposes. View our  Privacy policy  to learn more.

If you're an existing customer, please direct any inquiries to your StoneX sales team.