Daily Coffee Report - 11/20/2023

Arabica Coffee Bounces Sharply Higher Ahead of FND
StoneX Coffee Team

Arabica coffee futures for March delivery settled 450 points or a 2.7% higher Monday at 171.15 cents a pound. A strong recover surprised short players that were expecting further losses, after two days of declines that appeared to be the beginning of a major fall with possible target near the 160s level. The continue drop of the cert stocks contributed to add support to the market, however a recent increment of the pending grading could signal a bottom for the stocks that reached a 24 -year low last week. So far, the majority of the stocks added to be grading are from Africa countries, while traditional coffees from Brazil and Honduras will be probably next to come. Moderate rains covered Brazil’s main coffee producing areas over the weekend and are expected to continue this week, helping the development of the new crop. The dollar continues to devaluate on expectations of a less aggressive policy by the Federal Reserve, after the lower inflation data last week. Cert stocks were unchanged at 289,699 bags. Pending grading remains at 14,675 bags. The market will be closed on Thursday in observation of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Robusta Jan24 contract settled at $2505 with a 2554/2471 range. Slow choppy day with very little commercial activity. All the action was on Arabica today ahead of FND and Robusta very much felt forgotten. Origin were noted more by their absence compared to the last few sessions. This is reflected in the low volumes, only 7.5k lots traded on the Jan24 contract. Structure also hardly moved with only 2.5k Jan/Mar trading between 66/78. No notable option trades.

At the time of writing

USDBRL 4.8659 -0.85%

USDCOP 3962.1 -1.56%

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Related tags: Coffee

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