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Gold's calm exterior hides a bond market that is quietly setting the terms for its next move. As Treasury yields climb and Federal Reserve policy signals shift, the relationship between rates and gold is becoming impossible to ignore.
Daily coffee report
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
July 20 – Both commodities and stock futures firmed in trade early this morning as we prepare to start a new week. Fighting continues to escalate in both the Middle East and in the Black Sea Region this morning, elevating risks for food and energy commodities, while the U.S. economy continues to show solid growth. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, which is modestly elevated from where it has been much of this month, but it by no means reflects panic on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 100.9 this morning, as it has been trending slowly lower since late June. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.57%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel after hitting a five-week high overnight, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are firmer, led by soybeans that continue to have strong domestic demand along with steady Chinese buying on the export front.
Oil markets are once again driven by diplomatic developments rather than physical supply changes, making geopolitical headlines the dominant force behind short-term price action. As negotiations between the United States and Iran move in and out of focus, traders are rapidly repricing crude oil in response to every shift in political sentiment.
Silver's latest correction is being driven by macroeconomic headwinds, but its long-term industrial demand story may remain intact. If AI investment resumes after the current market reset, silver could be positioned to benefit from the next wave of technology-driven demand.
Dollar to reflect the search for indications from the Federal Reserve, new US tariffs, and ECB's interest rate decision
Aluminum markets are adjusting to a new reality as supply chains prove more resilient than many expected despite ongoing geopolitical disruption. Alternative trade routes, recovering production and stronger output from China are beginning to outweigh the supply shock that initially drove prices sharply higher.
Politics, economic, geopolitics and investor sentiment; inflation components
Understanding the U.S. dollar requires more than tracking domestic economic releases because relative performance across the euro, yen and pound ultimately drives the currency's direction. Central bank divergence and shifting expectations across major economies are becoming more influential than any single U.S. data point.
While there were a few highlights of volatility this past week, the broader markets managed to maintain this risk-on oriented stability. Can optimism hold fast – much less expand – amid an escalating US-Iran war and the first wave of AI company earnings?
Daily coffee report
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