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Record U.S. beef prices have turned imported beef destined for U.S. ground beef into a profitable arbitrage for exporters such as Paraguay. Tariff relief has done little to change that math, because a record-low cattle herd keeps the price gap open.
Renewed Gulf issues boosting yields, precious on the slippage, technicals deteriorating
October 19 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the week, with signs of a rotation of money flow back into tech after last week’s ugly selloff, as the Nasdaq shows the strongest open while the Dow Jones looks to start the day in the red, a reverse in course from last week’s trade. The VIX has fallen notably from Friday’s surge to a three-month high above 22, now hovering near 18.6 at the time of writing. The dollar is just above unchanged to start the morning, sitting near 101.83 after falling from the 18-month high put in near 103 last Wednesday. Treasury yields are looking to start the week modestly higher, with 2-year yields just above 4.75%, 10-year yields above 5.10%, and 30-year yields at 5.443%. Crude oil is taking back some of Friday’s sharp gains that pushed nearby WTI to a one-month high and nearby Brent to a five-month high, as both are down roughly 1.5% on the day to trade near $97.60 and $107.90, respectively. Elsewhere in the commodity sector, the ags are quietly mixed to start the week.
Rising crude prices powered FTSE 100 energy stocks and gave the UK index its best week in six months. Its commodity-heavy mix and light tech exposure turned a long-standing weakness into an edge as the Nasdaq fell.
Brazil's E30 blend mandate has already drained ethanol inventories by about a quarter, and the next step to E35 depends on extensive testing. The test outcome decides whether anhydrous ethanol demand grows sharply or falls back under an interim mandate.
The upcoming U.S. and Israel elections have put event risk back at the center of the Brent crude oil outlook, with escalation and de-escalation now mapped as separate paths. Against that, Russian sanctions waivers and slowing oil demand growth are building a fundamental case for a pullback from overbought conditions.
AI companies that borrow heavily to fund growth are paying more as oil-driven inflation keeps pressure on Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve. CoreWeave and Anthropic show how rising rates turn debt into a deadline for profitability.
Australia's cattle herd sits at a similar point in its cycle to 2015, the last time El Niño drove slaughter to 37-year highs and beef production to a record. Below average rainfall and heavier female cattle sales now put Australian beef supply and export capacity in 2028 and 2029 in focus.
Elevated U.S. Treasury yields are hitting Nasdaq tech stocks twice, by lowering the value of future cash flows and raising the cost of funding the AI buildout. With a Federal Reserve rate hike expected and Meta's capital expenditure projected to more than double, the cost of AI spending is under close watch.
Energy-import-reliant nations are turning crops into fuel at home, lifting global biofuel demand as the Middle East energy shock lingers. Brazil's higher ethanol mandate shows how that shift keeps more corn off the export market and opens room for U.S. supply.
Dollar expected to reflect electoral race, bets on US interest rates, IPCA-15, and AI concerns
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