By: John Kicklighter, Head of Market Research
Talking Points:
There is an almost embarrassing amount of top flight event risk over the coming week. Combine that with the seasonal expectations for volume and volatility that picks up in the month of March along with the open question around what theme will dominate the macro landscape, and the threat of financial market volatility is particularly strong ahead. While collective speculative appetite is the end towards which markets ultimately head, we shouldn’t ignore the means by which we head down the path.
Chart of Average Monthly S&P 500 Performance and Volume
Source: John Kicklighter
The ‘tariff’ headlines are a venue that should be monitored for volatility, but there is an inconsistency to updates and follow through on the threats. While President Trump reiterated a March 4th implementation of the 25 percent tax on Canadian and Mexican imports – and an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods – skepticism remains.
Chart of Google Trend Financial News Search of ‘Trump’, ‘Interest Rates’ and ‘Economy’ (Daily)
Source: Google Trends
With the potential to tap multiple fundamental themes, the US February PMIs for manufacturing and services (Monday and Wednesday respectively) from the ISM may not seem the most remarkable data on the docket at first. However, these figures are good proxies for economic activity from the world’s largest economy. In particular, the manufacturing activity report can offer a better look into a sector that was supposedly the disadvantaged economic area that triggered the Trump’s first term trade war in 2018-2019.
If we are looking for a more comprehensive measure of economic activity from the US, services account for more than three quarters of output and jobs for the country. For an additional perspective, consider the contrast that will eventually arise from China’s updated growth forecast that typically comes out of the National People’s Congress which kicks off Wednesday.
Chart of ISM US Services and Manufacturing Overlaid with S&P 500 (Monthly)
Source: John Kicklighter, ISM
From trade wars and economic activity, the focus will shift to monetary policy on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) is arguably one of the most dovish central banks among its largest peers considering the Bank of Japan is hiking rates and the Federal Reserve has indicated it was pulling out of its dovish dive – though whether they have already found the bottom on rates already or not has yet to be determined. The ECB is expected to cut its benchmark rate another -25bps (basis points) which would take it to 2.65 percent, which would be materially lower than the Fed, BOE, BOC, RBA and RBNZ.
Given we are dealing with forward looking markets, perhaps more important than the actual rate decision is President Lagarde’s press conference and then the ECB staff’s macroeconomic projections that are scheduled afterwards. With EURUSD’s elevated volatility and given the shift of US trade tensions towards the EU, a meaningful ECB update could stir deeper waters.
Chart of EURUSD and EU-US 2-Year Yield Differential (Daily)
Source: John Kicklighter, TradingView
At the end of the week, after running a gauntlet of scheduled US event risk and unpredictable headlines, we have the Friday release of February nonfarm payrolls (NFPs). The ISM service sector employment component, ADP private payrolls figures and Challenger job cuts numbers are just a few indicators that will intensify interest in the BLS number and charge speculation; but the government report commands the financial headlines – not to mention the attention of the Federal Reserve for it dual mandate.
Should the employment report maintain strength, it could reinforce the central bank’s seeming shift towards levelling out rates well above what was expected by the markets approximately six months ago. Alternatively, a troublingly weak figure could upend economic health views and embolden the Trump administration to accelerate and/or escalate its growth-through-trade-rebalance strategy – which would be on balance a further threat to global forecasts and risk trends.
Calendar of Top Global Macro Event Risk
Source: John Kicklighter
----Written by: John Kicklighter, Global Head of Content
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A softer run of U.S. data is doing more to move the U.S. dollar than any chart, with a jobs report and an inflation print set to land back to back. A cooler U.S. CPI report would hand the Federal Reserve room to ease, and that prospect is already loosening the dollar's grip.
The euro-dollar has bounced off multi-year support, but the more important shift is happening in interest rate expectations. As bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike fade, the U.S. dollar is quietly losing the tailwind that carried its recent strength.
The U.S. dollar is the single biggest swing factor for gold and silver, and its long-term trend is now being tested. A confirmed turn in the dollar could reset the outlook for precious metals, either capping them further or opening room toward new records.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
