By: Matt Weller, Head of Market Research
Talking Points
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the markets since 1990. As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Seasonality – S&P 500 (Price-Only)
Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, March has been a relatively bullish month for the US stocks, with the broad S&P 500 index sporting an average (price-only) return of +1.2% over the last 35 years. After a lackluster start to the year (essentially flat since January 1st), investors will be hoping that the longer-term bullish trend kicks in ahead of the typical “summer doldrums.” Key storylines to watch for the stock market include the potential for US tariffs and any potential deterioration in the labor market, which has remained remarkably resilient over the last few years.
Nasdaq 100 Seasonality – NDX (Price-Only)
Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Looking at the above chart, the Nasdaq 100 has historically gained a bit of ground in March, with an average return of +1.0% since 1990. Long the leader among the US indices, the Nasdaq 100 is hitting a speedbump so far in 2025 with traders apprehensive amidst high expectations (and accordingly high valuations) around the “AI Revolution” theme, highlighted by soft YTD performance in the quintessential AI darling, Nvidia.
Volatility Index Seasonality – VIX Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
March has historically been a month where stock market volatility falls, with the VIX index contracting by an average of -2.4% since 1990. That said, there may be different trends based on the election cycle as traders come to grips with the policies of the new Administration, as we’ve seen over the last couple months. As of writing, there is tremendous uncertainty around the situation in Ukraine, along with fears of a potential trade war between the US and the rest of the world, keeping the VIX near the top of the 12-23 range that has constrained it for the last two years (absent one brief foray above 60 last August).
Gold Seasonality – XAU/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Turning our attention to commodities, March has been the second-worst month for gold performance, with an average loss of -0.2% going back to 1990. After an impressive rally through January and most of February, the yellow metal swooned back below $2900 to end last month, prompting traders to question whether the move was just a shallow counter-trend pullback or the start of a more significant top. Given the strong underlying uptrend going back to late-2022, the balance of risks may be skewed toward a continued rally until proven false.
WTI Crude Oil Seasonality – WTI Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX.Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Last but not least, WTI Crude Oil has historically rallied in March, with an average gain of 1.6% over the last 35 years. While it can be useful to understand the historical seasonal tendencies in certain environments, developments on the trade front, OPEC+ increasing drilling activity and any stimulus from China’s Two Sessions meeting will likely be a bigger driver for WTI this month than the historical seasonal trend. As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major markets and the global economy.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A sharp semiconductor selloff exposed how much of a modern index can ride on a single sector. The bigger lesson for long-term investors was that concentration, not the chips themselves, was the real risk sitting inside broad benchmarks.
The S&P 500 trades more heavily than almost any instrument on the planet, which is exactly why traders lean on it to read the market's mood. Understanding how it reflects risk-on and risk-off sentiment turns a single index into a wider gauge of where confidence is building or fading.
Tesla is prioritizing artificial intelligence, autonomy and robotics even as higher investment weighs on margins and free cash flow. The shift challenges investors to decide whether near-term pressure is destroying value or building the platforms that could drive Tesla’s next growth phase.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
