By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Fertilizer markets are under strain. Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, dissects the forces driving today’s volatility.
China normally accounts for about 10 percent of global urea exports, yet it “has not really existed for the last year and a quarter,” Linville noted. Buyers worldwide are waiting to see whether Beijing will reopen flows—and on what terms. “The world needs details. The world needs firm details before it can really start moving forward”. Until those details emerge, price volatility is likely to persist.
Phosphate tension is even sharper. First-quarter Chinese exports collapsed to roughly 111,000 t versus the usual one million. With existing US duties on Morocco, Russia, and China—and now a tariff case against Saudi Arabia—North America faces a narrowing pipeline. As Linville put it, “Phosphates in kind of trouble for now”. Even a 90-day trade truce with China does not yet include duty relief, leaving import options limited.
Spring demand has drained domestic stocks. For May, Linville reports “extremely difficult” conditions for new urea supplies; only isolated truckloads are available. Manufacturers may eke out a few extra tonnes, but solid inventories remain scarce. Retailers are therefore pushing customers to lock in June allotments well ahead of the usual timetable.
Linville’s principal advice is counterintuitive: resist the urge to duck and wait. Instead, buyers should increase communication with suppliers—asking what is available, when, and at what price. Early commitment can secure product and mitigate last-minute price spikes. While uncertainty around Chinese policy and trade duties will linger, proactive dialogue offers the best defence against unexpected shortages.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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