By: Matt Weller, Head of Market Research
S&P 500, Treasury Bond, Gold, and Bitcoin Market Volatility Key Talking Points
The raging volatility storm from early April has undoubtedly receded as the Trump Administration has generally moderated its trade stance and policies, but traders the world over are curious – is the volatility tempest behind us, or are we merely in the eye of the storm before volatility spike again? Below, we highlight how anticipated volatility in major markets has evolved so far this year, highlighting relative changes in expected market moves in the stock, bond, currency, and cryptoasset markets:
Source: StoneX, TradingView
As the table below shows, expected volatility for major markets currently sits in the bottom quartile over the last month, and with the exception of gold, in the bottom quintile over the last quarter. Volatility in Bitcoin (DVOL) is particularly subdued, in the bottom vigintile (in the bottom 5%) over the last month, quarter, and year:
Source: StoneX, TradingView
Detailed volatility outlooks for major markets follow:
S&P 500 Volatility Outlook (VIX)
Starting with the stock market, the VIX, Wall Street’s “Fear Gauge” of implied volatility in the S&P 500 has drifted to 18, down more than two-thirds from the peak near 60 seen in early April. At this level, the VIX suggests that options traders expect daily moves of roughly 1.1% in the S&P 500 and weekly moves of about 2.5%. Compared to the average VIX reading of 19.5 since inception in 1990, stock market volatility is near average.
Solid earnings from AI darling Nvidia last week capped off a stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings season dampening stock market volatility and fears of a global recession, though the international trade situation remains highly unpredictable, hinting that the risks may be tilted to the upside for stock market volatility in the coming weeks.
Treasury Bond Market Volatility Outlook (MOVE)
Like the stock market, implied volatility in the Treasury bond market has declined sharply in recent weeks as well. With the Fed seemingly on hold for the foreseeable future (through at least July based on current market pricing) and the “left tail” of a trade-driven global recession reduced, a period of relatively low volatility looks likely heading into the proverbial summer doldrums.
Gold Market Volatility Outlook (GVZ)
Gold itself continues to consolidate in a broad range between about $3100 and $3400, keeping the longer-term uptrend intact while allowing both realized and expected future volatility to recede back toward long-term baselines.
With fractures emerging in long-maintained geopolitical and trading relationships, volatility in the commodity markets may be nearing a near-term nadir. Gold in particular is enjoying a secular bullish trend – which tends to bring generally lower volatility – amidst a falling US dollar and questions about the US’s position in the global economy.
Crypto Market Volatility Outlook (DVOL)
As in the far more mature stock, bond, and commodity markets, the outlook for Bitcoin volatility remains generally low. In fact, the expected volatility for Bitcoin is in the lowest percentile looking back over the last year!
Broadly speaking, volatility in the Bitcoin has generally declined since the blockchain’s “Genesis Block” in 2009. Ultimately, growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an emerging asset class and a maturing set of increasingly institutional investors should continue to push Bitcoin’s volatility lower over time, regardless of US trade policy. A renewed global trade war might accelerate Bitcoin adoption as investors seek alternatives outside traditional finance, potentially leading to even lower volatility.
Moving forward, the broad outlook for volatility is more balanced, with the potential for further trade “deals”, the situations in geopolitical hotspots, along with the health of the global economy, as the key flashpoints to watch moving forward. US-based traders may want to monitor Friday’s NFP report, along with next week’s closely-watched CPI release as macroeconomic indicators that could start to inject volatility into the markets.
What are the major events and indicators on tap for the global economy that could charge volatility in markets and reshape deeper fundamental themes? Sign up for the updated Global Macro Calendar updated each week with a two week look ahead of the top events!
Sign Up-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research, StoneX Self-Directed
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