2023-2024 European Coffee Report Shows Imports Higher with Consumption Stable
CoffeeNetwork (New York) – The 2023-2024 European Coffee Report has been released by the European Coffee Federation (ECF).
Imports
European total imports of green coffee reached 3.63 million tonnes in 2022 (+4.7%). Imports in 2022 showed a positive trend all over Western Europe (+6.3% yoy), but Western Europe’s figures in 2023 (-10.0%) will certainly drag down total European imports (by over 334,000 tonnes). Therefore, it can be estimated that Europe’s total imports of green coffee will not exceed 3.3 million tonnes in 2023, quite far from the pre-pandemic peak level reached in 2016 and 2017 with 4.1 and 3.9 million tonnes, respectively. European green coffee imports had stabilised near the 3.5 million tonnes per year mark after the Covid pandemic (2020-2022), but the decline seems to resume in 2023. Green coffee imports into Europe would have shrunk by close to 20% during the 2016-2023 period.
In 2023 those countries included in the ‘Western Europe’ region imported on aggregate 3.03 million tonnes of green coffee, a -10.0% variation compared to 2022. This harp decline more than compensates the healthy growth experienced in 2022 (+6.3% yoy) and brings Western Europe’s green coffee imports to a substantially lower level than the average of the last decade. Western Europe includes EU27 countries plus Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Iceland. Switzerland is the main importer (outside the EU27 bloc) with 0,18 million tonnes of green coffee imported in 2023 (-8.4%), while the UK imported 0.16 million tonnes in 2023 (-9.1%). Both countries adhere to the negative trend experienced all over Europe.
EU27 countries absorb 87.7% of total green coffee imports into Western Europe (80.4% of Europe’s total imports) with 2.65 million tonnes in 2022 (-10.2% yoy). EU27’s imports recovered in 2022 (+5.9% yoy), but that spike did not compensate the negative effects of the Covid pandemic and the statistical effect of Brexit. The sharp decline in EU27’s green coffee imports during 2023 seem to respond to an apparent general negative trend (pre-pandemic) compounded by the current economic scenario, both in producing countries and in Europe. Germany, the largest importer in the EU27 bloc, has reduced its imports by 17.1% in 2023 (ca. 174,000 tonnes), explaining more than half of EU27’s imports shrinkage.
Finally, the figures for Central and Eastern Europe are only available for 2021 and 2022, although the World Bank WITS database no longer published updated data for Belarus and the Russian Federation in 2022. Countries in Central and Eastern Europe decreased their imports of green coffee in 2022 to 0.27 million tonnes (-12.0%). The trend was negative in most markets, with the incognita of the Russian Federation’s current alternative trade channels, probably hampering an accurate statistical analysis (modelled yoy decrease of 11% in 2022). According to the UN Comtrade database, the Russian Federation is now sourcing most of its green coffee via Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Belarus. It has to be noted that the Russian Federation represents approximately two thirds of green coffee imports in the Central and Eastern Europe region. Serbia is the second largest importer in this region and its green coffee imports decreased by 6.3% in 2022, while Ukraine’s imports also declined by 11% in the same year.
Focusing on the EU27 bloc, green coffee imports persisted along the path of further concentration in traditional major importing countries during the analysis period (2021-2023). Although Germanyremained the largest importer with 33.9% of EU’s green coffee imports coming through its ports in 2023 (900,449 tonnes), during that year German imports have experienced a sharp decline (-17.1% yoy). Italy, the second largest importer, channels 23.5% of EU imports after posting the second largest growth in volume (+25,546 tonnes) during the analysis period. Coffee traffic through Belgian ports decreased by 27% in 2023 (-60,489 tonnes), virtually cancelling the growth experienced in previous years. Belgian imports are decreasing (-60,489 tonnes) in tandem with the rise in imports to the EU coming through the Netherlands (+97,904 tonnes), pointing to a shift in the port of entry of green coffee in the Benelux from Antwerp to Rotterdam. However, Belgium still imported 12.8% of total green coffee into the EU in 2023 and is the third largest importing country in the EU, while the Netherlands channelled 6.0% of imports. Spain was the fourth largest importer with 230,625 tonnes in 2023 (8.7% of total green coffee EU imports). These five EU countries (Germany, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands) channelled on aggregate more than 82% of total EU imports of green coffee in 2023. With the exceptions of France (5.6%) and Sweden (3.1%), all other countries’ share of EU green coffee imports stays below 2%. In all, green coffee imports are further concentrating their point of entry in the EU27 bloc due to the confluence of two factors related to economies of scale:market/industry size (Germany, Italy) and location of the busiest ports in Europe (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Spain).
Suppliers
Brazil remains the largest supplier of green coffee to EU27 countries with its market share well consolidated above one third of total EU27 imports (34.7% in 2023). However, Brazil lost the “one-million tonnes” mark in 2023 after supplying just 921,545 tonnes of green coffee Brazil’s deliveries sharply decreased in 2023 (-11.5%). If comparing 2021 and 2023 figures, Brazil’s exports to EU27 countries have shrunk by 111,560 tonnes. Although in line with the general negative trend in 2023, Brazil’s market share has also shrunk from 37.1% in 2021 to 34.7% in 2023. It is important to note that Brazilian coffee deliveries were severely affected by adverse weather. Brazil’s 2022 harvest was estimated to suffer a loss of at least 10 to 12 million bags due to frost-damaged coffee alone.
Viet Nam supplied 632,750 tonnes of green coffee to the EU27 area or 23.9% of its total imports in 2023. However, Viet Nam’s figures are far from its peak export levels reached in 2018 when EU27 countries acquired mora than 758,000 tonnes of Vietnamese green coffee. In spite of this, Vietnam’s market share has managed to climb steadily and is now closer to the 25% mark. Brazil and Viet Nam have consistently ranked as the top-two suppliers to EU27 countries during the last decade, typically supply over 55% of the total green coffee imported by this economic area (58.6% in 2023).
Each of the other green coffee origins supplying the EU27 bloc hold a market share below 10%.
It is worth noting that China has vanished from the ranking of top exporters of green coffee to EU27 countries in 2023. It delivered 21,100 tonnes in 2022 and only 6,500 in 2023 (-69.2%). China’s virtual disappearance from the green coffee exporting panorama –and Indonesia’s decline to some extent as already mentioned– can be explained by their thriving domestic and regional markets, which obviously leaves less room for exports and could soon turn into hunger for imports in the case of China.
Arabica/Robusta Ratio
The overall ratio of Arabica-to-Robusta green coffee imports seems to remain stable throughout the years at slightly below two-thirds to slightly above one-third: 63.8% of Arabica coffee compared to 35.6% of Robusta coffee was imported by EU27 countries in 2023.
Within the ‘Arabicas’, the share of ‘Brazilian Naturals’ slightly increased –Brazil and Ethiopia’s exports declined but less than the average– with ‘Colombian Milds’ also edgg up thanks to origins such as Kenya and Tanzania. ‘Other Milds’ also increased their share thanks to growth in Honduras. Imports of ‘Robusta’ coffee are driven by growing imports from Viet Nam. All origins benefited from a substantial reduction of the ‘Others’ rubric.
Types of Imports
Green coffee imports represent close to 95% of the total volume of coffee and coffee-related products imported into the EU27 area. In spite of this, the analysis of other coffee products is also relevant in order to better understand the European coffee market. Although roasted and soluble coffee trade is modest in volume, it is much more relevant in terms of value and market position.
Green decaffeinated coffee imports have substantially increased during the last decade. They jumped by 36.9% in 2023 to 21,754 tonnes, a figure that almost doubles the imported volume in 2016.
Soluble coffee imports were following a downward trend before the pandemic (47,584 tonnes in 2018), but changes in consumer behaviour boosted at-home coffee consumption to record levels. Soluble coffee benefited from this trend and imports of soluble coffee rocketed to 63,577 tonnes in 2020. Imports of soluble coffee to the EU27 area in 2020 were also somewhat distorted by the effects of Brexit, since the United Kingdom instantly became the bloc’s largest supplier with more than 22,000 tonnes. After returning to closer to average levels in 2021, imports of soluble coffee picked up in 2022 and again in 2023 when they have reached 64,534.3 tonnes with yoy growth at 8.7%
Exports
The EU27 trade bloc is not only a major importer of coffee, but also a significant exporter of green coffee and coffee-based finished products, specially roasted coffee. EU27’s imports of green decaffeinated coffee and regular roasted coffee are modest compared to exports of those same products, while imports and exports of decaffeinated roasted coffee and soluble coffee (extracts) are within the same order of magnitude. The trade balance for green decaffeinated coffee clearly favours the EU27 area with exports topping imports by approximately 37,000 tonnes in 2023, although this figure has been steadily shrinking during the analysis period from 68,500 tonnes in 2021. Roasted coffee’s trade balance is even more favourable to the EU27 trade bloc in terms of volume, and it must be noted that its impact is even larger if considered in terms of value. EU27 countries exported just under 217,000 tonnes of roasted coffee (including decaf) in 2023, exceeding imports by approximately 147,000 tonnes. This superavit has consistently widened during the past decade with a 25% increase on aggregate during the period of analysis (2020-2022).
Exports of roasted coffee in 2023 have also interrupted the pace of growth followed during the last decade. EU27 countries exported 216,870 tonnes of roasted coffee, including decaf (-1.8% yoy). It is a modest decline if compared to the general trend in the global coffee market, and especially considering that EU27 area’s exports are close to 95,000 tonnes higher now than in 2016. Again, since Brexit all these figures include deliveries to the United Kingdom (40,000 tonnes) as exports (before intra[1]EU trade), significantly amplifying the otherwise undeniably positive trend in EU27’s exports of roasted coffee.
Soluble coffee exports also managed to increase to 83,562 tonnes (+7.1% yoy) in 2023. As explained in previous sections, soluble coffee exports expanded during the pandemic and have consolidated at higher levels during the analysis period, with the added statistical boost of exports to the UK.
Consumption
The EU27 coffee market remained flat in terms of volume (+0.2%) during the analysis period (2021- 2023) at 1.74 million tonnes in each of the three years covered. The stability of a mature sophisticated market as is the case of the EU is not the only factor explaining this lack of dynamism and other variables have to be considered. First, economic stagnation in the EU27 area and sticky inflation rates are damaging private consumption levels, especially in northern EU countries. The Nordic countries have all posted strong negative growth during the analysis period, with volume declining by 11.7% in Finland, 4.2% in Denmark, and 0.9% in Sweden, with the Baltic countries following a similar pattern. Eastern EU countries have also experienced negative growth during the analysis period (Hungary: - 16.4%; Czechia: -4.1%; Romania: -2.5%; Slovakia: -2.0%), with the exceptions of Poland (+1.9%) and Bulgaria (+8.2%). Among major EU27 markets, France (-7.3%) and The Netherlands (-5.5%) have also suffered a downturn in coffee volume sales, while Austria (+4.4%) and Belgium (+4.4%) managed to post modest growth during the analysis period. The largest EU27 market, Germany, has also managed to withstand the negative trend (+5.2%) and the same applies to Southern EU markets: Portugal (+10.1%), Italy (+2.4%), and Spain (+2.4%).
The evolution of green coffee prices is putting additional strain on an already price-tensioned industrial scenario in the EU27 area. As a consequence, and in spite of flat growth in volume sales, the coffee market value climbed to EUR 26.33 billion in 2023 (+6.5% yoy) and adding 14.0% during the analysis period. Eastern EU markets have been more affected than average by these inflationary pressures, with coffee sales value increasing substantially in spite of modest or absent growth: Poland (+44.0%), Lithuania (+42.5%), Romania (+31.3%), Bulgaria (29.7%), Slovenia (+29.1%), and Hungary (+27.5%)
It has to be noted that fresh coffee and instant coffee show diverging trends withing the retail channel. In most EU27 countries, volume sales of fresh coffee through retail channels have suffered a deeper fall than those of instant coffee.
Alexis Rubinstein
