On the afternoon of Wednesday, July 9, the President of the United States sent an official letter to the Brazilian government announcing the imposition of 50% tariffs on all U.S. imports originating from Brazil. Among the products most impacted by this measure is coffee, given the relevance of the United States as the main destination for Brazilian coffee exports.
Two groups would be strongly affected by the measure: Brazilian coffee exports and, on the other hand, the U.S. coffee industry and American consumers. The U.S. is the world’s largest coffee consumer and the main buyer of Brazilian coffee. In 2024, Brazil exported 8.13 million bags of coffee to the U.S., representing more than 16% of Brazil's total coffee exports for the year, according to data from Cecafé (Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council).
In addition to the U.S., other key destinations for Brazilian coffee exports include Germany (7.6 million bags), Belgium, Italy, Japan, Spain, among others, also according to Cecafé. From the American perspective, USDA data shows that in 2024, Brazil accounted for nearly 34% of all coffee imports into the United States, highlighting the strong dependency and strategic link between the two markets.
The imposition of tariffs would significantly reduce the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee in the U.S. market, hindering the product's access to the country and putting pressure on export chain margins.
On the other hand, the measure is also expected to have significant negative impacts within the U.S. The American coffee industry and consumers will be directly affected. Since 2024, global coffee prices have seen sharp increases, driven mainly by climate issues affecting production. This has led to rising consumer prices in the U.S. as well.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that the 12-month accumulated inflation for roasted and ground coffee reached 32.4% as of May 2025, already putting pressure on consumption in the country. The implementation of these tariffs is likely to further intensify consumer-level inflation.
According to the National Coffee Association (NCA), the economic impact of the coffee industry in the U.S. reached $343.2 billion in 2022, being responsible for approximately 2.2 million jobs. Also according to the entity, each dollar spent on imported coffee generates $43 in value within the American economy, highlighting the sector’s strategic importance in the United States.
Another relevant point is the trade relationship between the United States and Canada. Canada is one of the main destinations for roasted and ground coffee exports and for re-exports of raw coffee carried out by the U.S. However, this relationship also faces challenges, as Canada recently imposed tariffs on products from the United States, which may further affect the competitiveness of the American coffee industry.
Additionally, the United States also imposed tariffs on other major coffee suppliers to its market: 10% on Colombia, 20% on Vietnam, and 32% on Indonesia. This indicates that the main coffee exporters to the U.S. are being hit by tariff barriers, reinforcing the outlook that the American coffee sector will be one of the most impacted by this trade policy.
