Recap of day's options activity, macro data and vols
Feb grain options expired today.
The January Cattle on Feed report was largely neutral to slightly supportive. Cattle on feed as of January 1 came in exactly at expectations at 96.8% of last year, marking the lowest January inventory level in nine years and reinforcing the longer-term tightening trend in feeder supplies. December placements were modestly above expectations at 94.6% but still represented the lowest December placement level in a decade, underscoring continued constraints on feeder cattle availability. December marketings were slightly higher than expected at 101.8% and the highest in four years, reflecting aggressive front-end marketings and strong packer pull. Overall, the report confirms smaller inventories, limited placement flow, and ongoing leverage for the fed cattle market as 2026 unfolds.
Today’s dollar weakness and accompanying strength in commodities may partly reflect shifting expectations around future Federal Reserve leadership. Market participants increasingly view Rick Rieder’s emergence as a potential Fed Chair as indicative of a more market-sensitive and growth-aware policy approach, with greater emphasis on financial conditions and less tolerance for prolonged restrictive real rates. That perception supports a softer dollar outlook and is constructive for commodities, which tend to benefit from lower real rate expectations and improved global affordability. While broader macro and positioning factors remain at play, Rieder’s rising profile appears to be reinforcing the move and adding confidence to the trade.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is pressing the European Union to provisionally implement the long-delayed Mercosur trade agreement, arguing that Europe can no longer afford delays as global trade becomes more fragmented and competitive. While the public case centers on urgency, competitiveness, and democratic legitimacy, the underlying driver is economic self-interest. Germany runs one of the largest trade surpluses with the United States, making preservation of the current trade framework highly advantageous—much like China, which also benefits from the status quo. As U.S. and Chinese trade strategies become more assertive and transactional, surplus economies are moving quickly to lock in market access and supply-chain flexibility. Framed as a strategic necessity for Europe, the Mercosur push is better understood as an effort by Germany to protect its export-led model and reinforce favorable trade dynamics before political and legal resistance can slow the process further.
Precious metals extended their surge, with spot silver breaking above $100 an ounce for the first time, underscoring the intensity of the current safe-haven bid across hard assets. Strength in silver is being reinforced by record-setting gains in gold, a weaker U.S. dollar, and rising geopolitical and policy uncertainty, which continue to drive capital toward inflation hedges and stores of value. The move also reflects growing investor concern around monetary credibility, fiscal trajectories, and global trade fragmentation, pushing metals into price discovery mode after years of constrained supply and rising structural demand.
January University of Michigan consumer sentiment was revised higher in the final reading, rising to 56.4 from a preliminary 54, modestly above expectations. While sentiment remains historically depressed, the upward revision suggests some stabilization in consumer confidence late in the month. Importantly for markets, one-year inflation expectations edged down to 4.0% from 4.2%, easing concerns that elevated inflation psychology is becoming further entrenched. The combination of firmer sentiment and slightly lower inflation expectations leans marginally supportive for risk assets and helps reinforce the view that disinflation progress, while uneven, has not fully stalled.
China’s outreach to Brazil highlights Beijing’s determination to preserve the current multilateral, rules-based global order at a moment when U.S. policy is shifting toward a more bilateral and enforcement-driven approach. China has been a direct and outsized beneficiary of the status quo, leveraging open markets, limited trade enforcement, and global institutions to scale exports, secure critical supply chains, and expand geopolitical influence. Its emphasis on “global unity,” the Global South, and the central role of the UN reflects a clear effort to defend a system that has underpinned its economic rise. Brazil, under Lula, fits naturally into this framework as a key commodity supplier and multilateral advocate. The message is less about ideology and more about preservation — China will actively build coalitions and promote globalist rhetoric to protect an international structure that continues to work decisively in its favor.
Corn
B 300 w1 430 straddles 9
B 500 h 420 c 13 vs 430 1/2
S 1000 h 420 p 2 3/8 vs 430 1/2
B 200 z 410 p 8 7/8
S 1000 h 435 c 4 5/8
B 2000 h 435 c 4 ¼ to 4 5/8
S 1000 h 445 c 1 7/8
S 1500 h 430 p 6 ¼ to 6
S 500 k 420p/460c strangles 11 1/8
S 500 n 440/450/490/500 call condors 2 7/8
B 7500 march 450 c 1 to 1 1/4
B 1000 h 405 p 5/8
B 5000 h 420 p 2 1/8 to 2 3/4
B 2000 z 600 c 4 ¼
B 1500 h 430 straddles 12 7/8 to 13
S 650 h 425p/430c strangles 10 ½ to 10 3/8
B 1500 h 430/400 ps 7 3/8 to 8
S 300 n 440 c 20
B 1000 h 430 c vs s 750 h 440 c and 1750 h 450 c 20 1/8 db vs 427
B 300 u 440 c 25
B 500 h 440 c 2 1/2
S 200 h 425p/435c strangles 10 ½
B 600 n 440 p 19 1/8 vs 439 1/4
S 500 k 420 p 6 1/8
S 500 n 410p/470c strangles 15 1/2
S 500 n 420 p 9 1/4
B 7500 h 450 c 1 to 1 1/4
On a block
B 500 z 430p/480c strangles 35 5/8
Beans
B 2000 w5 1060 p vs s 4000 w5 1040 puts 3 to 3 ¼ db
B 1500 h 1060 p 12 1/8 to 12 3/8
S 500 sd h 1110 c 3 ¾ vs 1082 3/4
S 2500 h 1040 p 5 ¾ to 5
B 500 w2 1100 c 3 5/8
B 800 w5 1060 p 4 1/2
B 2000 h 1200 c 1/2
B 1500 h 1060 p 11 ¼ to 11 1/2
B 1000 h 1060/1040 ps 5 7/8 vs 1069 3/4
S 100 u 1070p/1170c strangle 65 3/8 vs 1076 1/2
B 1000 h 1060/1040 ps 5 7/8 vs 1070
B 300 k 1080 straddles 54 7/8 to 55
S 100 k 1040 p vs b 200 k 980 p 7 cr
B 200 n 1120/1150 cs 9
S 100 h 1070 straddles 29 5/8
B 1000 h 1060/1040 ps 5 7/8 vs 1069 3/4
B 2000 h 1050/1040 ps 2 1/2
B 750 h 1070 straddles 29 ½ to 30
B 2000 h 1040/1020 ps 2 3/4
B 300 x 1100 c 1110 c 43 ¾ vs 1082 1/2
B 100 j 1100 c 14 1/2
B 1000 h 1030 p 3 1/4
S 400 h 1060 c 20 vs 1069 1/2
On a block
S 300 k 1080 c 28 7/8 vs 1083
B 400 n 1080p/1120c strangles 60 1/4
Soymeal
B 1000 h 300 c 6.10 to 6.50
B 1500 h 410 c .15
B 100 k 345 c 2.05
S 200 k 315 c 6.50 vs 302.3
B 1000 w5 295/290 ps 1.10
B 300 h 310 c 2.90 to 2.95
B 250 h 285 p 1.45
B 300 h 300 c vs s 600 h 320 c 2.75 vs 299.2
B 100 k 305/335 cs vs s 280 p 2.90 db
S 1000 n 310 16.80 to 16.00
B 150 h 325 c 1.35
B 1500 w5 305 c 1.65 to 1.75
B 1000 h 310 c 2.65 to 3.30
S 1000 n 300 p 10.95 to 10.40
S 150 h 295 p 4.55
S 1000 n 305 p 13.70 to 13.05
B 1000 k 300 c 10.65 cs 300.00
B 750 h 305/320 cs 2.20 to 2.75
S 300 h 290 p 3.15
B 500 h 300 c 6.00 vs 298.5
Bean oil
B 1200 h 53 p 1.050 to 1.080
S 450 k 50 p 1.025 to 1.000
S 500 w5 5325/5475 cs .670
S 400 k 52 c 4.560
B 300 k 57/62 cs 1.190
B 2000 k 60/65 cs .790 to .795 vs 5470
B 500 h 49 p .135
S 250 h 5150p/5650c strangles 1.200
B 400 n 58/63 cs 1.195
S 500 h 50 p .215 to .205
S 200 h 50 p .205
B 1000 h 50 p .210 to .230
S 500 h 59/61 cs .200
B 500 h 56 c 1.00 to 1.070
B 200 k 48 p vs s k 62 c .510 to .490 cr
On a block
B 500 n 60 c 2.140
B 1000 n 60 c 2.090
B 1000 h 60 c .220
Wheat
B 1000 h 550 c 4 ½ to 5 5/8
S 100 u 530/460 ps and u 615/770 cs 38 3/8 cr
B 400 w5 530/545 cs 2 5/8 vs 522 1/2
S 1000 h 555 c 3 ¾ to 3 5/8
B 1500 h 530 c vs s h 520/510 ps paying 5 5/8 vs 523 3/4
S 1000 z 600 c 38 5/8
S 200 n 550/600/650/700 call condors 10 3/8
S 100 h 535 c 7 1/4
B 150 h 500/490 ps 2 1/8
On a block
S 100 j 520p/540c strangles 29 vs 532 3/4
S 100 k 520p/540c strangles 38 3/8 vs 532 1/4
S 100 n 535p/555c strangles 58 ¾ vs 544 3/4
S 300 k 490 p 6 7/8 vs 530
Kc wheat
B 500 h 515/455 ps and 500 h 530/585 cs 18 1/8 db
B 500 h 520 p 5 ¾ vs 536 1/2
B 400 k 545 straddles 50 1/2
B 100 k 800/900 cs 1/2
B 250 w5 550 c 2 ¾
B 100 h 510 p 3 5/8
B 200 h 505/490 ps 1 1/4
B 425 j 560 c vs s h 540 c 3 ¼ db
Ethanol
S 300 h 170 c 3.00 to 2.75
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C G6 | 430.50 | 6.50 | 430 | EXP | EXP | 8.75 | EXP | 6.64 | 24.50 | 0 |
| C H6 | 430.50 | 6.50 | 430 | 13.8 | 0.60 | 8.75 | 3.74 | 6.64 | 24.50 | 28 |
| C J6 | 438.00 | 5.75 | 440 | 13.6 | 0.30 | 7.75 | 3.75 | 6.36 | 23.06 | 63 |
| C K6 | 438.00 | 5.75 | 440 | 15.2 | 0.40 | 7.75 | 4.19 | 6.36 | 23.06 | 91 |
| C N6 | 443.75 | 5.25 | 445 | 16.9 | 0.30 | 7.00 | 4.72 | 6.07 | 21.72 | 154 |
| C U6 | 442.00 | 4.25 | 440 | 19.0 | 0.20 | 6.00 | 5.29 | 4.50 | 16.17 | 210 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S G6 | 1067.75 | 3.75 | 1070 | EXP | EXP | 10.25 | EXP | 8.94 | 13.30 | 0 |
| S H6 | 1067.75 | 3.75 | 1070 | 13.1 | 0.80 | 10.25 | 8.81 | 8.94 | 13.30 | 28 |
| S J6 | 1079.50 | 3.25 | 1080 | 12.6 | 0.40 | 10.00 | 8.57 | 8.51 | 12.51 | 63 |
| S K6 | 1079.50 | 3.25 | 1080 | 13.1 | 0.30 | 10.00 | 8.91 | 8.51 | 12.51 | 91 |
| S N6 | 1092.50 | 3.50 | 1090 | 14.0 | 0.30 | 9.75 | 9.63 | 7.99 | 11.61 | 154 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W G6 | 529.50 | 14.00 | 530 | EXP | EXP | 15.75 | EXP | 6.01 | 18.03 | 0 |
| W H6 | 529.50 | 14.00 | 530 | 22.3 | 2.10 | 15.75 | 7.44 | 6.01 | 18.03 | 28 |
| W J6 | 539.00 | 12.50 | 540 | 22.8 | 1.00 | 14.25 | 7.74 | 5.59 | 16.46 | 63 |
| W K6 | 539.00 | 12.50 | 540 | 23.4 | 0.70 | 14.25 | 7.94 | 5.59 | 16.46 | 91 |
| W N6 | 551.00 | 12.00 | 550 | 25.0 | 0.30 | 13.75 | 8.68 | 5.21 | 15.00 | 154 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWG6 | 540.75 | 15.00 | 540 | EXP | EXP | 17.25 | EXP | 6.85 | 20.12 | 0 |
| KWH6 | 540.75 | 15.00 | 540 | 22.6 | 2.30 | 17.25 | 7.70 | 6.85 | 20.12 | 28 |
| KWJ6 | 550.50 | 14.50 | 550 | 23.4 | 1.30 | 16.50 | 8.11 | 6.64 | 19.15 | 63 |
| KWK6 | 550.50 | 14.50 | 550 | 24.0 | 0.90 | 16.50 | 8.32 | 6.64 | 19.15 | 91 |
| KWN6 | 563.00 | 14.75 | 565 | 25.1 | 0.40 | 16.50 | 8.90 | 6.50 | 18.32 | 154 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOG6 | 53.99 | 0.21 | 54 | EXP | EXP | 0.99 | EXP | 0.74 | 21.64 | 0 |
| BOH6 | 53.99 | 0.21 | 54 | 25.8 | -0.20 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 0.74 | 21.64 | 28 |
| BOK6 | 54.52 | 0.19 | 54.5 | 28.5 | 0.20 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.72 | 21.02 | 91 |
| BON6 | 54.85 | 0.20 | 55 | 27.2 | 0.20 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 20.10 | 154 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMG6 | 299.90 | 3.70 | 300 | EXP | EXP | 4.70 | EXP | 3.50 | 18.52 | 0 |
| SMH6 | 299.90 | 3.70 | 300 | 20.3 | 2.10 | 4.70 | 3.83 | 3.50 | 18.52 | 28 |
| SMK6 | 302.10 | 2.80 | 300 | 18.1 | 0.90 | 4.00 | 3.44 | 3.28 | 17.25 | 91 |
| SMN6 | 306.70 | 2.80 | 305 | 18.0 | 0.60 | 3.70 | 3.48 | 3.07 | 15.87 | 154 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
tables bloomberg
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