Any Disruption Particular Weather Could Trigger Rallies: Cofco International

By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

Fri, 07 Nov 2025, 17:05

Any Disruption Particular Weather Could Trigger Rallies: Cofco International

Cartagena (Coffee Network )- In the global coffee market, any disruption, particularly weather-related could trigger sharp rallies, keeping volatility high, Felipe Augusto Lima de Oliveira, global research director of coffee for Cofco International, said.

Until recently the 25/26 cycle was projected to remain in deficit, extending the trend seen in the past four years. However, recent adjustments in both production and consumption have shifted the outlook toward a finely neutral balance which indicates that 25-26 is possibly the transition year, though the bias in near-term fundamentals still lean bullish, Lima de Oliveira, global research director of coffee for Cofco International, said during the 89^th coffee exporters association summit today.

The anticipated turnaround in 26/27 relies on a full Arabica recovery in Brazil supported by the on-cycle dynamics and improved weather as well as sustained gain on the Robusta production worldwide.

“If that surplus materializes, it could place downward pressure on prices, especially for Arabica as global demand remains skewed toward Robusta,” he added.

Despite the improving balance, market tightness remains justified. Certified stocks are historically. Additionally, the cumulative deficits since 21/22 totalizes 22 million bags, leaving the market very vulnerable, he added.

“In short, from a fundamental standpoint, our outlook still leans toward a “less bullish” territory in the short-term given the balanced 25-26 crop, and then turns bearish in the mid and long-term,” he added.

Robusta production shows a strong momentum in key origins

Vietnam 25-26 is trending higher year on year supported by multiple factors: a natural yield rebound to on-cycle, record-high tree density per hectare, and continued expansion of planted areas with newer, higher-yielding varieties. This increase in productive area is critical for Vietnam to even surpass the 30 million bags mark, previously considered the country’s upper limit, Oliveira said during the 89^th Colombia’s coffee exporters association summit.

Unlike Arabica, Conilons in Brazil were not affected by the adverse weather that reduced conversion ratios in 25/26. Great crop husbandry and area expansion led to highest production ever 26 million bags. “Flowering for the 26/27 crop is complete and is in excellent condition, reinforcing confidence in keeping similar production levels in the next season,” he added.

Global Consumption

Mature markets such as the European Union and Japan are showing year on year declines on consumption. Similarly, Cofco noticed signs of deceleration in the US and key emerging markets like China.

Among producing nations, Brazil remains by far the largest consumer, yet consumption is also falling there due to record-high retail prices to final consumers.

Overall, global consumption appears to be testing a ceiling near 180 million bags, signaling a potential market saturation.

“This is occurring in an environment of sluggish economic growth, persistent inflation and erosion of consumer purchasing power,” he added.

Arabica

In Brazil, 25/26 Arabica output in Brazil confirmed a smaller crop due to drier weather. In 26-27, it expects a positive rebound of 8% to 10 million bags due to the return of the on-cycle in key regions.

In Colombia, they confirmed a disappointed 25-26 crop hit by excessive rainfall. Ethiopia continues to outperform their expectations, leading it to revise their crop estimate upward to 9 million bags for the first time ever.

Production from Peru and Central America remains stable year on year. Favorable weather suggests potential for modest upward revisions in the upcoming months.

By Diana Delgado

Coffee

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