Arlan Suderman’s Market Outlook | StoneX

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 12 Apr 2024, 08:00

Arlan Suderman’s Market Outlook

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In this webinar series, Arlan Suderman presents his USDA Report analysis and the potential commodity market movers he’s got his eye on each month in 2024. Click the link below to access recordings of the webinars to get his market insights.

You can also register for the entire year of Arlan Suderman’s Market Outlook webinars here. In addition to his monthly analysis, you’ll also get access to Arlan’s quarterly outlooks. You will receive calendar invites and reminders for each webinar throughout the year, ensuring you get all his market insights.

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Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 25

September 25 – The grains and oilseeds are taking the lack of breakthroughs from yesterday’s U.S. / China negotiations as bearish, and I’m not just talking about pandas. Although the overall tone of the summit was one of reconciliation and diplomacy, a welcomed development amid the environment of ongoing geopolitical tensions, there have been no concrete announcements of fresh Chinese purchase agreements for U.S. agricultural commodities as of the time of writing. It’s encouraging to see a two-month extension to the existing trade truce, now extended to January 10, as well as the plans for additional meetings between the two sides during this span, but some of the existing speculative length coming into the meeting is clearly reacting with disappointment to the duration of the extension and lack of a broader agreement. The fact that we’re continuing to see China purchase U.S. soybeans, as evidenced by yesterday’s fresh flash sale announcement, is an encouraging sign, but we still have not seen any evidence of actual progress on the alleged $17B in non-soy ag purchases—nor have we seen confirmation from China on this agreement.

Mike CastleFri, 25 Sept 2026, 12:57

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 24

September 24 – Crude oil prices dropped and the major stock indexes jumped following Reuters reporting the U.S. and Iran exploring a phased path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. easing its economic blockade on Iran. We warned coming into the week that it was likely to be a volatile, headline-driven one amid the various diplomatic pushes happening all at once in New York, and today’s trade is a perfect reminder of that. While the renewed signs of diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran are certainly a notable development, I would again emphasize caution regarding how much can realistically be accomplished this week, particularly with IRGC-linked figures continuing to issue renewed threats of escalation at the same time. Reuters' reporting suggests both sides are actively discussing potential frameworks, but significant obstacles remain and neither appears willing to relinquish leverage without corresponding concessions. Still, even progress toward a partial or phased reopening could improve market confidence that an eventual resolution may be coming into view. The VIX has fallen in response, now hovering around 15.5 after touching a fresh high since last Wednesday at 16.57 earlier in the session. The dollar remains in the green, holding near 101.22 at the time of writing as it remains near a two-month high. Treasury yields have had a volatile session as well, with 2-year yields now slightly lower into midday, trading at 4.88%, 10-year yields remain elevated as they trade near 5.13%, as do 30-year yields as they trade near 5.435%. The ags have lost steam into midday, with the grains and oilseeds now in the red across the board, save for soybean meal clinging to small gains, while the livestock sector is mixed with feeder cattle pushing higher.

Mike CastleThu, 24 Sept 2026, 17:06

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 24

September 24 – Angst in the bond market and increasing expectations of higher for longer interest rates has stock futures pointing to a lower open today, with trade likely to be volatile around headlines from today’s Trump/Xi meeting. Treasury yields yesterday rose to fresh multi-year highs across the curve, with the biggest moves seen in the long end. Most notably, 30-year yields made a new high not seen since 2004, 10-year yields made highs not seen since 2007, and 2-year yields made new highs not seen since early 2024. They do look to be coming off of these highs to start the day, with 2-year yields back down to 4.85%, 10-year yields at 5.10%, and 30-year yields at 5.40% at the time of writing. The VIX is pushing to its highest level of the week back above 16, but it’s worth noting this remains on the low-end of 2026’s trade. The dollar is continuing its surge higher as well amid the aforementioned rising rate expectations, posting another near two-month high above the 101.3 mark. Crude oil is bouncing from its recent bottom but remains notably lower than trade over the last two weeks, with nearby WTI trading at $93.70 and nearby Brent trading at $99.80 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with soybeans showing the most strength at the break with all eyes on today’s Trump/Xi meeting, with major implications for the sector.

Mike CastleThu, 24 Sept 2026, 13:29

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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