Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Sat, 04 Apr 2026, 03:31

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Market unravels as fuel cost, heavy supply and dry weather combine to push prices sharply lower

Key Points

Fundamentals remain sound for the sector, don’t forget that.
The market needs to pull itself together and hold its never – emotion is getting in the way of fundamentals and this instability can last far longer if not addressed.
The influence of producer emotion and the role it plays on markets is clear for all to see this week.

Supply

Coming into these short weeks, supply will back up into May, particularly on kill cattle if this rush to get stock out the door persists – a risk that producers need to consider instead of simply pushing the eject button.
Southern markets actually more restrained than the north and the push of supply is less concentrated in the south.
Feedlots and processors are well and truly either supplied to their needs or oversupplied – phones have been running hot all week.
- This is a classic case of the mob mentality of producers moving in unison and shows how the emotion of the market dictates terms.
- Remember processors are already at or very near capacity and we haven’t hit peak H1 seasonal supply – that comes in May…

Demand

As producers see finished rates ease, demand for light cattle has done the same – even in QLD where 80% of the state is experiencing an exceptional season… which gives you an idea on how this is driven by emotion not fundamentals
With phones running hot this week to deliver supply, feedlot demand has continued to wane due to the numbers presented, and that’s being reflected in both spot transactions and hedges taken via StoneX Cattle Forward Contract – the forward curve and trades booked are all sharply lower than the spot price.
Processors are in a similar situation as the feeders, with big numbers put forwards and bookings on space now pushing well into May for many plants.

Price

I had higher hopes earlier in the week, but that changed very quickly, Producers and the market needs to hold its nerve – the fundamentals are good but if the panic continues this sell down isn’t finished
This market shift to me is driven by producer emotion and nervousness – and again it shows how much of an influence that producer sentiment can have on driving market performance.
- Yes fuel is an issue, yes urea is an issue and yes there are dry regions, but the fundamentals are sound, the far south and north is experiencing strong seasons, buyer demand remains strong (processors & feedlots) and globally, a protein shortage has already been seen to be supportive of livestock markets – think cows in 2025.
Feeder grids back sharply this week, alongside direct to processors and in the yards – expect similar results today for the online sale.
What changes this? Rainfall may help with a system due into CQ in the next 2 weeks – northern NSW & Southern QLD desperately need good rain but that looks unlikely,
- This is why the market needs to take a breath and reassess the situation. Its very much risk off at present and that has the capacity to snowball as we’ve seen it do before and become uncontrolled.

Weather

An ordinary start for the top half of NSW and southern QLD in 26’ with rainfall well below average across this big cattle drawing area, at a time of year when generally the regions expect more rain that not.
The soil moisture map for the month of March adds to the narrative of a challenging winter ahead for northern NSW which relies heavily on its oats crop and winter pasture programs to get through the feed lull.

Meats & Livestock

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