Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Fri, 01 May 2026, 02:07

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Saleyard records broken as markets hold firm to slightly dearer on renewed southern interest

Key Points

National saleyard cattle yardings hit their highest levels since 2000 or when the National Livestock Reporting Service began reporting.
- Gives you a good indication of the value of saleyards, particularly as I mentioned a few weeks ago, when direct channels are unavailable, the yards become crucial.
Processor cow market has formally entered bear market territory, having fallen over 20% since its recent peak in early March
Producers in northern NSW have communicated to me how quickly this drought has come on, far faster than the 2019 edition.

Supply

I’m not convinced we’ve seen northern NSW run out of cattle just yet – last year in the south we thought surely they’d need to stop, yet cattle kept coming, and in the 19’ drought the same applied, I think the market will be surprised by the numbers of stock that are actually still to flow as more producers cut into core breeders.

On StoneX numbers, National saleyard cattle yardings last week reached 111,888 head – higher again than the previous week and the highest weekly volume since NLRS began reporting.
- Looking at the structural positioning of supply, its evident that the dry in Northern NSW has pulled forward big numbers of cattle, supportive of anecdotal comments from the market about turning off stock as weaners rather than holding through to feeder weights à what now needs to be considered is the shortness of those northern NSW cattle in H2 26’ and into 2027.
The sell down in the breeder herd + PTIC cows and heifers (Spring 2025 joined females) across these regions is likely to have longer term supply consequences for the market.
When April 2026 export figures are released next week, the sector is on track to export 135,000 mt, a slight rise on Apr-25 volumes, but comparing YTD numbers, would be up 14% or 62,000 mt compared to YTD 2025 figures.

Demand

Rain on the forecast for the south has lifted confidence and light cattle markets this week, particularly with a large southern contingent operating strongly across central eastern Australia
- The locals north of Orange may be disappointed if falls don’t eventuate over the next week for them (which looks unlikely) – but the additional competition on lighter stock was seen across the board with higher rates this week.
Speaking with southern buyers, they’re well and truly sniffing around and buying a few out of the north (Blackall) – reasoning wasn’t given but they are there looking for cattle.
I would suggest that southern buyers watching the weather forecast have gone a little harder on kill cattle this week to secure supply, under the view southern supply will shorten on the back of this forecast rain.

Price

Markets generally firm to dearer this week – but as I mentioned a few weeks ago – let’s see how the next fortnight plays out before we get a clear read.
- There is also an east coast low due for mid-May that I’m watching which will influence market performance dependent on how widespread west of the Great Divide it goes, particularly Northern NSW / southern QLD.
- The rain in this system will only lift confidence, its benefit at a production / agronomic level will be minimal.
- The rainfall forecast for the broader south has breathed some life into markets which is contributing to this pricing uptick.
Northern NSW stud season for Spring is likely to come under pressure this year, with a lack of demand from local buyers – with stud’s likely having to rely on their clients from other regions to support sales.
- Similar outcomes to the south in 2025 with reduced clearance rates and overall averages due to the seasonal challenges many are faced with.
The Processor Cow price has formally entered bear market territory this week, having fallen more than 20% (22%) since its most recent peak in early March.
- Restocker Yearling steers are getting very close to bear market territory, now down 16% since their peak in the same week as Processor Cows.
On Processor Cows, I’ll acknowledge that most of this easing cycle has been driven by strong supply, but have noted a few times throughout this year that I thought Cows would come under price pressure…
- And we haven’t even seen the Brazil supply pressure imposed on us once they turn their focus away from China and towards the US when quota is hit…

Weather

Having spoken with producers in Northern NSW over the weekend – the consistent theme I picked up was the speed at which this drought / dry conditions had taken hold – its far faster than the 2017-19 drought.
Month to date rainfall for April 2026 – a good indicator of how seasonal conditions are shifting in the south, and the distinct lack of rain through that central eastern region.

image-20260501120730-1

The far southeast across SE SA, VIC and southern NSW in line for this rain I’ve been watching for some time – if it delivers as forecast, the Autumn break should well and truly kick in with more on the way in W2 May.

Meats & Livestock

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