Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Thu, 09 Oct 2025, 23:45

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Angus Feeders under supply pressure as market mood dampens on hot & dry weather

Key Points

Hot and dry weather has in some parts spooked the market – forecast good falls for larger parts of the country over the next week should prove supportive of prices though.
Northern buyers are now operating on cattle throughout Victoria – with this trend set to continue as northerners dominate the weaner sales again in 2025/26
Angus feeder prices under pressure on the back of Spring supply – spreads with crossbreds now at 40c/kg lwt – their tightest since April.

Supply

Its amazing how quickly hot, dry weather can influence grazing conditions and in turn the overall “mood” of the supply chain.
Sept-25 beef exports at 139,000 metric tons, Year to September volumes in front of the record breaking 2024 figures for the same period by 16.5% or 159,000 t.
- My forecast from the H2 2025 Australian cattle market outlook report, released in July of 1.531 million metric tons now looks to be underweight.
Clearly last week when saying VIC slaughter numbers down due to a breakdown I hadn’t thought of the AFL grand final public holiday. Kill will be down in QLD,NSW,SA for this week when figures are released.
Paddock supplies of feeder cattle are very strong at present – big numbers moving.

Demand

That southern confidence issue I’ve mentioned a few times continues to rear its head – now reaching into mainstream media – this retreating confidence in the season is underpinning falling light cattle values in the south.
- The underlying outcome of this will be cattle with weight and condition in these southern markets will be very well supported moving forwards.
Feeder demand is staying strong but with cattle supplies building swiftly as the Spring turnoff ramps up, the necessity to compete has softened – despite the southern influence for finished and feeder cattle remaining.
Northern interest in isolated cases now buying well into parts of southern and eastern Victoria chasing light cattle – expect this trend to continue and the north to be a major presence at the upcoming weaner sales once again.

Price

Markets continuing to ease across the board – forecast rains over the next week, particularly in QLD should support pricing in that state, elsewhere hinges on the forecast rains outcomes – more downside is possible if falls don’t deliver.
Markets looking like they’re finding their way back to an even keel with profitability now returning for the feedlots in the January fed contract for 100-day cattle an important contributor to that
- Feedlots still tell me they’re losing money on Angus – so how long this persists will be an important situation to monitor for prices on those black steers and what kind of price outlook those feeders have if something doesn’t shift.
- I think the support for British X, Heifers and 100 day cattle will strengthen as that structural cycle out of Angus continues of profitability issues aren’t resolved.
Angus feeder prices feeling significant supply pressure – that price spread to crossbred steers delivered into the Downs is now 40c/kg lwt – down from over $1 in late July – it should narrow to near even spreads by November / December.

Weather

First of the wet season storms forecast to kick off for the north in the next week, those that are under these storm systems in the east will receive very timely falls – the downs / Maranoa regions in for a good drink which should be supportive of price values

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