Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 00:29

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Grainfed turnoff continues to shatter records, as full feedlots put the industry on notice

Key Points

The beef industry should sit up and take note of the ALFA / MLA Q4 Feedlot report which indicates that pens are at capacity – particularly in the major states as we near a drought in some major feeder supply regions.
Angus to crossbred spreads stand to nudge a $1/kg lwt again this winter – aligning with a production cycle that would deliver the boxed product into China in early 2027 before we hit quota.
This change sweeping across southern Australia over the next week will bring some much needed optimism – expect a kick in prices & buyers changing their behaviour off the back of it.

2025 Feedlot Results

Grainfed turnoff in 2025 hit 3.66 million head, rising a further 16.6% or 522k hd year on year.
- Compared to the 2023 lows, grainfed turnoff has risen 1.02 million head or 39% in 2 years – a great example of the growth the sector is experiencing.
National capacity in Q4 was at 92% - in line with the highest levels on record.
- I don’t want to sound negative but this should be ringing alarm bells for the beef industry with pens so full as we come round the bend into some dry weather for key feeder supply regions.
- The two majors (NSW/QLD) were at or near record capacity levels in Q4…
Grainfed production as a share of total reached its highest level since 2022 as grassfed kill continues to dwindle – a sign of the changing times.

Supply

Tomorrow we get ABS Q4 Slaughter & Production numbers – giving us a full calendar year view of 2025 à for what its worth:
- Cattle slaughter to hit 9.36 million head on my estimates, growth year on year of 1.06 million head or 13% and the 3^rd highest slaughter volume on record, only behind the 70’s.
- Beef production 2.89 million mt – 323,000 mt or 12.5% higher than 2025’s record year (based on calendar year cwt’s averaging 309kg/head)
Numbers ticked up in the yards this week whilst the direct volumes remain very strong – feeders have good coverage into mid March and are pricing cattle accordingly that way.
Supply will shorten in the south next week with this system moving through – monitor this to see how buying behaviour changes from southern buyers looking north to chase stock.

Demand

As expected demand generally has picked up for cattle, right across the board following weekend rains – producer interest has been sparked and light cattle prices reflect that.
In saying that, conversations with the trade suggest decisions are beginning to be or have been made in northern NSW about reducing demand for cattle from commission buyers and agents, with phones going quiet on orders – a sign of the seasonal uncertainty many are facing which is forcing a reduced demand outlook for light cattle in these regions.
Feeder demand has remained steady this week despite the rain – with many awaiting June 100 day contracts to be released to inform where bids can be made on cattle – I think they’ll have to jump regardless with the momentum this feeder job is carrying into next week.
- Higher supply has also quelled that need to lift rates.

Price

There’s a lot of “guessing” going on at the minute, buyers sitting tight, sellers expecting further rises – another good reminder of how emotionally driven the cattle market is.
In the yards at a restocker level, there’s very much a locality specific trend beginning to establish itself on rates for light cattle – Armidale & Dubbo today were considerably softer – with Dalby on Wednesday, stronger for the same articles – season the driving factor here.
- Queenslanders will be loving this though – plenty of opportunity to buy cheaper NSW cattle and ship them home.
I’m still a believer we’re going to see a strong pull for Angus feeders in mid winter – and as such, the Angus / Flatback spread will rise again to above 80c/kg lwt +, its likely to push a $1.
- Why? Because this winter window aligns perfectly with a 150-200 day feeding program, where the cattle can then be processed and exported to China before we hit quota again next year.

Weather

A good change due over the next week for the broader south (SA, VIC & Southern NSW) is the system to watch in the week ahead – albeit stormy, these falls will generate some renewed optimism in this market.
- It may force the southerners to make their presence a little more felt in northern markets for cattle off the back of this – keep an eye on that.

Meats & Livestock

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