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Base Metal Commentary

By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region

ALUMINIUM SNAPSHOT UPDATE: WILL PRICES BREAK ALL TIME HIGHS?
 
Natalie Scott-Gray
natalie.scott-gray@stonex.com
 
 
Aluminium was the second best performing base metal of 2021 (after tin), following robust fundamentals and a supportive macro environment; however, despite the overall tone for the base metals this year indicating more bearish parameters, aluminium is recording a 13% YTD price performance, leading the suite. As it stands, aluminium is trading at thirteen-year highs and speculation is growing that prices could rise above the record high of $3,317/t held in July 2008.
2022 BASE METAL LME 3M PRICE PERFORMANCE YTD
 
Source: Bloomberg
2021 BASE METAL LME 3M PRICE PERFORMANCE YTD
Source: Bloomberg
A Fundamental Perspective
The key drivers behind the robust performance for aluminium this year have stemmed from ongoing supply concerns, amid a backdrop of low stocks, while demand has remained resilient. Below we address these three key topics areas as they stand now:
Stocks 
•    Total aluminium stocks by end-January (as reported by CRU), which cover exchange stocks, producer stocks, reported stocks and unreported stocks, had fallen to their lowest level since January 2020. Aside from the month of October, outflows of inventory have occurred consecutively since the start of last year. The inventory to consumption ratio currently stands at 44 days. When this figure is below 45 days volatility follows. 
•    On a regional basis, stock levels within China have been in decline (monthly) since November and are currently standing close to their lowest level since the start of January 2021. Meanwhile, the drawdown in stocks outside China has been in almost constant decline since December 2020 and they are at their lowest level since April 2020. 
•    Something interesting to note here, to demonstrate the strain that aluminium supply chains have faced over the last year, is that China (which is responsible for 56% of global production), reversed its historic position as a net exporter of aluminium, becoming a net importer back in 2020 (at ~1Mt, due to China’s V-shape recovery) and again last year (at ~1.3Mt due to weakened supply). We forecast that China will once again be a net importer of aluminium this year, especially given the estimated pullback in capacity within the country. 
 
GLOBAL ALUMINIUM STOCKS
Source: Bloomberg, CRU, StoneX
 
 
GLOBAL AVAILBALE STOCKS (CHINA VERSUS ROW)
Source: Bloomberg, CRU, StoneX
Supply Concerns
China: COVID-19 Led 
•  
 China’s continued practice of zero-tolerance towards COVID-19 has impeded normal operations within the country over the last two years. As it stands, the latest disruptions are being felt within the Guangxi province Basie City (where China has implemented a no entry, no exit policy). It has been reported by SMM and Jinrui Futures Co Ltd that as much as 2.2Mt of alumina and 420,000t of aluminium capacity has been impacted respectively. Please note, the Guangxi province holds an aluminium capacity of 2.9Mt (7% of China total production), while Basie City holds an aluminium and alumina capacity at 5.6% and 11% of China’s total production. 
China: Emission Control Led
•    China’s goal of reaching zero carbon neutrality by 2060 (enacted by China’s adoption of its Dual Control Mandate), was the single largest driver behind the significant reduction in aluminium capacity last year (with curtailments between 3.3-3.8Mt). This year, with China hosting the Winter Olympic Games over the month of February (and clear skies being a priority), it has been reported that not only have steel mills in the north of the country been ordered to reduce or close operations, but nickel pig-iron operations and as much as 15Mt of alumina capacity (reported by SMM) have been impacted.  
SHFE ALUMINIUM PRICE VERSUS CHINESE THERMAL COAL PRICE
Source: Bloomberg
CHINESE ALUMINIUM PRODUCTION
Source: Bloomberg
Europe: High Energy Prices
•    Strained supply chains and high demand for energy within Europe and across the globe have resulted in elevated energy costs. Indeed, within Europe, current rising geopolitical tensions have placed further stain on natural gas supplies, which has forced smelters that produce high-energy intensive metals (such as aluminium and zinc), to reduce production or indeed go on care and maintenance. In addition to this, other issues in the region stemming from low reservoir water to technical issues at nuclear power plants have played their part, and CRU forecasts that as much as 750,000tpa of aluminium capacity could be curtailed by
end-March (~9% of European capacity). 
NAUTRAL GAS & BRENT CRUDE OIL VERSUS RUSSIAN SHIPMENTS OF NATURAL GAS
Source: Bloomberg
Demand
•    Demand for aluminium over the last two years has been highly regionalised, with China leading growth in 2020 (while consumption outside China slumped), only to reverse roles last year, with Chinese demand growing at around 6%, while demand outside China grew by double digits. Looking to this year, while we expect consumption outside China to remain robust (although at a lower level than in 2021), concerns have risen over the level of demand that is forecast for China itself, given the economic slowdown the country is facing (please note the IMF forecasts China’s GDP to drop to 4.8% from 8.1% in 2021). One of the largest sectors to be impacted within China is the property market, which has seen home prices decline and the number of new housing starts (that feed into new completions), dwindle in the highly indebted industry. Meanwhile, on the other hand, a forecast easing in semiconductor supply chains should lead to the unleashing of pent-up demand within the automotive industry, on which aluminium is highly dependent. In addition to this, the latest release of higher credit growth within China over January will be taken as supportive to consumption, with the Government standing true to its promise of ‘front-loading’ investment, with infrastructure supported by the issuance of special government bonds. 
CHINA PROPERTY NEW STARTS
Source: Bloomberg
 
CHINA’S TOTAL CREDIT GROWTH
Source: Bloomberg
 
MONTHLY GLOBAL ALUMINIUM CONSUMPTION
Source: Bloomberg, CRU, StoneX
Our View: 
There is no doubt that while total stock levels remain depleted, and supply chains remain constrained (exacerbating regional dislocations), aluminium will be highly vulnerable to further supply shocks, with likely volatility in the near-term. Within China, although further COVID-19 spreads will remain a key downside risk to production, we expect curtailments to capacity to be dominated by China’s emission control legislation, which is expected to remain at its height over the rest of this month and into the first few weeks of March, ahead of the Chinese People’s Political and Consultative Conference (CPPCC), also known as ‘Two Sessions’.  Meanwhile, capacity curtailments within Europe should reduce by H2 on the back of easing supply chains, while the elevated LME price and high premiums will support producers’ margins – this is however, dependent on a de-escalation in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Turning to demand, we forecast another healthy year of growth, albeit at lower levels than in 2021, with soaring prices in the near-term a bearish factor. 
 
ALUMINIUM MARKET BALANCE
Source: Bloomberg, CRU, StoneX
LME INVESTOR SPECULATIVE SENTIMENT NEAR ALL TIME HIGHS
Source: Bloomberg
 
A Technical Perspective – A Mixed Picture
•    The aluminium price has broken out of its upward moving price channel, although we would need to see a sustained move lower over the next three days to confirm the turn. 
•    Near-term support is currently standing at the 20-day EMA. 
•    Momentum indicators have turned bearish with the RSI dipping below 70, indicating that prices have been overbought, while momentum to the upside (as indicated by the MACD reading), has reduced moderately. 
•    However, the ADX reading is standing at 47, continuing to show a very strong trend (a reading above 25 indicates a trend has developed). In a similar vein, the strength of the upward trend is also supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator at present.  
 
ALUMINIUM TECHNICAL ANLAYSIS (LME 3M PRICE)
Source: Bloomberg
 
 
 
 
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