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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

September 15-30

image-20200803134820-1 CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​:

  • Peru: Peruvian coffee exports have fallen 20.4% in January-June over the same period last year amid logistic restrictions of workers. Perú exported 589,268 bags of 60-kg of coffee during the first half of the year, down by 151,409 bags from 740,677 bags in the same period last year, according to figures from the country’s association of exporters Adex.
  • Japan: that green coffee stocks totaled 178,388 metric tons (2.97 million 60 kg bags) at the end of July. This represents a 0.5% decrease from the previous month when 179,227 tons were reported, and a 7.5% decline than the same month last year, when 192,942 tons were reported.
    image-20210302124819-1
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 1.12 million bags as of September 15th, down 51.7% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were down 28.8% year on year at 1.83 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image-20210302124844-2
ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image-20210302124859-3

 

Brazil:

  • IBGE: Pegged Brazil’s 2020-2021 coffee crop at 59.6 million bags, an increase of 1.0% in relation to the previous month and 19.4% compared to 2019, being a record for the IBGE historical series. For arabica coffee, production is pegged at 45.0 million bags, an increase of 1.1% in relation to the previous month, and a record in the IBGE historical series. For Robusta, production is pegged at 14.6 million bags, an increase of 0.6% in relation to July and of 5.2% compared to the previous year.
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 2.97 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in August, down 2.2% from the 3.03 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.5 million 60-kg bags, down 3% from the 2.6 million 60-kg bags exported in August 2019. Robusta exports totaled 472,229 60-kg bags, up 2.3% from the 461,635 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
    image-20210302124928-4

 

image-20210216142239-7 Weather Update:

image-20200803135302-7

ENSO

BOM: Key indicators of ENSO are currently at or approaching La Niña thresholds, indicating that the atmosphere is responding to the changes in the ocean. If current atmospheric patterns and ocean cooling continue until the end of September, it is highly likely that La Niña conditions will be sustained until at least the end of the year

NOAA: La Niña conditions are present and are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (~75% chance).

image-20200803135302-8

BRAZIL

Mostly dry conditions will favor the end of the harvesting and then weather will turn wetter which should help the flowering period of the new crop and provide beneficial conditions for development.  

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210302125028-5 Date

image-20210302125028-6 ICE

image-20210302125028-7Macro

image-20210302125028-8 Fundamental

Wednesday, September 16

 

UK inflation rate

      PPI

EU Balance of trade

US Retail sales

      Fed interest rate decision

      FOMC economic projections

Brazil Interest rate decision

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, September 17

 

EU Inflation rate

UK BoE interest rate decision

      Quantatative easing

US Initial jobless claims

      Housing starts

 

Friday, September 18

ICE September Arabica last trading day

UK Retail sales

US Michigan consumer sentiment

CN basis report

Monday, September 21

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, September 22

 

EU Consumer confidence flash

US Existing home sales

CONAB Brazil coffee forecast

Wednesday, September 23

 

EU Markit manufacturing / services PMI

UK Markit manufacturing / services    PMI

Brazil IPCA mid month CPI

US Markit manufacturing / services PMI

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, September 24

ICE Europe September Robusta last trading day

US Initial jobless claims

      New home sales

US Gfk consumer confidence

 

Friday, September 25

 

US Durable goods orders

CN basis report

Monday, September 28

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

           Consumer confidence

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Tuesday, September 29

 

 EU Consumer confidence

       Consumer inflation expectations

US Goods trade balance

      S&P/Case-Schiller home prince

      CB consumer confidence

China Non manufacturing PMI

            Caixin manufacturing PMI

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, September 30

 

UK GDP

EU Inflation rate

Brazil Unemployment rate

US GDP

      Chicago PMI

      Pending home sales

ICO monthly coffee report

 

CN monthly coffee review

 

CEPEA weekly coffee update

 

Planning Ahead in October:

 

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

2

SCTA conference virtual

3

 

4

 

5

 

6

Cooxupe coffee & climate virtual

7

8

NOAA ENSO

 

IBGE coffee forecast

9

10

11

 

12

Brazil and Colombia closed for holiday

13

 

14

15

GCA Stocks

 

  • Coffee

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