StoneX logo

Bi-Weekly Coffee Report

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

August 15-31

image-20200803134820-1 CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​:

  • COVID-19: Price volatility in coffee prices is expected in the next three to four months because global coffee consumption remains the biggest concern as the gradual easing of lockdowns in the world remains uncertain with the resurgence of Covid-19 cases, Albert Scalla, Senior Vice-president of StoneX, said during a recent webinar.
  • ICO: The ICO now pegs global production at 168.006 million bags with consumption at 168.492 million bags, leaving a supply deficit of 486,000 bags. This new forecast is in-line with the pre-COVID forecasts. In March, at the first start of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the ICO had forecast a deficit of 474,000 bags. By April, the firm had revised their estimate to a surplus of 1.95 million bags.  Honduras: ADECAFEH estimates Honduras will export between 5.3 and 5.5 million bags for the 2020-2021 crop.
  • Japan: that green coffee stocks totaled 177,228 metric tons (2.95 million 60 kg bags) at the end of June. This represents a 1.8% increase from the previous month when 174,125 tons were reported, but 2.6% lower than the same month last year, when 182,042 tons were reported.
    image-20210302130833-1
  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 7,054,349 bags for the month ending July 31, which is 6,849 bags, or 0.9% lower than the previous month and 44,826 bags (0.6%) lower from July 2019. The five-year average for the month of July is 6,942,208 bags. July stocks have risen an average of 95,987 bags over the last five years.
    image-20210302130855-2
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 1.37 million bags as of August 17th, down 42.2% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were down 27% year on year at 1.83 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image-20210302130922-3
ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image-20210302130933-4

 

Brazil:

  • CONAB: Brazil has a total of 13.1 million bags that belong to the private sector, kept in several warehouses in the country. This amount is 1.5% higher than that recorded in the survey at the end of the 2017/2018 harvest, whose reported stock was 12.9 million bags. Arabica coffee corresponds to 87% of the total stored, reaching 11.4 million bags. The remaining 13% of the stocks are conilon, which represents something around 1.7 million bags.
  • CEPEA: The Robusta coffee harvest for the 2020-2021 coffee crop in Brazil was completed in July. With the wetter climate in July, the first flowering of the 2021/22 crop was recorded in parts of Espírito Santo and Rondônia. Some producers have induced flowering through irrigation in certain regions.
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 2.7 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in July, down 11% from the 3 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.3 million 60-kg bags, down 7.4% from the 2.4 million 60-kg bags exported in July 2019. Robusta exports totaled 446,426 60-kg bags, down 25.8% from the 601,684 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
    image-20210302130958-5

 

image-20210216142239-7 Weather Update:

image-20200803135302-7

ENSO

BOM: The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH, indicating the chance of La Niña forming in 2020 is around 50%— roughly twice the average likelihood.

NOAA:  There is a ~60% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~55% chance).

image-20200803135302-8

BRAZIL

Harvest efforts throughout the southern tier this week is expected to have significant delays, but the rainfall will boost soil moisture for any early flowering. Precipitation will be too light in the northeastern areas to cause noteworthy set backs. Temperatures will also be falling with the coldest days next weekend.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210302131125-6 Date

image-20210302131125-7 ICE

image-20210302131125-8Macro

image-20210302131125-9 Fundamental

Tuesday, August 18

 

US Housing starts

UK UK-EU Brexit talks

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, August 19

ICE Europe Sept Robusta options expiry

UK Inflation rate

      PPI

EU Inflation rate

US FOMC minutes

UK UK-EU Brexit talks

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, August 20

 

US Initial jobless claims

UK Gfk consumer confidence

      UK-EU Brexit talks

CN Special Report: La Nina Part 4 (Africa)

Friday, August 21

ICE Sept Arabica futures first notice day

UK Retail sales

EU Markit manufacturing / services /

      Composite PMI

UK Markit manufacturing / services /

      Composite PMI

US Markit manufacturing / services /

      Composite PMI

       Exisiting home sales

CN basis report

 

Monday, August 24

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

 

Tuesday, August 25

ICE Europe Sept Robusta futures first notice day

Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI

US S&P/Case-Schiller home index

      New home sales

 

Wednesday, August 26

 

US Durable goods orders

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, August 27

 

US GDP

      Initial jobless claims

      Pending home sales

 

Friday, August 28

 

EU Economic sentiment

      Consumer confidence

Brazil Unemployment

US Personal spending

      Wholesale inventories

      Michigan consumer expectations

      Michigan inflation expectations

Uganda coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

 

CN basis report

 

Monday, August 31

Robusta market closed for holiday

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Dallas fed manufacturing index

China Caixin manufacturing PMI

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

 

CN monthly recaps

Planning Ahead in September:

 

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

1

2

 

3

 

4

 

5

 

6

7

Arabica market and Brazil closed for holiday

 

Robusta market early close
(21:00 UK / 16:00 EST)

8

 

9

10

NOAA ENSO update

 

IBGE Brazil coffee crop update

11

12

13

 

14

15

GCA August stocks

 

  • Coffee

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Daily Coffee Report 8/6/26

Daily coffee report

StoneX Coffee Team
StoneX Coffee Team
  • Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.