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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

February 15-28

image-20200803134820-1 CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​:

  • ICO:

    • 2019-2020: Upwardly revised their estimate for global production from 168.6 million bags to 168.7 million bags, an increase of 0.06%. Consumption revised lower from 167.6 million bags, down to 164.5 million bags, a decline of 1.8%. Surplus revised from 961,000 bags to 4.1 million bags.
    • 2020-2021: Global production pegged at 171.9 million bags, with a demand of 166.6 million bags, resulting in a supply surplus of 5.3 million bags.
  • Japan: Green coffee stocks totaled 163,264 metric tons (2.7 million 60 kg bags) at the end of December. This represents a 0.9% increase from the previous month when 161,781 tons were reported, and a 7.4% decline than the same month last year, when 176,402 tons were reported. For the entirety of the 2020 calendar year, green coffee stocks totaled 2,083,485 tons, down 3.5% from the 2,158,391 tons reported in 2019.
    image-20210302120516-2
  • Honduras: According to the latest data from the Coffee Exporters Association of Honduras (ADECAFEH), coffee exports as of January 29th totaled 829,000 bags, down 37% or 478,000 bags year on year.
  • Colombia:
    • Production in January totaled 1.081 million bags, 3% more compared to the same month in the previous year. Exports totaled 1.102 million bags, up 3% year on year.
    • The Colombia’s coffee growers federation (FNC) has earmarked COP25 billion Colombian pesos (US$714,300) for the renovation of 32,000 coffee hectares for 2021. Last year, around 54,275 hectares were renovated.
  • Peru: Peru exported  3.542 million bags of coffee in 2020, down 7.5% from the previous year, according to official figures from the Peruvian coffee and cocoa chamber. The chamber expects coffee exports to rise to 3.731 million bags in 2021.
  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 5,843,171 bags for the month ending January 31, which is 2.3% or 135,130 bags less than the previous month and 12.4% or 826,302 bags less from January 2020. The five-year average for January is 6,300,765 bags. January stocks have fallen an average of 114,000 bags over the last five years.
    image-20210302120557-3
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 1.72 million bags as of February 15th, down 20.4% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were down 6.7% year on year at 2.38 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image-20210302120633-4
ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

 

image-20210302120647-5

 

 

 

Brazil:

  • IBGE: In their first estimate of Brazil’s 2021-2022 coffee crop, Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has pegged total production at 45 million 60-kg bags, a 27.3% decline compared to the previous year. Arabica production is estimated at 31.6 million bags, down 33.6% and Robusta is pegged at 13.45 million bags, a decline of 6.7%.
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 2.9 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in January, down 8.1% from the 3.1 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.7 million 60-kg bags, down 9.3% from the 2.9 million 60-kg bags exported in January 2020. Robusta exports totaled 241,534 60-kg bags, up 7.9% from the 223,828 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
    image-20210302120720-6

 

image-20210216142239-7 Weather Update:

image-20200803135302-7

ENSO

BOM: In terms of typical indicators of La Niña, this event has peaked. Climate model outlooks indicate the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will return to neutral during northern hemisphere Spring, that is, neither La Niña nor El Niño.

NOAAThe forecaster consensus is a transition to ENSO-neutral during Spring and then a continuation at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer. In part, due to the inherent uncertainty in predictions made at this time of year, the forecast for the fall remains split (50%) between La Niña and the combination of the other two possibilities (El Niño and Neutral). There is a 60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021.

image-20200803135302-8

BRAZIL

Rainfall is expected to remain steady over the country’s main coffee belt in the coming days, which should help the development of the 2021-2022 coffee crop.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210302120907-7 Date

image-20210302120907-8 ICE

image-20210302120907-9Macro

image-20210302120907-10 Fundamental

Wednesday, February 17

ICE Europe March Robusta options expiry

Brazil closed for holiday

UK Inflation data

      PPI

US Retail sales

      PPI

      Manufacturing/
      industrial production

      FOMC minutes

 CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, February 18

ICE March Arabica first notice day

US Housing starts

      Jobless claims

EU Consumer confidence flash

UK Gfk consumer confidence

 

Friday, February 19

 

UK Retail sales

       Markit manufacturing/composite/

       Services PMI

EU Markit manufacturing/composite/

       Services PMI

US Markit manufacturing/composite/

       Services PMI

CN basis report

Monday, February 22

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, February 23

ICE Europe March Robusta first notice day

UK Unemployment rate

EU Inflation data

US S&P Case-Schiller home price

      CB consumer confidence

 

Wednesday, February 24

 

Brazil FGV consumer confidence

            IPCA mid month CPI

US New home sales

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, February 25

 

EU Consumer confidence final

US Durable goods orders

      GDP

      Jobless claims

      Pending home sales

Keurig Green Mountain financial results

Friday, February 26

 

Brazil Unemployment rate

           Nominal budget balance

US Wholesale inventories

       Goods trade balance

       Michigan consumer sentiment

       Michigan inflation expectations

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

 

SCA world of coffee update

 

CN basis report

 

CN monthly recap

 

Planning Ahead in March:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

1

 

 

2

BOM ENSO update

3

NCA virtual convention (March 3-5)

4

 

5

 

6

 

7

 

8

 

9

 

10

 

11

NOAA ENSO Update

 

IBGE coffee crop update

12

 

13

14

15

GCA stocks

 

 

  • Coffee

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