StoneX logo

Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - December 17-31

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork Highlights

  • USDA: global coffee production for 2021/22 is forecast down 8.5 million bags from the previous year to 167.5 million, due primarily to Brazil’s combined effect of Arabica trees entering the off‐year of the biennial production cycle and a weather‐related shortfall.  As a result of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to drop 6.3 million bags to 30.0 million.  World coffee bean exports are expected down 3.8 million bags to 117.2 million as lower exports from Brazil more than offset higher shipments from Vietnam.  Global consumption rises 1.5 million bags to 164.9 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil.  
  • ICO: Estimates of total production for coffee year 2020/21 remain unchanged at 169.64 million 60-kg bags. On the other hand, world coffee consumption is assessed marginally up in volume, now estimated to have increased to 167.67 million bags in 2020/21 as compared to 164.53 million bags for coffee year 2019/20. The gap production-consumption is therefore reducing to 1.97 million bags.
  • CoffeeNetwork: Global production for 2021-2022 is pegged at 163-164 million bags with consumption at 163.6 to 164.4 million bags, resulting in a supply deficit of 400,000 to 600,000 bags.
  • Uganda: Coffee exports in November amounted to 524,902 60-kilo bags, up 21.98% from the same month last year. This was comprised of 436,417 bags of Robusta and 88,485 bags of Arabica, both of which increased by 17.15% and 53.11%, respectively.
  • Vietnam: Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of November totaled 1.79 million bags, up 8.3% from the 1.3 million bags registered in the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first eleven months of the 2021 calendar year to 23.17 million bags, 2.3% lower than the same period last year.
  • Honduras: In November, 103,000 bags were exported, 86% more (+48,000 bags) compared to the 56,000 bags exported in November 2020.
  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 5,843,721 bags for the month ending November 30, which is 132,386 bags, or 2.2% lower than the previous month and 34,615 bags (0.6%) higher from November 2020. The five-year average for the month of November is 6,279,238 bags. November stocks have fallen an average of 221,000 bags over the last five years.
image-20211217131850-1
 
  • Certfified Stocks: ICE Arabica certified stocks totaled 1.56 million bags as of December 17, up 13.9% from the 1.37 million bags registered at the same time last year. ICE Robusta certified stocks totaled 1.7 million bags as of December 17, down 24.4% from the same time last year.
  •  

    ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

     

    image-20211217142030-1

    ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

     

     

     

    image-20211217142046-2

     

 

Brazil:

  • CONAB: In their fourth and final survey, Brazil’s National Supply Company, CONAB, pegged the country’s 2021-2022 coffee crop at 47.72 million bags, down 24.4% from the previous harvest. This is also a 1.7% higher than the last estimate of 46.9 million bags. Conilon is expected at 16.29 million bags, an increase of 13.8% compared to that obtained in 2020. Arabica should total 31.42 million bags, a reduction of 35.5% when compared to last year.
  • IBGE: Brazil’s IBGE forecast the country’s 2021-2022 coffee crop at 48.34 million bags, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month’s estimate, but still a decline of 20.4% from the previous year, when 60.7 million bags was produced. Arabica coffee is forecast at 32.44, unchanged from the October estimate but down 29.8 million bags from the November 2020 estimate, when IBGE forecast 46.2 million bags of Arabica would be produced for the coffee year. Robusta coffee is pegged at 15.9 million bags, up 1.2% from October and 9.7% higher than the November 2020 estimate, when IBGE forecast 14.5 million bags of Arabica would be produced for the coffee year.
  • image-20211217132111-4

  • Consumer Prices: Prices of coffee for the consumer continue to rise in Brazil.
    • The latest data from IBGE shows that, for roasted coffee, price inflation was 6.87% in November, which brought total price inflation since the start of the year to 38.81%. For instant coffee, inflation in November was 3.57%, bringing total inflation since January to 11.37%.
    • Data from ABIC of the average price of roast and ground coffee in retail shows that prices jumped 35% since the start of the year, from R$15.37/kg in January to R$20.76/kg in August.
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 2.58 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in November, down 41.7% from the 4.42 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.39 million 60-kg bags, down 41.5% from the 4.08 million 60-kg bags exported in November 2020. Robusta exports totaled 186,081 60-kg bags, down 44.4% from the 334,632 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
  • image-20211217132111-5

Weather update:

 

ENSO

BOM: La Niña is firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest this La Niña will persist until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022.

NOAA: La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June).

 

BRAZIL

Moderate to heavy rainfall for most of the coffee belt in Brazil, which will continue to favor cherry growth.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20211217132321-6 Date

image-20211217132321-7 ICE

image-20211217132321-8Macro

image-20211217132321-9 Fundamental

Monday, December 20

ICE December Arabica last trading day

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, December 21

 

EU Consumer confidence flash

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, December 22

 

UK GDP

Brazil FVG consumer confidence

US GDP

      Consumer confidence

UK Gfk consumer confidence

CEPEA weekly report

Thursday, December 23

 

Brazil IPCA mind month CPI

US Durable goods

      Personal spending

      Jobless claims

      New Home sales

      Michigan consumer sentiment

 

Friday, December 24

Markets closed

 

CN basis report

Monday, December 27

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US S&P Case Schiller home index

 

 

Tuesday, December 28

ICE Europe Robusta January first notice day

Brazil Unemployment rate

 

Wednesday, December 29

 

US Goods trade balance

      Whole sale inventories

CEPEA weekly report

Thursday, December 30

 

Brazil Nominal budget balance

US Jobless claims

China Non manufacturing PMI

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Friday, December 31

 

 

CN basis report

Planning Ahead in January

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

3

Robusta market closed

4

 

5

6

 

7

 

8

 

9

 

10

 

11

IBGE Brazil coffee crop forecast

12

 

13

NOAA ENSO update

14

ICE February Arabica options expiry

15

16

17

GCA stocks

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.