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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - January 18-31

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork Highlights

  • ICO: World coffee exports amounted to 9.25 million bags in November 2021, down 12.4% compared with 10.56 million in November 2020.
  • Colombia:
    • Production totaled 12.6 million bags in 2021, down from 13.89 million bags in 2020. The figure is the lowest since 2014 when Colombia produced 12.14 million bags. In December, production reached 1.385 million bags, down 21% from the 1.743 million in the previous year.
    • For exports, in 2021, they totaled 1% year on year to 12.4 million bags of 60-kg, down from 12.5 million bags in the previous year. In December, Colombia exported 1.2 million bags, down 10% from 1.309 million on year.
    • Mitica crop, which could be as much as 6.15 million bags, threatenened by torrential rains. Rainfall since August has not allowed for proper formation of flowerings.
  • Vietnam: The country’s exports totaled 2.8 million bags in December, up 57.6% from the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first three months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 to 6.3 million bags, a 19.7% increase from the same period last year.
  • Uganda: The country’s coffee exports in December totaled 536,889 bags, up 28.03% year on year. This was comprised of 452,55 bags of Robusta and 84,301 bags of Arabica, which increased by 21.79% and 76.68%, respectively.
  • Guatemala: Coffee exports increased 39% on year in the coffee year October-December 31 to 268,302 bags. Guatemala’s coffee exports are expected to total 3.23 million bags in 2021-2022.
  • Honduras: The USDA released their biannual Global World Coffee Report in December, where the firm unexpectedly increased their forecast for global production and shifted their supply and demand outlook from a deficit to a surplus- this was mostly due to a revision for Honduras.
    • In May, the USDA attache report for Honduras pegged total production for the 21-22 crop at 5.5 million bags, while the biannual report published in December forecast production at 6.8 million bags, a 23.6% increase.
    • This meant for 2021-2022, official USDA production and trade data were higher than Post data because of the stronger than anticipated 2020-2021 recovery that revealed itself in the trade data.
  • Judith Ganes: Forecast the global stock drawdown for 2021/22 will be 9.604 million bags. “There will be some easing in the supply chain and in coffee, the more expensive and inefficient use of break-bulk loading to circumvent container shortages has also helped,” she said.
  • Volcafe: For the current 2021-2022 crop, Volcafe sees Arabica production at 83 million bags and Robusta production at 79 million bags, for total global production for the period at 162 million bags. Consumption is forecast at 173 million bags, leaving a supply deficit of 11.2 million bags.
    • For the upcoming global 2022-2023 coffee crop, Arabica production was pegged at 93 million bags and Robusta at 81 million bags, for a total of 174 million bags. Consumption is estimated at 175 million bags, for a second consecutive year deficit of 1.4 million bags.
Global production
 
  • GCA: coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 5,833,692 bags for the month ending December 31, which is 10,029 bags, or 0.17% lower than the previous month and 144,609 bags (2.4%) lower from December 2020. The five-year average for the month of December is 6,276,240 bags. December stocks have risen an average of 39,000 bags over the last five years.
image-20220119094718-1
 
 
  • Certfified Stocks: ICE Arabica certified stocks totaled 1.39 million bags as of January 18, down 9.3% from the 1.53 million bags registered at the same time last year. ICE Robusta certified stocks totaled 1.59 million bags as of January 18, down 32.6% from the same time last year.
    ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

    image-20220119094813-2
     

    ICE Certified Robusta Stocks
     

    image-20220119094853-3
    Brazil:

 

  • CONAB: Total production for Brazil’s 2022 coffee crop is pegged at 55.7 million bags, an increase of 16.8% compared to 2021. Arabica is pegged 23.4% compared to the previous harvest, at 38.7 million bags. For conilon, the expectation is a new record with the harvest reaching close to 17 million bags. The increase of 4.1% in relation to the previous harvest.
  • IBGE: forecast the country’s 2021-2022 coffee crop at 49.0 million bags, an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous month and a 21.1% decline over the previous year. Arabica is pegged at 31.67 million bags, down 21.1% year on year, while Robusta is pegged at 16.67 million bags, 6.8% lower.
  • Volcafe: Volcafe has pegged Brazil’s new 2022-2023 coffee crop at 60.9 million bags, including 37.5 million bags of Arabica and 23.4 million bags for Conilon.
  • TRS: For Brazil’s 2021-2022 crop, TRS forecasts the total crop to total 54.1 million bags, including 30.7 million bags of Arabica and 19.7 million bags of conilon. For the current 2022-2023 crop, TRS sees total production at 64.2 million bags. TRS sees the 23-24 crop to have a potential of 70 million bags, with the Arabica crop reaching 45 million bags and Conilon reaching 25 million bags.
    BR Production

     

     

     
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 3.33 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in December, down 17.3% from the 4.02 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 3.2 million 60-kg bags, down 12.2% from the 3.6 million 60-kg bags exported in December 2020. Robusta exports totaled 131,056 60-kg bags, down 65.9% from the 384,365 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
    image-20220119095102-4
     
    Weather update:

 

ENSO

BOM: Climate models suggest the 2021–22 La Niña is near or at its peak, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely early in the southern hemisphere autumn

NOAA: La Niña is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (67% chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (51% chance during April-June).

 

BRAZIL

coffee areas only expected to receive light rainfall over the next few days. This dier pattern will cause soil moisture to decline, and could cause some stress on the developing crop.

 

Looking Ahead:

 

image-20220119095249-5 Date

image-20220119095249-6 ICE

image-20220119095249-7Macro

image-20220119095249-8 Fundamental

Wednesday, January 19

 

UK inflation

       PPI

US Housing starts

      Building permits

CEPEA weekly coffee update

 

CN special report

Thursday, January 20

 

EU inflation

US Jobless claims

      Existing home sales

UK Gfk consumer confidence

 

Friday, January 21

 

UK Retail sales

EU Consumer confidence flash

CN weekly basis report

Monday, January 24

 

EU Markit composite/
      manufacturing PMI

UK Markit composite/
      manufacturing PMI

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Markit composite/
      manufacturing PMI

 

Tuesday, January 25

ICE Europe January Robusta last trading day

Brazil FGV consumer confidence

US S&P Case Schiller home price

      CB consumer confidence

 

Wednesday, January 26

 

Brazil IPCA mid month CPI

US Goods trade balance

      Wholesale inventories

      New home sales

      Fed interest rate decision

CEPEA weekly coffee update

 

Thursday, January 27

 

US GDP

      Jobless claims

      Durable goods orders

 

Friday, January 28

 

EU Economic sentiment

      Consumer confidence

Brazil Unemployment

US Personal income/spending

      Michigan consumer sentiment

CN weekly basis report

 

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Monday, January 31

 

EU GDP

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Planning Ahead in February:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

1

BOM Enso

 

Tet holiday begins

2

 

3

4

 

5

 

6

 

7

 

8

 

9

 

10

ICE March Arabica options expiry

 

NOAA Enso

 

IBGE coffee crop update

11

 

12

 

13

14

15

GCA stocks

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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