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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - July 1-15

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

image-20220201160316-10CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​

  • Middle East: Coffee specialty in the Middle East is a rapid-growing emerging market amid an increase of the number of coffee shops opening in the region, and consumers willing to roast at home, roasters and experts said during the Producer & Roasters Forum (PRF) held in Medellin said.

    • The Middle East imported $908.5 million dollars in 2021 in coffee excluding decaffeinated vs $796 million in 2020, and $790 million in 2019.
    • Saudi Arabia imported US$228 million worth of coffee in 2021 compared with US$ 163 million in 2020 and $ 140 million in 2019.
    • Turkey imported US$173 million worth of coffee in 2021, compared with $ 165.4 in 2020 and US$161 million in 2019. 
  • USDA: Pegged global coffee production for the 2022-2023 coffee at 174.9 million bags, up 4.7% from the 167.134 million produced in the previous coffee year. Consumption for the period is forecast at 167 million bags, up 1% from the 165.24 million bags consumed in 2021-2022. Indicating a potential supply surplus of 7.9 million bags.
  • CoffeeNetwork: Pegged 2022-2023 global coffee production at 170 to 172 million bags. Demand is estimated at 163.5 to 164.5 million bags, leaving a supply surplus of 5 to 8 million bags
    Global production 4
     

    image-20220201160050-5Brazil:

  • Harvesting: The harvesting of the 2022-2023 coffee crop in Brazil continues, but behind the pace of last year with reports of labor shortages.
  • Producer & Roaster Forum: The global coffee market should anticipate volatility for the next two to three months awaiting “normal” weather conditions in Brazil in September-October to allow the proper formation of flowerings, Senior Vice President of Trading at StoneX Group, Albert Scalla said during the Producer & Roasters Forum (PRF) held in Medellin said. “We have 30 more days of winter in Brazil, and we begin to see how the rains are developing. From September 15 through October 15, it is very important that the rains arrive normally. We have two or three months of very volatile markets, and all the market participants, funds, speculators, all the operators of coffee will be aware of this,” Scalla told a large audience during the PRF forum.

image-20220201160122-7 Weather update:

image-20220201160102-6

ENSO

BOM: The 2021–22 La Niña event has reached an end, with a majority of indicators currently at neutral levels. However, some model outlooks suggest La Niña may re-form later in 2022. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to La Niña WATCH. La Niña WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of La Niña forming later in 2022. This is approximately double the normal likelihood.

NOAA: Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

image-20220201160050-5

BRAZIL

Dryness is expected for the next week, which should help fieldwork activities and the progression of the harvest.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20220701130754-1 Date

image-20220701130754-2 ICE

image-20220701130754-3Macro

image-20220701130754-4 Fundamental

Monday, July 4

Markets closed for holiday

Brazil IPC-Fipe inflation

EU PPI

China Caixin services/composite PMI

Central America exports (+/- 2 days)

Tuesday, July 5

 

EU S&P global services/composite PMI

UK S&P global services/composite PMI

Brazil S&P global services/
            composite PMI

            Industrial production

US Factory orders

BOM Enso update

Wednesday, July 6

 

EU Retail sales

US S&P global services/composite PMI

      ISM non manufacturing PMI

      JOLTS job openings

      FOMC minutes

Colombia exports (+/- 2 days)

 

CEPEA weekly update

 

Thursday, July 7

 

US Challenger job cuts

      ADP employment change

      Balance of trade

      Jobless claims

IBGE coffee crop update

Friday, July 8

 

Brazil Inflation rate

US Non farm payrolls

     Unemployment

China Inflation rate

            PPI

CN weekly basis report

Monday, July 11

 

 

Brazil CeCafe exports (+/- 2 days)

Tuesday, July 12

 

EU ZEW economic sentiment

Brazil Business confidence

China Balance of trade

 

Wednesday, July 13

 

UK GDP

      Goods trade balance

       Industrial/
       manufacturing production

EU Industrial production

US Inflation rate

      CPI

CEPEA weekly update

 

Thursday, July 14

 

US PPI

      Jobless claims

China GDP

Brazil IBC-BR economic activity

NOAA Enso update

Friday, July 15

 

EU Balance of trade

US Retail sales

      Industrial/
      manufacturing production

      Michigan consumer sentiment

GCA data

 

CN weekly basis report

 

 

Planning Ahead in July:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

18

 

19

ICE July Arabica last trading day

20

Colombia closed for holiday

21

 

22

 

23

 

24

 

25

ICE July Robusta last trading day

26

 

27

 

28

 

29

 

30

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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