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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - June 15-30

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

image-20220201160316-10CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​

  • USDA Attache

    • Brazil’s 22-23 crop pegged at 64.3 million bags, an increase of 6.2 million bags relative to the revised figure for the previous crop year (58.1 million 60-kg bags). Arabica production is projected at 41.5 million bags, an increase of 14 percent vis-a-via the previous season. Robusta/Conilon production is forecast at 22.8 million bags, a 1.1-million-bag increase relative to the previous crop season.
    • Tanzania’s 2022-2023 coffee crop is forecast to decrease 4 percent to 1.15 million bags due to lower yields triggered by high fertilizer prices.
    • Vietnam’s 2022/23 total coffee production is pegged at 30.93 million bags (GBE), 2 percent lower than MY 2021/22, including 29.83 million bags of Robusta. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 Arabica production at 1.10 million bags, unchanged from last year
    • Guatemala’s 2022-2023 coffee production is forecast to shrink 17 percent to 3.36 million 60-Kg bags, compared to MY 2020/2021.
    • Uganda’s 2022/23 total production is forecast to increase 6 percent year-on-year to 6.65 million bags, driven by a recovery in robusta production.
    • In MY 2022/23, Colombian coffee production is forecast at 13.0 million bags (1 bag = 60 kilograms unless otherwise noted) of green bean equivalent (GBE).
    • Mexico’s MY 2022/23 coffee production is forecast 3.84 million 60/kg bags.
    • India’s (MY) 2022/23 coffee production (Oct/Sep) is forecast at 5.74 million 60-kilogram bags.

Country

22-23 forecast

21-22 forecast

% change

Bags change

Brazil

64.3

58.1

10.7%

6.2

Colombia

13

13

-

-

Costa Rica

1.365

1.275

7%

90,000

Ecuador

354,000

261,000

35.6%

93,000

El Salvador

619,000

639,000

(3.12%)

(20,000)

Ethiopia

 

 

 

 

Guatemala

3.364

3.41

(1.34%)

(46,000)

Honduras

 

 

 

 

India

5.74

5.53

3.8%

210,000

Indonesia

11.35

10.58

7.28%

770,000

Kenya

700,000

780,000

(10.26%)

(80,000)

Mexico

3.845

3.84

0.13%

5,000

Nicaragua

2.7

2.7

-

-

Peru

4.030

3.95

2%

80,000

Tanzania

1.15

1.2

(4%)

(50,000)

Uganda

6.65

6.25

6.4%

400,000

Venezuela

 

 

 

 

Vietnam

30.93

31.58

(2%)

(650,000)

 

 

167.5

 

+7 million

 

  • US Consumer Coffee Prices: The cost of roast and ground coffee in major US cities averaged $5.53/lb in April, and increase of 16.4% from the average cost of $4.75 in April last year.This is also the highest price for a pound of coffee since June of 2013, according to the dataset.
  • ICO: New landmark International Coffee Agreement includes the world’s biggest coffee retailers, roasters and manufacturers, together with coffee farmers. Going forward, the private sector and civil society will participate as Affiliate Members in key discussions and decisions on the sustainable future of global coffee affairs with 75 coffee producing and importing nations, ICO Member Governments.
  • Honduras: in May, 641,000 bags if coffee were exported, down 23%, or 191,000 bags year-on-year compared to the 833,000 thousand bags exported in May 2021. Coffee sales as of June 2 totaled 4.05 million bags (down 19% or 950,000 bags year-on-year) of which 3.51 million bags have been exported (down 13%, or 514,000 bags, year-on-year) with a value of $1,088 million.
  • Colombia: In May, production exceeded one million 60-kg bags of green coffee, 65% more than the 616,000 bags produced in the same month of 2021.Exports in May also registered a substantial recovery, of 174%, reaching 944,000 60-kg bags of coffee compared to the 345,000 bags sent abroad in the same month of 2021.
  • ECF: Coffee stocks in some European ports totaled 746,860 tons (12.5 million bags) as of April 30th, a decline of 14% year on year but a 4.5% increase month on month. In terms of type, in April, stocks were made up of 260,969 tons of Robusta, 242,043 tons of Natural Arabica and 243,848 tons of Washed Arabica.
  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 6,003,731 bags for the month ending May 31, which is 97,125 bags, or 1.6% higher than the previous month and 188,593 bags (3.2%) higher from May 2021. The five-year average for the month of May is 6,422,890 bags. May stocks have risen an average of 170,000 bags over the last five years.
    image 40799
    image-20220201160050-5Brazil:
  • Ukraine/Russia: Russia, which normally ranked as sixth main destination for Brazilian coffee, dropped to 13th position, showing a 43% drop in imports. Russia imported 292,384 bags from January to the end of last month, down 42.8% compared to the same period in 2021.

    • Ukraine, although with a more modest volume in imports has already registered a decrease of 65%.
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 2.53 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in May, up 5.9% from the 2.39 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.4 million 60-kg bags, up 15.6% from the 2.08 million 60-kg bags exported in May 2021. Robusta exports totaled 121,127 60-kg bags, plummeting 60.1% from the 303,723 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
  • IBGE: Brazil’s IBGE forecast the country’s 2022 coffee crop at 52.8 million bags, a decline of 3.7% compared to the previous month, and 7.8% compared to 2021. Arabica is estimated at 35.2 million bags, a decline of 5.9% compared to the previous month and an increase of 9.8% compared to last year. For conillon, production is pegged at 17.6 million bags, an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous month and 4.1% compared to 2021.

image-20220201160122-7 Weather update:

image-20220201160102-6

ENSO

BOM: The 2021–22 La Niña event is slowly weakening in the tropical Pacific. Compared to two weeks ago, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have warmed, particularly in the western half of the tropical Pacific, returning to near-average values. However, some atmospheric indicators continue to show a La Niña signal, while trade winds have shifted more firmly towards a more neutral ENSO pattern (neither La Niña nor El Niño). Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a return to neutral ENSO during the southern hemisphere winter. Two of the seven models maintain La Niña conditions through the southern winter.

NOAA: Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

image-20220201160050-5

BRAZIL

Weather has turned drier and warmer, which should be beneficial for the final stages of harvesting taking place. No cold fronts expected in the next 7-10 days, although wetter weather will return to some parts of the coffee belt into next week.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20220615142322-1 Date

image-20220615142322-2 ICE

image-20220615142322-3Macro

image-20220615142322-4 Fundamental

Thursday, June 16

 

Brazil closed for Holiday

UK BoE interest rate decsion

US Housing starts

      Jobless claims

 

Friday, June 17

 

EU Inflation data

US Industrial /
      manufacturing production

Brazil IBC-BR economic activity

CN weekly basis report

Monday, June 20

Arabica market closed for Holiday

Colombia closed for Holiday

 

 

Tuesday, June 21

 

US Existing home sales

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, June 22

ICE July Arabica first notice day

UK Inflata data

       PPI

EU Consumer confidence flash

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, June 23

 

EU S&P global services /
      manufacturing/services PMI

UK S&P global services /
      manufacturing/services PMI

      Gfk consumer confidence

US S&P global services /
      manufacturing/services PMI

      Jobless claims

USDA World Coffee Report (3pm EST)

 

World of Coffee Event (June 23-25)

Friday, June 24

 

UK Retail sales

Brazil FGV consumer confidence

           IPCA mid-month CPI

US New home sales

      Michigan consumer sentiment

CN weekly basis report

Monday, 27

ICE July Robusta first notice day

 

 

Colombia closed for Holiday

US Durable goods

      Pending home sales

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, June 28

 

US Retail inventories

      Goods trade balance

      Wholesale inventories

      S&P Case-Schiller home price

      CB consumer confidence

 

Wednesday, June 29

 

EU Economic sentiment

       Consumer confidence

US GDP

CEPEA weekly coffee report

 

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Thursdsay, June 30

 

UK GDP

EU Unemployemnt rate

Brazil Unemployment rate

US Personal income /spending

      Jobless claims

Uganda coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

 

Planning Ahead in July:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

2

 

3

 

4

Markets closed for holiday

5

 

6

 

7

IBGE coffee crop update

8

 

9

10

11

 

 

12

13

14

NOAA Enso update

15

GCA data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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