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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - May 2-15

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

image-20220201160316-10CoffeeNetwork Highlights

  • USDA Attache

    • Peru: Peru’s coffee production in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (April/March) is forecast at 4.03 million bags, up 2% year on year. Domestic consumption in MY 2022/2023 is forecast at 230,000 bags. Exports are forecast at 3.95 million 60-kilogram bags, a slight increase from the previous year.
  • Citigroup: Forecast that the global coffee balance sheet with shift from a supply deficit of 7.3 million bags in the 2021-2022 crop year, to a surplus of 3.5 million bags for 2022-2023. Global production in 2022-2023 will total 179.3 million bags with demand estimated at 175.8 million bags.
  • Costa Rica: the country exported 148,844 bags of coffee in April, down 4.7% from the 156,139 bags exported in the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first seven months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to 526,512 bags, a decline of 2.2% from the 553,236 bags exported in the same period of the previous coffee year.
  • Colombia:
    • Colombia’s first rainy season, which began in mid- March and merged with la Niña weather phenomenon, has created an excess of rainfall across key coffee regions in Colombia.
    • The country’s coffee imports totaled 15,545 tonnes in January- February, dwn 27.5% from the same period last year.
  • Certified Stocks: Arabica certified stocks totaled 1.12 million bags as of May 2nd, down 42.3% from the 1.94 million bags registered by the same time last year. Robusta certified stocks totaled 1.53 million bags, down 40% from the 2.54 million bags last year

    Arabica certified stocksimage-20220502140206-1

  •  

    Robusta certified stocks

    image-20220502140356-2
    image-20220201160050-5Brazil:
  • Citigroup: Forecast Brazil’s production will rise 19.3% year on year from 54.9 million bags to 65.6 million bags.​​​​​

image-20220201160122-7 Weather update:

image-20220201160102-6

ENSO

BOM: The 2021–22 La Niña event continues to weaken, with oceanic indicators mostly at neutral levels. However, atmospheric indicators remain above La Niña thresholds, meaning La Niña's influence continues.

NOAA: While La Niña is slightly favored through the fall, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty, given the combined 45-50% chance for ENSO-neutral or El Niño from July-September onwards. La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall)

image-20220201160050-5

BRAZIL

For the extended Forecast, there is still a forecast of rain especially over the Cerrado of Minas Gerais between May 9th and 15th. But again, precipitation will come with low accumulated and irregular spatial distribution

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20220502140528-3 Date

image-20220502140528-4 ICE

image-20220502140528-5Macro

image-20220502140528-6 Fundamental

Tuesday, May 3

 

Vietnam closed for holiday

UK CIPS manufacturing  PMI

EU Unemployment

      PPI

Brazil Industrial production

US JOLTS job opennings

USDA attache reports (no publish date, but will posted throughout May)

Wednesday, May 4

 

EU S&P global services/composite PMI

      Retail sales

US Balance of trade

      S&P global service/composite PMI

      ISM non manufacturing PMI

      Fed intetest rate decision

Brazil S&P global services/composite           
           PMI

           Interest rate decision

CEPEA weekly report

 

Central America exports (+/- 2 days)

Thursday, May 5

 

UK BoE interest rate decision

US Challenger job cuts

      Jobless claims

Colombia exports (+/- 2 days)

Friday, May 6

 

UK S&P construction PMI

US Non farm payrolls

      Unemployment rate

CN basis report

Monday, May 9

 

 US Wholesale inventories

       Consumer inflation expectations

 

Tuesday, May 10

 

EU ZEW economic sentiment index

Brazil Retail sales

China Inflation rate

            PPI

BOM ENSO update

 

Cecafe Brazil exports (+/- 2 days)

Wednesday, May 11

 

Brazil Inflation rate

US Inflation rate

CEPEA weekly report

Thursday, May 12

 

UK GDP

      Balance of trade

      Industrial/manufacturing       
      production

US PPI

     Jobless claims

IBGE coffee survey

 

NOAA ENSO update

Friday, May 13

 

EU Industrial production

Brazil IBC-BR economic activity

US Michigan consumer sentiment

CN basis report

Monday, May 16

 

EU Balance of trade

Brazil BCB focus market readout

GCA Stocks

 

Planning Ahead in May:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

17

 

18

ICE May Arabica last trading day

19

CONAB 2nd survey of coffee crop

20

 

21

 

22

 

23

 

24

 

25

ICE Europe Robusta last trading day

26

 

27

 

28

29

30

Markets closed for Memorial Day

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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