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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - September 1-15

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

image-20220201160316-10CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​

 
  • ICO: World coffee exports amounted to 10.12 million bags in July 2022, down 6.6% compared with 10.83 million in July 2021. Exports in the first 10 months of coffee year 2021/22 (October/21 to July/22) have decreased by 0.3% to 108.8 million bags compared with 109.17 million bags in the same period in 2020/21.
  • USDA: Upwardly revised their forecast for imports of coffee and coffee products by $1.0 billion for FY 2022 to $9.0 billion on increased import volumes and unit values. Coffee and coffee product imports in FY 2023 are forecast at $10.0 billion. In terms of volume, imports of coffee and coffee products in FY 2022 were forecast at 1.7 million metric tons and expected to remain unchanged in FY 2023.
  • ECOM: ECOM has pegged global coffee production for the 2022-2023 coffee year at 165.1 million bags, down 2.1 million bags from their previous estimate. Demand is forecast at 169.7 million bags, leaving a deficit for the period of 4.6 million bags, 1.8 million bags higher than their previous estimate. The 4.6 million bag deficit for 22-23 comes after a deficit also recorded in 2021-2022 of 8.3 million bags and a surplus of 6.1 million bags in 20-21.
  • Hondruas: The country exported 297,650 bags in August, down 29% from the 418,076 bags exported in the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first eleven months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to 4.58 million bags, an 18.7% decline from the 5.63 million bags exported in the same period of the previous coffee year.
  • Costa Rica: The country exported 103,367 bags of coffee in August, up 5.3% from the 98,176 bags exported in the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first 11 eleven months of the current October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year to 1.028 million bags, 5.5% lower than the 1.088 million bags exported in the same period of the previous coffee year.
  • Uganda: The country exported 576,468 60-kilo bags in July, down 17.57% compared to the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 48,233 bags, up 21.24% year on year and Robusta exports totaled 528,235 bags, down 19.91% from July 2021.
  • Japan: green coffee stocks totaled 184,224 metric tons (3.07 million 60 kg bags) at the end of July. This represents a 3.5% decrease from the previous month when 190,880 tons were reported. However, this is 12% higher than the same month last year, when 164,556 tons were reported.
    image 48426
     

image-20220201160050-5Brazil:

  • Coccamig: reported that Arabica production in 2022 is 16% lower than last year and 53% less than in 2020, the last “on-year” in Brazil’s biennial crop. While no exact figure was provided, the cooperative confirms that the lower-than-expected numbers are reflections of the drought in the years 2021 and 22, intense cold and frost recorded last year.
  • ECOM: Brazil’s 2022-2023 crop was forecast at 61.9 million bags, an increase of 13.2% from the 54.7 million bags produced in the previous coffee year.
  • CEPEA: The recent rains observed in several coffee-producing regions in Brazil may have been enough to induce an early blooming – some farmers have reported flower buds in some crops. However, this scenario is concerning the agents in the sector, since the influence of La Niña in the coming weeks added to the typical low rainfall in August may hamper flower set.
 

image-20220201160122-7 Weather update:

image-20220201160102-6

ENSO

BOM: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of La Niña reforming later this year. This is around triple the normal likelihood.

NOAA: La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23

image-20220201160050-5

BRAZIL

Light to moderate rainfall is expected for parts of the coffee belt next week, but more rains are needed to ensure proper setting of the flowering that did already occur and to trigger the first flowering in the areas where a flowering hasn’t occurred yet.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20220902113432-1 Date

image-20220902113432-2 ICE

image-20220902113432-3Macro

image-20220902113432-4 Fundamental

Monday, September 5

Arabica market closed for Labor Day

UK S&P Global services/composite PMI
EU Retail sales

Brazil S&P Global services/
           composite PMI

Colombia exports (+/- 2 days)

Tuesday, September 6

 

US S&P Global services/composite PMI

      ISM non manufacturing PMI

China Balance of trade
            Imports and exports

 

Wednesday, September 7

 

Brazil closed for Holiday

EU GDP

       Employment change

US Balance of trade

      Imports and exports

CEPEA weekly update

Thursday, September 8

 

EU ECB interest rate decision

      Emergency energy meeting

US Jobless claims

China inflation rate

           PPI

NOAA Enso update

Friday, September 9

 

Brazil Inflation rate

US Wholesale inventories

IBGE Brazil crop update

 

CN basis report

Monday, September 12

 

 UK GDP

       Goods trade balance

       Manufacturing/
       industrial production

CeCafe Brazil exports (+/- 3 days)

Tuesday, September 13

 

UK Unemployment rate

EU ZEW economic sentiment

US Inflation rate

BOM Enso update

Wednesday, September 14

 

UK Inflation rate

      PPI

EU Industrial production

Brazil Retail sales

            Business confidence

US PPI

CEPEA weekly update

Thursday, September 15

 

EU Balance of trade

UK BoE interest rate decision

Brazil IBC-BR economic activity

US Retail sales

      Jobless claims

      Manufacturing/
      industrial production

China Industrial production

            Retail sales

            Unemployment rate

GCA data

 

Planning Ahead in September:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16

 

17

18

 

19

 

20

CONAB 3rd survey of 22-23 crop

 

ICE September Arabica last trading day

21

 

22

 

23

 

24

25

26

ICE Europe September Robusta last trading day

27

28

29

 

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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