The USDA report was broadly bearish, with higher harvested acres boosting corn and soybean production and pushing ending stocks higher across the board. Corn demand assumptions look inflated, soybean exports were cut, wheat acreage and global supplies increased, and world stocks for all three crops came in above expectations. With South American supply estimates still rising and speculative length left to unwind, there are few bullish catalysts, leaving weather or a biofuel-driven boost to bean oil demand as the only potential supports. Trading activity reflected that pressure, with close to 600,000 March corn futures changing hands in a single session, underscoring heavy liquidation and aggressive repositioning rather than fresh bullish conviction.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned President Trump that the Justice Department’s investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is creating a political and market “mess,” as the probe into the Fed’s headquarters renovation and Powell’s congressional testimony raises broader concerns about central bank independence rather than the project itself. Powell has confirmed the Fed received DOJ subpoenas and says he will remain in the job, but the investigation injects uncertainty into Fed leadership, policy credibility, and perceptions of political pressure on monetary policy. For markets, the issue is less about legal outcomes and more about increased volatility, heightened institutional risk, and added complication to expectations around future interest-rate decisions.
The 45Z clean fuel tax credit stakeholder meetings are scheduled as a series of individual OMB/OIRA listening sessions from January 13–16, with an additional day on January 20, 2026, structured as multiple 30–60 minute meetings with different industry groups to gather technical feedback rather than issue rules. This multi-day, segmented format signals that OMB is in information-gathering and issue-mapping mode, not delivering immediate, executable guidance, which helps explain why futures markets are not pricing in near-term demand impacts despite a constructive long-term policy signal. However, beneath the surface, options markets have turned more active since the meetings were announced, with rising volume and an increase in bullish structures, suggesting traders are selectively positioning for asymmetric upside tied to eventual policy clarity while acknowledging that January remains about process, not resolution.
Argentina’s President Javier Milei said he plans to travel to China in 2026, signaling a more pragmatic approach toward Beijing even as the United States is pressing Buenos Aires to curb its ties with China. Milei now describes China as a key and “very interesting” commercial partner, a clear shift from his 2023 campaign, when he sharply criticized Beijing’s political system. The comments underscore Argentina’s focus on trade and economic necessity, coming at a time when Washington has warned that U.S. support for Argentina’s IMF negotiations could depend on Buenos Aires dismantling its multibillion-dollar currency swap line with China’s central bank.
Ukraine says Russia used drones to attack two civilian ships carrying agricultural products in the Black Sea, including one vessel loading oil derived from oilseeds and another departing with a cargo of corn, injuring one crew member. The incident confirms that commercial ag shipments—not just port infrastructure—are being directly targeted, raising risk and insurance costs for Ukrainian exports. With Ukraine’s grain and legume exports already down about 31% year over year, the strikes reinforce a weakening export outlook. For markets, this adds geopolitical risk premium and limits bearish pressure on global grains, but by itself does not outweigh the ample U.S. supply picture.
Corn
B 4650 h 420 p vs s h 440 c 5/8 db vs 428
S 1000 g 425 c 3 1/8
B 1600 h 440/420 ps and 1600 h 455/485 cs 14 ¾ to 14 7/8 db
B 1000 g 440 p 18 5/8
B 1000 k 490 c 2 3/8
S 300 nz -15 cso puts 6 1/4
B 100 zn -20 cso c vs s zn -35 cso p 3 db
B 2000 h 465 c 7/8
S 1000 k 500 c 1 3/4
B 2000 h 470 c 3/4
S 1300 h 425/415/405 put flies 2 cr
B 500 g 425 p 5
S 500 h 445/430 ps 10 7/8
B 8000 h 450 c 2 to 2 1/4
B 1000 g 425 c 2 7/8
B 2000 k 410 p 4 ½ to 5 1/2
B 100 z 460 c vs s 420 p 14 db
S 500 z 460 p 32 vs 455 1/2
B 2000 g 430 p 5 3/4
S 1000 h 425 p 7 3/4
B 1000 g 425 p 3 1/8
S 1000 k 440/460 cs 6 1/8
B 600 n 430 p 13 ¾ vs 443
S 1750 h 410 p 1 7/8 vs 428 1/4
B 3000 h 440 p 15 1/8 to 15 3/4
S 3500 n 450/500 cs 11 7/8 to 11 3/8
S 2000 h 420 p 5
B 300 h 440/460 cs vs s 420 p 1 3/8 cr
S 1000 g 460 c 1/2
B 1000 h 430 p 9 to 10
B 1000 g 420 p 2 1/8
S 750 g 430 p 4 1/2
S 1000 h 440 c 5 to 4
S 500 k 450/435 ps 9 5/8
B 500 g 445 c 3
S 3000 h 450 c 9 ¼ to 9
B 1000 h 450 c 9 1/8
B 1500 g 460 c 2 3/4
B 2500 w3 455 c 3 ½ to 3 3/4
B 2000 n 500 c vs s h 500 c 10 1/8 db
S 1000 g 435p/460c strangles 4 7/8 to 4 5/8
S 2000 w3 460 c 2 1/4
S 2000 h 460 c 5 ¼ to 5 1/8
B 2000 w3 455 c 3 3/8 to 3 1/2
S 700 n 460 c 23 1/8 to 23 vs 461 1/4
S 500 h 440 p and 1500 h 460 c 23 1/8 to 23 cr
B 1500 h 440 p 6 5/8 to 7
B 750 h 455 c 6 7/8
B 500 g 460/470 cs 1 1/2
B 250 n 425 p 7 3/8
B 500 h 475 c 17 1/4
B 400 k 470 c vs s sd k 475 c 1 db
S 250 n 460 c 23 1/4
B 300 n 360 p 3/4
S 1000 h 425 p 2 1/4
S 1000 g 440 p 3 7/8
B 1000 g 445 p 6
B 250 g 425 p 3/4
B 100 n 460/430 ps vs s 500 c 2 ¾ db
B 300 g 450 c vs s g 435 p 3 5/8
S 750 sd k 500 c 4 1/8 vs 466
Beans
S 1900 k 1050 straddles from 58 to 56 3/4
S 1500 h 1030 p 8 ¾ to 8 1/4
B 1000 g 1024 p 2 1/2
S 300 k 1080 c 21
S 500 g 1050 p 10 1/8
S 500 k 1100 c 14 1/2
B 100 nx +40 cso c 6 5/8
B 1000 h 1000 p 3
S 900 h 1040/1000 ps 9 3/8
S 400 n 1120 c 23
S 1000 h 1040 p 12
B 700 g 1070 c 3 1/4
S 1000 h 1020 p 6 1/4
S 500 h 1050 p 18 5/8
B 500 g 1080 c 1 1/4
B 1300 h 1050/1070 cs 7 ¼ to 7 1/2
S 500 h 1020/990 ps 5 1/2
B 1000 x 1300 c 9 1/2
B 200 k 1080 c 21 1/2
B 500 g 1080 c 6 1/8
B 300 n 1200 c 12 3/4
S 1000 k 1060 p 21 ½ vs 1081
S 500 h 1060 p 16
S 300 h 1070 straddles 39 5/8
B 1500 h 1100 c vs s sd k 1100 c 1 ½ to 1 ¾ cr
B 1600 g 1050 p vs s 800 g 1060 p 2 db
S 800 g 1050/1030 ps 4
B 500 h 1040 p 9 1/8 vs 1067
S 300 h 1090 c 10 5/8 to 10 3/8
S 500 x 1200 c 21 1/4
B 300 g 1070 c 11 3/8 to 11 5/8
Soymeal
B 1000 g 310 c .50 to .55
S 800 h 290p/300c strangles 8.20
S 300 n 305/300 ps 2.55 cr
S 500 k 300/295 ps 2.40 vs 302.0
B 350 h 345 c .50
B 1000 w5 310 c 2.40 vs 302.3
B 100 g 290 p .50
B 100 k 300 p vs s h 300 p 2.20 db
B 200 n 290 p 3.15 vs 311.5
B 200 h 290p/310c strangles 6.20
S 200 h 310 c 3.90 vs 301.7
S 150 n 310/305 ps 2.65
Bean oil
B 2500 k 58 c vs s k 47/44 ps .330 db vs 5084
S 1000 h 56 c .430 to .400
S 1000 h 47/44 ps .330
S 1000 h 55 c .465 to .450
S 100 h 51 straddles 3.495
B 250 k 54/60 cs 1.145
B 100 h 53 c .930
B 100 n 55/65 cs 1.600
B 500 w3 50/49 ps .290
B 500 h 55 c .535 vs 5055
B 200 h 52/56 cs vs s 48 p .500 db vs 5058
S 250 h 50/55 cs 1.400
S 1500 g 4750 p .080 to .075 vs 5050
B 1500 k 52 c 2.400 vs 5095
S 500 h 58 p .615 to .580
B 300 g 5050 c .850
B 3000 h 55 c .490 to .550
On a block
B 2500 k 55/65 cs 1.280
B 500 k 58 c vs s k 47/44 ps .330 vs 5084
B 1000 k 60 c .740
Wheat
S 500 g 520 c 3 ½ to 2 3/4
B 100 h 530 c 7 1/2
S 500 g 500 p 2 ¾ vs 509 1/4
S 500 k 500p/560c strangles 27 7/8
B 200 h 500 p vs s 530 c 1 db
B 300 h 580 c 3 ¼ vs 527
S 500 g 510 p 2 ½ to 2 3/8
B 200 h 495 p 4 1/8
B 200 h 485 p 2 1/8
B 500 g 520 c 10 3/8 vs 523 1/2
B 200 g 510 3 1/4
On a block
S 400 k 535 c 26 ¾ vs 534 1/4
Kc wheat
B 400 g 570 c 1/2
B 125 g 540 c 2 3/8
B 300 g 535 c 3 5/8
B 200 h 500 p 5
S 250 g 520 p 4 1/4
S 200 g 550 c 6 3/8
B 500 h 515 p 6 vs 540
B 250 h 485 p 1 1/8
B 500 h 580 c vs s 500 p 2 ¼ to 3 1/8 db
B 150 h 510 p 5 3/8
S 500 g 550/570 cs 3 5/8
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
price graph bloomberg
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