first look 1/20
Last trading day for Feb grain options is Friday.
U.S. natural gas prices have jumped about 20% as colder weather forecasts boosted heating demand and triggered short covering, tightening near-term supply expectations despite ample underlying production.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is signaling a de-escalation message to U.S. trading partners, urging them to remain calm, honor existing trade agreements, and avoid retaliatory actions against the United States. His comments suggest the administration believes it holds the upper hand in current trade negotiations, and that allowing policies and talks to unfold over time is preferable to triggering a broader trade conflict. The message is aimed at reducing market volatility and discouraging headline-driven escalation, while making clear that restraint from other countries will help prevent a more forceful U.S. response.
Chinese importers reportedly purchased around 60,000 metric tons of Canadian canola, according to market sources, signaling renewed buying interest despite broader trade and policy uncertainty.
China outlined a broad set of policy measures aimed at supporting domestic demand and upgrading its economy through 2026. Authorities extended personal consumption loan interest subsidies and expanded support to tech re-lending, while committing targeted aid to sectors such as new energy vehicles, industrial machinery, pharmaceuticals, and AI, including a CNY 5 billion injection into a government guarantee fund. Policymakers said they will tighten oversight of industrial capacity, curb disorderly low-price competition, and shift more focus toward services to stimulate demand. Longer term, China plans to push high-tech projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan, develop a 2026–2030 domestic demand expansion strategy, explore a national M&A fund to accelerate industrial upgrading, and pursue a more proactive fiscal stance alongside moderately loose monetary policy, with restoring prices a central goal.
China has met its target of purchasing 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans, according to Bloomberg citing traders, signaling that despite ongoing trade tensions, Chinese importers have continued to source large volumes from the U.S. This supports near-term U.S. soybean export demand and suggests Beijing is maintaining agricultural buying commitments even as broader trade negotiations remain uncertain.
U.S. President Trump commented on Mark Carney’s engagement with China, saying it is fine for him to pursue a deal with Beijing and that if he can secure an agreement with China, he should do so, signaling a pragmatic stance toward allied leaders negotiating independently with China.
Brazil’s beef export association ABIEC plans to meet with federal government officials this week to discuss how to mitigate the impact of new Chinese safeguard measures on beef imports, which include tight volume limits and sharply higher tariffs on shipments exceeding those quotas. The discussions are expected to center on diplomatic and technical responses, such as clarifying how quotas are administered, addressing the treatment of cargo already in transit, and exploring whether any flexibility or quota adjustments can be negotiated with China. While the measures create clear risks for Brazilian beef exports to its largest market, ABIEC has signaled that Brazil will seek to limit the damage through government engagement and, if necessary, by redirecting exports to alternative markets.
China’s financial authorities are tightening oversight of stock market speculation and encouraging longer-term investment to improve stability, even as officials acknowledge that weak demand remains a central challenge. According to the China Securities Journal, regulators are pushing to curb excess trading, while Fitch said recent stimulus measures have helped stabilize markets but are unlikely to meaningfully revive property demand. The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy showed steady growth in 2025 despite multiple pressures, with supply-demand imbalances still prominent and net exports contributing a significant 31.1% of Q4 GDP growth, while policymakers plan more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand. Recent data were mixed: unemployment edged slightly lower to 5.1%, Q4 GDP growth broadly met targets at around 5% on a year-to-date basis, industrial production and capacity utilization surprised modestly to the upside, but fixed asset investment, retail sales, and housing prices remained weak, underscoring ongoing stress in the property sector. The NBS said production, prices, and expectations have shown some improvement since the start of the year and expressed cautious confidence that China can maintain stable growth momentum in 2026 as policy support gradually gains traction.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he has someone in mind for the next Fed Chair, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed speculation around specific candidates, saying Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is best used in her current role, confirming BlackRock’s Rick Rieder met with Trump recently, noting Miran can remain at the Fed past January 31, and adding that it will ultimately be Jerome Powell’s decision whether to stay on after May, responding “we’ll see” when asked if Kevin Warsh is the favorite. Separately, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he does not want to prejudge the January rate decision, acknowledging some upside inflation risks remain even as he expects inflation to continue moving back toward 2%, though elevated core goods prices are inconsistent with that goal; he said he is cautiously optimistic for 2026 but sees risks to both employment and price stability, expects near-term economic growth around 2% with unemployment holding steady, and said rate cuts since 2024 have brought policy closer to neutral, leaving the Fed well positioned to decide the timing and extent of future adjustments.
The United States is seeking a rare-earth supply deal with Brazil as Washington looks to diversify critical mineral sourcing away from China, according to the Financial Times, underscoring the strategic push to secure alternative supply chains. At the same time, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Brazil is looking to build new partnerships with Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Japan, and China, highlighting Brazil's effort to broaden its trade and diplomatic relationships even as major powers compete for influence over critical resources.
U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries—Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Finland, the Netherlands, and the UK—effective February 1, citing the Greenland dispute, with the tariff scheduled to rise to 25% on June 1 unless a deal is reached for the purchase of Greenland. In response, the European Union is preparing up to €93 billion in retaliatory measures that could include tariffs on U.S. goods or restrictions on American companies operating in Europe, as European leaders meet for an emergency session, according to the Financial Times. Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to urge the EU to activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which would mark a significant escalation by allowing broader countermeasures beyond traditional tariffs, according to Agence France-Presse.
| Outside Markets | Price | Change | % Change |
| Dow | 48,893 | (654.00) | -1.32 |
| Crude | 60.06 | 0.62 | 1.04 |
| US Dollar | 98.1850 | (1.016) | -1.02 |
| Gold | 4,725.29 | 54.400 | 1.16 |
| US 2/10 Swap | 69.6160 | 6.3500 | - |
| VIX | 19.89 | 1.05 | - |
| | | | |
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 100 k 430/405 ps vs s 470 c 6 db
B 300 k 420 c vs s 600 k 440 c paying even
S 100 k 440 c 9 1/8 to 9
B 200 k 460 c 4 ½ to 4 5/8
S 200 h 450 c 1
S 200 h 425 p 7 5/8 to 7 1/2
Beans
B 100 h 950 p 3/8
B 200 g 1050 c 11 to 11 3/8
Soymeal
B 250 k 340 c 1.55 to 1.60
S 100 k 350 c 1.10
Bean oil
B 100 h 51/49 ps .535
Wheat
B 100 h 520/545 cs vs s 505 p 1 db
S 200 h 535 c 7
B 100 g 520 p 4 7/8
Open interest changes
Corn
May 435 straddle sales and july 420 put sales were new.
Beans
May 1070 put sale, march 1060 put sale, may 1070 straddle buy, march 1100 call buy, april 1060 call buy, may 1180 call sale, march 1040 put buy and april 1100 call sales were new...
Soymeal
March 290/280 put spread sale was rolling a short...feb 295/305 cs buy was new
Bean oil
March 50 put sale was new....feb 51/5250 call spread sale was rolling a long
Lean hogs
April 93/90 put spread sale was rolling a short...april 100 call sale was closing ....june 108/114 call spread buy was new.
Cvol
Ags 17.47% up .40%
Corn 14.41% down .56% (1 month low)
Beans 13.33% down .32% (3 month low)
Soymeal 18.97% up .53%
Bean oil 27.09% down .49%
Wheat 21.32% up .40%
Feeder cattle 20.51% up 1.96%
Live cattle 17.06% up 1.30%
Lean hogs 20.69% down .53%
Class 3 milk 15.78% up .04%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Crush
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg
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