The Goldman roll starts tomorrow for March grain futures
The February survey of Brazil and Argentina production estimates reinforces expectations for ample South American supply into the 2025/26 cycle. Brazil corn is seen around 133 MMT and soybeans near 179 MMT, both slightly above USDA’s January outlook and supportive of strong export availability later in the year. Argentina production is estimated near 53 MMT for corn and 48 MMT for soybeans, showing recovery from recent stress but still below longer-term potential. Overall, the survey aligns with a broadly bearish supply backdrop for global corn and soybeans unless weather or policy risks materially shift the outlook.
Canada is moving to rework its tariff system to better retain auto manufacturing investment, introducing an “import credit” mechanism that would lower tariffs for companies producing vehicles domestically while maintaining retaliatory duties on U.S.-made autos. For agriculture, the significance lies less in autos themselves and more in the signal of a more activist and conditional Canadian trade posture, which could spill over into broader US–Canada trade discussions. Heightened policy complexity raises the risk of knock-on uncertainty for cross-border ag flows—particularly grains, livestock, and processed food—where integrated supply chains depend on predictable tariff treatment and stable bilateral relations.
The latest JOLTS data point to a cooling but still resilient U.S. labor market, with job openings falling to 6.54 million, well below the prior reading and expectations, signaling softer labor demand. At the same time, job quits rose to 3.20 million, above both the previous month and forecasts, suggesting workers still feel confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily. Taken together, the report shows easing tightness on the demand side of the labor market without a clear breakdown in worker confidence, reinforcing the idea of gradual normalization rather than a sharp labor slowdown.
Green Plains reported earnings that showed modest improvement in profitability driven by stronger ethanol margins and cost control, even as volumes were pressured by softer fuel demand. On the agricultural side, grain costs remained a key driver of earnings volatility—wider corn basis and feedstock cost fluctuations weighed on results, though the firm continued to benefit from value-added coproducts like distillers grains. Overall, the report suggests better operational resilience in renewable fuels, but continued sensitivity to corn and ethanol market dynamics, which keeps ag fundamentals front and center for profitability.
The U.S. is signaling a tougher and more conditional approach toward Canada on trade, tying market access more closely to broader geopolitical alignment. For agriculture, this adds uncertainty around North American trade flows, particularly for grains, livestock, and food products where U.S. and Canadian interests overlap. The shift raises the risk of policy-driven friction and less predictable market access for producers, processors, and exporters that rely on stable cross-border trade.
Corn
S 5000 n 390 p 2 ¼
B 3000 h 420 p 7/8
B 1000 n 500/550 cs 3 3/4
S 500 k 420p/480c strangles 7 5/8
S 2000 h 430 p 4 3/8 to 4 1/4
B 100 z 500 c vs s z 420 p 4 3/8
B 100 z 500 c vs s z 400 p 9 5/8
S 500 n 410p/470c strangles 17
B 3000 n 430p/460c strangles 25 7/8 to 26
S 400 z 460 straddles 57 ¾ vs 456 1/2
B 1000 h 450 c 7 3/8
S 2000 h 430 p 4 3/8 to 4 1/4
B 1800 h 430 p 4 5/8
S 500 h 425 p 2 7/8 vs 430 1/4
B 500 k 450 c 8 ½ to 8 5/8 vs 439 1/4
S 1500 h 435 c 5 1/8 to 5
S 1500 h 440 c 3 ½ to 3 3/8
S 500 z 460 p 28 1/2
S 400 z 460 straddles 58 ¼ vs 460 1/2
B 500 sd h 460/450 ps 2 1/2
B 1800 k 450 c 9 7/8 to 10 vs 442 1/4
Beans
B 1200 k 1140 c 26 5/8 to 26 7/8 vs 1124
B 750 n 1300/1400 cs vs s 1000 p ½ db
S 100 f27 1100 c 59 ½ vs 1104
S 200 x 1070 p 42 5/8
S 1000 h 1050 p 7/8
B 500 h 1080 p 5
B 500 h 1080/1060 ps 2 3/4
B 1700 h 1140 c 5 ½ to 5 7/8 vs 1109 1/4
B 700 n 1100/1180 cs 33 ¾ vs 1133
S 600 k 1100/1160 cs 24 5/8 vs 1121
S 1000 j 1100 p 15 ½ to 15
B 200 nx +70 cso c vs s 200 nx _20 p 1 ½ db
S 100 u 1100 straddles 106 ¾
S 1000 nx +50 cso c vs b 1500 nx +100 cso c 12 cr
B 400 n 1400 c 3 5/8
B 1000 sd h 1100 c vs s h 1100 c 7 ½ cr
S 500 j 1090 p 12
S 1000 k 1080 p and 2000 k 1140 c collecting 59 vs 1114 1/2
B 800 n 1040/1000 ps 5 7/8 to 6 1/8
B 2000 h 1070 p 3 to 3 5/8
B 1000 sd n 1100 c 31 to 35 1/2
B 1000 k 1150 c 21 1/2
S 1000 k 1040 p 7 to 5 7/8
S 500 n 1120 c 50 ¾ vs 1132 1/4
B 500 j 1130/1180 cs covered vs 1120 against s h 1070 p vs 1106 ¼ paying 10 1/2
S 500 k 1100/1160 cs 24 7/8
B 500 h 1080 p 5 ½ to 6 1/4
S 1000 h 1090 c vs b 2000 k 1200 c 2 ¾ cr
S 200 nx +50 cso c 13
B 500 k 1100 c 38 1/4
B 200 j 1100 c 41 1/2
B 750 n 1260 c vs s 1500 n 1400 c and 750 n 1000 p 3/8 db
S 800 k 1140/1200 cs 15 3/4
B 750 j 1160/1230 cs 10 1/4
B 2250 h 1130/1160 cs 5 ¼ to 5 7/8
On a block
B 1000 u 1180 c 25 7/8 vs 1091
B 750 n 1130 p vs s 1500 n 1080 p 1 ½ db vs 1135
Soymeal
S 200 k 320 c 6.90
S 200 k 310 c 10.35
B 200 k 325 c 5.30
S 800 h 305 c 4.40 to 3.35
S 500 h 300 c 7.00 to 6.75
S 100 k 305 straddles 21.55
S 150 n 320 c 10.55
B 300 n 280 p 2.60
B 500 h 320 c .95
S 400 k 320 c 5.30 to 5.25
S 300 n 300 straddles 27.50 vs 310.2
B 800 h 310 c 2.00 to 2.50
S 600 j 300 p 5.25
Bean oil
B 1200 k 52 p vs s k 62 c .050 cr vs 56.00 on a 100 delta
B 600 nz +2.25 cso c vs s 300 nz +1.00 cso call paying even
B 250 k 58/65 cs vs s 50 p .850 db
B 750 n 90 c .185 to .190
B 500 h 54/59 cs 1.980
S 300 h 51 p .110
B 500 h 53 p .315
B 1000 k 5650/6150 cs 1.510 vs 5598
B 1200 j 58/63 cs vs s 50 p .760 to .780 db
S 500 k 62 c vs b 500 k 51 p .200 to .180 cr
B 100 h 58 c vs s 52 p .190 db
On a block
S 500 k 62 c vs b k 51 p .170 cr
S 1500 k 5750/65 cs 1.710
B 750 k 65 c .735 vs 5610
Wheat
B 1500 h 530/525 ps vs s h 535 c 7 ¾ cr vs 534 1/2
B 400 h 535 c 9 1/8
B 400 h 540 c 5 1/4
B 1000 h 520 p 4 vs 535
Kc wheat
B 100 h 545 c 6 3/4
B 100 h 565 c 2 5/8
S 200 h 520p/550c strangles 8 ¾
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C H6 | 435.00 | 5.50 | 435 | 15.5 | 1.60 | 8.75 | 4.25 | 6.56 | 23.94 | 15 |
| C J6 | 443.00 | 6.00 | 445 | 14.6 | 0.90 | 9.00 | 4.07 | 6.32 | 22.65 | 50 |
| C K6 | 443.00 | 6.00 | 445 | 16.3 | 0.90 | 9.00 | 4.55 | 6.32 | 22.65 | 78 |
| C M6 | 449.25 | 6.00 | 450 | 16.7 | 0.70 | 8.75 | 4.73 | 6.08 | 21.47 | 106 |
| C N6 | 449.25 | 6.00 | 450 | 18.0 | 0.60 | 8.75 | 5.09 | 6.08 | 21.47 | 141 |
| C U6 | 447.00 | 4.50 | 445 | 20.1 | 0.50 | 7.25 | 5.66 | 4.35 | 15.43 | 197 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S H6 | 1112.25 | 20.00 | 1110 | 17.5 | 2.10 | 26.50 | 12.26 | 10.44 | 14.90 | 15 |
| S J6 | 1126.00 | 21.25 | 1130 | 16.4 | 2.20 | 27.25 | 11.63 | 10.53 | 14.84 | 50 |
| S K6 | 1126.00 | 21.25 | 1130 | 16.4 | 1.80 | 27.25 | 11.63 | 10.53 | 14.84 | 78 |
| S M6 | 1137.25 | 20.50 | 1140 | 16.1 | 1.50 | 26.00 | 11.53 | 10.14 | 14.15 | 106 |
| S N6 | 1137.25 | 20.50 | 1140 | 16.4 | 1.30 | 26.00 | 11.75 | 10.14 | 14.15 | 141 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W H6 | 535.25 | 8.50 | 535 | 24.2 | 2.40 | 13.75 | 8.16 | 7.08 | 20.99 | 15 |
| W J6 | 544.00 | 7.75 | 545 | 23.2 | 1.30 | 12.75 | 7.95 | 6.64 | 19.38 | 50 |
| W K6 | 544.00 | 7.75 | 545 | 23.1 | 0.90 | 12.75 | 7.92 | 6.64 | 19.38 | 78 |
| W M6 | 554.75 | 7.50 | 555 | 23.3 | 0.70 | 12.75 | 8.14 | 6.26 | 17.90 | 106 |
| W N6 | 554.75 | 7.50 | 555 | 24.3 | 0.70 | 12.75 | 8.49 | 6.26 | 17.90 | 141 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWH6 | 538.50 | 8.25 | 540 | 24.4 | 1.80 | 12.50 | 8.28 | 7.28 | 21.47 | 15 |
| KWJ6 | 550.50 | 7.75 | 550 | 23.7 | 1.00 | 12.50 | 8.22 | 7.02 | 20.23 | 50 |
| KWK6 | 550.50 | 7.75 | 550 | 23.6 | 0.90 | 12.50 | 8.18 | 7.02 | 20.23 | 78 |
| KWN6 | 564.00 | 7.25 | 565 | 24.4 | 0.60 | 11.75 | 8.67 | 6.92 | 19.48 | 141 |
| KWU6 | 578.75 | 6.75 | 580 | 25.0 | 0.40 | 11.25 | 9.11 | 6.76 | 18.55 | 197 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOH6 | 55.65 | -0.01 | 55.5 | 28.4 | 1.40 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 21.99 | 15 |
| BOJ6 | 56.17 | -0.01 | 56 | 29.5 | 0.50 | 0.78 | 1.04 | 0.76 | 21.48 | 50 |
| BOK6 | 56.17 | -0.01 | 56 | 29.6 | 0.60 | 0.78 | 1.05 | 0.76 | 21.48 | 78 |
| BON6 | 56.39 | -0.01 | 56.5 | 28.4 | 0.40 | 0.77 | 1.01 | 0.73 | 20.60 | 141 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMH6 | 303.20 | 7.00 | 305 | 21.0 | 2.50 | 10.00 | 4.01 | 3.84 | 20.10 | 15 |
| SMJ6 | 306.90 | 6.60 | 305 | 19.7 | 2.30 | 9.60 | 3.81 | 3.54 | 18.29 | 50 |
| SMK6 | 306.90 | 6.60 | 305 | 19.8 | 2.30 | 9.60 | 3.83 | 3.54 | 18.29 | 78 |
| SMN6 | 311.40 | 6.60 | 310 | 18.9 | 1.80 | 9.20 | 3.71 | 3.36 | 17.12 |
141
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sources
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options data globex
vols bloomberg
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