Approximately 930,000 soybean futures contracts traded yesterday, setting a new all-time daily volume record and underscoring exceptionally heavy participation and positioning activity in the market.
A senior Chinese official said China will “deeply participate” in agricultural trade and expand imports of farm products, reinforcing Beijing’s commitment to global ag markets. The comments, tied to China’s 2026 rural development blueprint, also signaled strong ongoing demand for soybean imports, underscoring the importance of oilseeds in China’s food security and feed supply strategy and supporting expectations for sustained import needs in the years ahead.
US President Donald Trump said he had a long and productive telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping that covered a wide range of issues, including trade, military matters, and plans for Trump’s upcoming April visit to China. According to China’s state media, Xi said he is willing to work with Trump in the spirit of the Chinese New Year and emphasized the importance of maintaining a good relationship between the two countries. At the same time, Xi stressed that Taiwan remains a core and highly sensitive issue in US-China relations and urged the United States to handle it with caution, underscoring that strategic tensions persist even as both sides signal interest in continued engagement.
The PBoC injected CNY 118.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40% and CNY 300 billion via 14-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.65%, stepping up liquidity support ahead of the Chinese New Year/Spring Festival holiday period. The timing reflects typical pre-holiday funding needs as cash demand rises and market participation thins, with Chinese New Year beginning on February 17.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has pushed back several key economic releases due to the recent disruption, reshaping the near-term data calendar. The January employment report has been rescheduled for February 11, the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will now be released on February 5, and the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has been moved to February 13. The delays compress a number of labor and inflation data points into a short window, which could heighten market sensitivity as investors reassess growth, labor market momentum, and inflation trends all at once.
Iran–U.S. nuclear talks scheduled for Friday were initially reported as cancelled after Iran refused to engage on issues beyond the nuclear file. Subsequent reports said the talks are back on and expected to proceed in Oman, after several Arab and Muslim leaders urgently lobbied the Trump administration on Wednesday afternoon not to follow through on threats to walk away. U.S. officials cited by Axios said the diplomatic intervention helped keep the negotiations alive.
Fed Governor Cook said she remains focused on inflation risks and emphasized that, in assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, she sees risks on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. She noted that progress on inflation has stalled, calling the recent plateau frustrating after the significant disinflation achieved over the past few years. Cook stressed that maintaining the Fed’s credibility requires returning to a clear disinflationary path. While she expressed hope that goods inflation will ease relatively quickly, she added that once it does, inflation should resume moving lower overall.
January US services-sector data showed continued expansion but with some softening in labor momentum and persistent price pressures. S&P Global’s Services PMI and Composite PMI both came in slightly above expectations, pointing to steady growth across the service economy. ISM Services PMI matched its prior reading and edged above forecasts, with business activity improving, but new orders slowed notably from December. Prices paid rose further, reinforcing the message that inflation pressures in services remain elevated. Employment signals were mixed to weaker: ISM services employment barely stayed in expansion territory and missed expectations, while ADP private payroll growth came in well below forecasts, suggesting hiring momentum cooled into January despite resilient demand.
EU lawmakers said the European Parliament has agreed to resume talks on implementing the US trade agreement, with a preliminary vote potentially scheduled for February 24. The move signals renewed momentum in advancing the agreement through the European Union’s legislative process after a period of delay.
The US Trade Representative said the United States and Mexico will spend the next 60 days exploring the use of border-adjusted price floors for imports of critical minerals. The discussions will also include consultations on how such price floors could be incorporated into a broader plurilateral agreement on critical minerals trade, signaling a potential shift toward coordinated price and trade frameworks aimed at stabilizing supply chains and countering market distortions.
| Outside Markets | Price | Change | % Change | | |
| Dow | 49,567 | (22.00) | -0.04 | | |
| Crude | 64.30 | (0.84) | -1.29 | | |
| US Dollar | 97.7250 | 0.236 | 0.24 | | |
| Gold | 4,870.96 | (93.970) | -1.89 | | |
| US 2/10 Swap | 72.4360 | 0.8150 | - | | |
| VIX | 19.31 | 0.67 | - | | |
| | | | | | |
| CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest | | | | |
| | Previous Volume | Change in OI | Options Volume | Change in Options OI | |
| Corn | 512,374 | 5,920 | 79,110 | 16,858 | |
| SRW | 154,168 | (3,394) | 21,465 | 3,966 | |
| HRW | 81,403 | (698) | - | (648) | |
| Soybeans | 930,021 | 16,470 | 206,165 | 24,782 | |
| Meal | 344,545 | (6,167) | 47,584 | (2,526) | |
| Oil | 324,411 | 5,955 | 59,648 | 10,900 | |
| Feeders | 23,745 | (293) | 10,216 | 2,843 | |
| Live Cattle | 71,364 | 2,822 | 20,766 | 2,292 | |
| Hogs | 72,979 | 2,415 | 28,574 | 4,830 | |
| | | | | | |
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 2300 h 385 p 1/8
B 1000 h 440c 2
B 800 h 415 p 1
B 975 n 440/470 cs 10
Beans
S 2000 n 1200 c 17 ¼ to 15
B 500 h 1060 p 2 1/2
S 850 k 1070/1040 ps 8 1/8
B 500 k 1040 p 7
S 200 j 1130 c 10
B 1250 k 1060/1090 cs 18 1/8 to 18 1/4
B 500 h 1120/1150 cs 3 3/4
B 200 k 1070 c 49 3/8
S 100 n 1090 c 51 7/8
B 400 h 1070 c 26 7/8 to 27 1/4
B 600 n 1180 c 22 1/8 vs 1121 1/4
B 500 x 1030 p 25 5/8
S 1000 j 1060/810 ps 5 ¾ vs 1109 3/4
B 400 x 1600 c 3
B 200 sd k 1050 p 10 vs 1089
On a block
S 500 k 1110 straddles 61 3/8 vs 1112 3/4
Soymeal
B 300 h 320 c .85 vs 297.3
Bean oil
S 200 h 56 c 1.090
B 275 h 49 p .055
Kc wheat
B 250 k 540 c 6 1/2
Open interest changes
Corn
April 435 straddle sale, sept 490 call buy, july 450 call buy, short july 460 call sale and march 435 call buys were new.....march 420 put buy and march 440 call buys were closing
Beans
March 1100 call buy and may 1080 call buys were closing...nov 1200 call buy and April 1100 call buys were new....may 1100/1110 call spread sale and march 1070/1040 put spread buys were rolling longs
Soymeal
March 300 call buys were closing
Bean oil
May 60/70 call spread buy, march 52 put sale, may 62 call sale, may 51 put buy and april 65 call buys were new
Wheat
April 575 call buy and march 525/530 call spreads buys were new....march 545 call sale and march 520 put sales were closing
Lean hogs
June 108/106 put spread buy and april 97/95 put spreads buys were rolling longs
Cvol
Ags 17.94% up .87%
Corn 15.02% down .04%
Beans 15.75% up 2.64%
Soymeal 21.60% up 3.85%
Bean oil 29.56% up 1.76% (3 month high)
Wheat 23.25% down .22%
Feeder cattle 17.60% down .33%
Live cattle 15.54% down .07%
Lean hogs 20.00% up .20%
Class 3 milk 24.51% up 2.81%
corn
beans
soymeal
bean oil
wheat
kc wheat
miax wheat
oats
rough rice
crush
feeder cattle
live cattle
lean hogs
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg
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