first look 2/9

 

first look 2/9

 

Friday’s soybean futures session traded approximately 932,000 contracts, edging out Wednesday and becoming the largest single-day volume in soybean futures history. Rather than fading after the initial headline shock earlier in the week, market participation intensified into Friday, underscoring just how unsettled positioning remains across the complex. The scale of turnover points to aggressive two-way trade, with continued short covering, fresh hedging, and active fund and commercial repositioning occurring simultaneously. When volume expands to this degree late in the week, it typically signals a market still working through a major positioning reset, with participants actively reassessing exposure rather than converging on a clear directional consensus.

 

 

China signaled that a potential U.S. arms sale to Taiwan would be viewed as a serious provocation and could undermine broader diplomatic engagement, including President Trump’s planned state visit to China in April, according to the Financial Times. The warning underscores Beijing’s long-standing position that arms transfers to Taiwan violate its “One China” principle and represent direct interference in its internal affairs. Chinese officials are reportedly using the prospect of the visit as leverage, suggesting that progress on high-level diplomacy and cooperation could stall if Washington moves forward with the deal. The episode highlights the persistent tension between U.S. security commitments to Taiwan and efforts to stabilize the wider U.S.–China relationship, particularly at a time when both sides are also navigating sensitive trade, technology, and geopolitical disputes.

 

Today marks day 2 of 5 of the Goldman roll for March grain futures, a period that typically brings elevated volume, wider intraday swings, and mechanical spread pressure as index-linked funds shift length out of the nearby March contracts and into deferred months. With soybean participation already running at historic levels, the roll adds another layer of liquidity and noise, increasing the likelihood of sharp but technically driven moves that may not reflect changes in underlying fundamentals.

 

The Reuters trade estimates ahead of the February 10 USDA WASDE point to a mostly unchanged report. Expected U.S. ending stocks for corn (2.236 bb), soybeans (351 mb), and wheat (915 mb) remain steady, and global production shifts are minimal, with only slight increases for Brazil and stable-to-softer expectations for Argentina. With global stocks also nearly unchanged, the trade does not anticipate USDA confirming recent bullish momentum. February is shaping up as a placeholder WASDE, leaving market direction to positioning, South American logistics, and trade rhetoric until the March 31 Grain Stocks report.

 

The January U.S. jobs report has been rescheduled to February 11, pushing a key macro data point deeper into an already crowded week for markets. That delay means labor data will now hit after the February USDA WASDE, increasing the risk of post-report volatility spilling across equities, rates, the dollar, and commodities. With jobs, CPI, and central-bank messaging clustered tightly together, macro reactions could quickly override agricultural fundamentals in the short term, especially if the employment data shifts expectations around Fed policy, interest rates, or the dollar just as grain markets are digesting largely status-quo USDA numbers.

 

China is reportedly encouraging banks to limit their exposure to U.S. Treasuries due to rising market risks, according to Bloomberg sources. The guidance is aimed at commercial institutions and does not apply to China’s state-held U.S. Treasury reserves.

The United States and India announced on Friday that they have reached a framework for an interim trade agreement focused on reciprocal and mutually beneficial market access. Under the framework, India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods and a wide range of U.S. food and agricultural products, while the United States will apply a reciprocal tariff rate of 18% and remove tariffs on certain aircraft and aircraft parts. The agreement also calls for a significant expansion in bilateral trade in technology products, and India indicated it intends to purchase approximately $500 billion of U.S. energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and coking coal over the next five years. In addition, India agreed to eliminate restrictive import licensing procedures that have delayed market access for, or imposed quantitative restrictions on, U.S. information and communications technology goods.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he held a very important meeting with the president of Honduras, during which they discussed a range of issues, including investment and trade between the two countries.

 

Fed officials struck a cautious but flexible tone on policy, with Vice Chair Jefferson saying current monetary policy is roughly neutral and well positioned to handle what lies ahead, emphasizing that future moves will be driven by incoming data and the economic outlook, while stressing he does not want to see further weakening in the labor market. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the data-dependent approach, saying she keeps an open mind on interest rates and leans toward rate cuts in 2026, though the exact number remains unclear, adding that while holding rates steady was appropriate last week, a cut could be justified if inflation confidence improves or if the labor market shows clearer signs of strain.

 

U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats will not support passage of the remaining government funding for the Department of Homeland Security unless reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement are included.

 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Chinese traders were responsible for the sharp volatility in the gold market last week, adding that authorities in China are being forced to tighten margin requirements in response to the excessive swings.

 

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s LDP secured a landslide victory in Sunday’s snap election, with NHK exit polls showing the party alone on track for a majority of roughly 274–328 seats, while the broader coalition with Ishin could win about 302–366 seats in the 465-seat lower house. A supermajority of at least 310 seats would give the coalition the ability to override the upper house on legislation. Following the result, Takaichi said the government will accelerate consideration of sales tax cuts and submit a bill if approved by the government council. She reiterated that a weak yen carries both benefits and drawbacks, stressed her goal of building resilience against foreign exchange swings, and said Japan will continue with responsible, proactive fiscal policy while maintaining fiscal sustainability. She also indicated she is considering major changes to the current cabinet.

 

U.S. President Trump posted that the stock market and national security are at record levels, crediting tariffs for the gains. He predicted the Dow could reach 100,000 by the end of his term, reiterated that he believes his policies have been proven right, and added that he hopes the U.S. Supreme Court is paying attention.

 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed to fresh record highs after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory delivered a supermajority, giving markets confidence in political stability and policy continuity. Investors interpreted the decisive result as lowering legislative risk and increasing the government’s ability to advance pro-growth fiscal, tax, and structural policies without major resistance. That clarity boosted risk appetite for Japanese equities, particularly exporters and cyclicals, and reinforced expectations that Japan will maintain supportive economic policy amid a volatile global backdrop.

 

Outside Markets	Price	Change	% Change
Dow	50,178	(27.00)	-0.05
Crude	63.24	(0.31)	-0.49
US Dollar	97.2100	(0.296)	-0.30
Gold	4,990.16	25.800	0.52
US 2/10 Swap	72.0150	1.5840	-
VIX	18.57	0.81	-
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest
	Previous Volume	Change in OI	Options Volume	Change in Options OI
Corn	516,497	(23,476)	113,096	27,785
SRW	212,414	(8,052)	10,572	2,274
HRW	110,959	(6,401)	-	343
Soybeans	932,801	9,436	239,281	38,001
Meal	348,828	(6,298)	28,786	1,122
Oil	347,112	5,133	47,781	14,467
Feeders	39,345	(1,320)	3,031	1,150
Live Cattle	104,012	(3,090)	37,083	(133,722)
Hogs	57,777	3,972	12,051	4,116

 

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 300 j 460 c 2 ¾ 

 

Beans

S 500 k 1080p/1200c strangles 26 ¼ to 25 5/8 

S 200 n 1080 p 20 ¼ to 20 1/8 vs 1133 1/4

B 1000 h 1080 p 4 to 4 3/4

S 500 n 1200 c 22 1/2

S 400 h 1010 p 3/8 

B 700 j 1010 p 1 3/8 

B 150 j 1020 p 1 5/8 

S 300 k 1120 p 33

 

Soymeal

B 250 h 305/310 cs .95

B 250 w2 305/310 cs .75

S 400 h 300 c 3.80

 

Wheat

B 200 h 510/490 ps 1 5/8 

 

Open interest changes

Corn

March 425/440 cs sale, dec 500/530 call spread buy, march 430 put buy and march 420 put buys were closing...dec 475/550 call spread buy vs sale of 400 puts was new

 

Beans

July 1250/1350 call spread buy and week 4 1150 call buys were new....march 1080 call sale, march 1000 put buy, may 1090/1070 put spread buy and w4 1150 call sales were closing....may 1200/1260 call spread sale was rolling a long

 

Bean oil

July 60/65/75 skinny fly sale was rolling a long in to a call spread.....july 65/75 call spread buy, may 5650/6150 call spread buy and july 51/46 put spread buys were new

 

Cvol

Ags 19.75% up .03%

Corn 16.08% down .20%

Beans 18.72% up .64%

Soymeal 23.44% down .43%

Bean oil 32.51% down .28%

Wheat 24.50% down .58%

Feeder cattle 19.41% down .18%

Live cattle 18.71% up .43%

Lean hogs 19.68% down .39%

Class 3 milk 23.42% down 1.43%

 

corn

soybeans

soymeal

bean oil

wheat

kc wheat

miax wheat

oats

rough rice

crush

feeder cattle 

live cattle

lean hogs

 

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg