China sharply increased imports of Brazilian beef in January, with shipments up about 35% year over year to 123,200 tons representing nearly 47% of Brazil’s total beef exports by both volume and value and reinforcing China as Brazil’s dominant buyer. Total Brazilian beef exports reached a January record of 264,000 tons up 26.1% from a year earlier, while export revenue surged 40.2% to $1.404 billion. The United States was the second-largest destination at roughly 29,900 tons, and together China and the U.S. accounted for about 60% of Brazil’s beef export value. The figures highlight China’s growing leverage over Brazil’s beef sector, cap upside for U.S. beef exports to China, intensify competition in third-country markets, and support global cattle prices while potentially pressuring U.S. domestic beef values if imports rise.
The February WASDE left U.S. corn production and yield unchanged, with the 2025/26 crop still pegged at 17.021 billion bushels and yield at 186.5 bpa, but made a modestly supportive demand-side adjustment. U.S. corn ending stocks were reduced to 2.127 billion bushels from 2.227 billion in January, driven by a 100 million bushel increase in exports, while domestic use categories, including feed and ethanol, were left unchanged. Globally, world corn ending stocks fell to 289 million metric tons from 290.9 million previously, reinforcing a slightly tighter global balance sheet. In soybeans, U.S. ending stocks were held at 350 million bushels, offering no new surprise, while wheat ending stocks came in at 931 million bushels, keeping wheat burdensome. Overall, the report leaned mildly supportive for corn on lower stocks and higher exports, neutral for soybeans, and still heavy for wheat.
U.S. retail sales were a clear downside surprise across the board. Headline sales were flat versus expectations for a solid gain, while sales excluding autos also printed 0.0% instead of the expected increase. Most notably, the control group—which feeds directly into GDP—fell 0.1% when the market was looking for a strong positive reading. Together, this points to a meaningful slowdown in underlying consumer momentum, suggesting demand is softening beyond autos and weather noise, and it reinforces the narrative that growth is cooling as higher rates continue to bite.
The United States has stopped supporting climate-linked lending at the IMF, voting against or abstaining from financing programs it had previously backed. The shift, tied to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Trump administration, reflects a broader move away from participation in multilateral climate initiatives. While the U.S. does not hold a formal veto, its roughly 16.5% voting share gives the decision real weight and could influence the IMF’s review of its Resilience and Sustainability Trust later this year.
Coca-Cola’s guidance was essentially in line with expectations. Management projected mid-single-digit organic revenue growth of about 4–5% and EPS growth of roughly 7–8% for 2026, supported by continued pricing power, steady global demand, and manageable currency effects. However, the outlook did not point to a meaningful acceleration in volumes or growth, reinforcing a steady, defensive earnings profile rather than a bullish surprise, which contributed to the muted to slightly negative market reaction.
China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee will hold its 21st session on February 25–26 in Beijing. The meeting is expected to address legislative and policy matters and can provide signals on near-term regulatory and economic priorities.
Corn
B 400 z 460 straddles 56 ½ to 56 7/8
B 500 k 435 straddles 24 to 24 3/8
B 750 k 445 c 9 1/8 vs 437 1/2
S 500 k 440 c 10 5/8 vs 436 3/4
S 300 z 480 c 20 1/4
B 1000 u 440 p 22 7/8 vs 443
B 1500 k 460 c 4 ¾ to 5
S 2000 n 475 c vs b 2000 n 415 p 2 ½ cr vs 444 3/4
S 2000 k 425 p vs s 2000 k 490 c 4 ½ vs 438
S 200 n 440 straddles 36 5/8
B 2000 n 500/550 cs 2 ¾ vs 444 3/4
B 1000 k 460 c 4 ¾ to 4 7/8
B 100 u 405 p 8 ½ vs 441
B 2000 h 440 c 7/8
B 500 k 450 c 7 1/2
B 1000 h 423 p 1 7/8 vs 429
S 200 u 490 c 10
B 1000 h 430 p 3 7/8 to 4 1/2
S 9000 july 470 c 10 ¼ to 9 ¾
B 1000 n 500 c vs s 500 n 455 c 5 cr vs 445 3/4
B 3000 n 475 c 8 7/8
B 1000 n 495 c vs s 1000 sd n 495 c ½ to 3/8 cr
B 400 n 440/490 cs 14 3/4
B 1000 w2 420 p 1/2
B 250 z 730 c 1 3/4
B 500 j 430 p 5 1/8
B 400 k 450 c 7 3/4
Beans
S 400 sd j 1080p/1100c strangles 25
S 200 k 1130 straddles 63 1/2
B 1200 j 1080 p 4 7/8 vs 1135 1/2
S 200 w4 1130p/1140c strangles 24 1/4
S 300 n 1100 p 23 5/8
B 1500 w4 1260 c 5/8
B 200 m 1070 p 18
S 500 h 1130 c 6 7/8
S 1000 h 1120 p 11
B 200 x 1150 c 38 7/8 to 39
B 600 nx +60 cso c 14 ½ covered vs 44 1/2
B 5000 n 1200 c 23 1/8 to 26
B 700 n 1180/1280 cs 20 7/8
S 500 h 1120 p 10 1/4
B 500 h 1110 p vs s 1000 h 1090 p 2 7/8 db
B 250 n 1090 p 20
B 250 x 1240 c 19
B 400 k 1130 c 34 to 35
B 250 n 1090 p 20
B 500 n 1120 c 52 7/8 to 55 1/2
B 100 n 1200/1300 cs vs s j 1200 c 9 db
B 2000 k 1200 c vs s 1000 k 1160 c 2 ¼ db
Soymeal
B 3000 h 310 c .950 to 1.10
S 1500 h 300 c 3.55 to 3.40
B 500 k 320 c vs s 290 p .55 db vs 303.0
S 600 n 305/295 ps 4.40
S 600 k 300/280 ps 5.85
B 300 j 315 4.55
S 300 h 300 c 3.75 to 3.65 vs 300.0
B 300 v 300p/330c strangles 22.40
B 1000 h 300 c vs s 2000 h 310 c 1.85 to 2.00 db vs 303.0
B 250 h 300 p 3.00
B 150 k 310/340 cs 6.40
S 275 v 320 c 12.40 vs 308.5
B 600 h 305 c vs s 300 h 300 c .60 db
B 200 h 296 p 1.85
Bean oil
B 1000 j 59 c vs s 500 k 59 c 1.260 to 1.280
B 500 k 52 p .060
B 1000 n 70 c 1.095
B 1000 h 55 p .250
S 1000 h 55 c vs b 2000 h 57 c .355 to .340 cr vs 5708
B 500 h 58 c .560 vs 5686
S 200 h 57 c .915 to .905
B 300 h 5650 c 1.080 to 1.085 vs 5672
B 200 n 65/75 cs 1.160
S 1000 h 55 c 2.050
S 1500 k 55/65 cs 3.280 vs 5736
B 250 k 60 c 2.035
S 400 h 60 c .155
B 500 k 58/65 cs 1.750 vs 5695
B 100 n 52/47 ps vs s 70 c .150 db
B 200 j 48 p .155 vs 5694
B 500 h 55 c 1.990 to 2.000 vs 5659
On a block
S 800 k 52 p vs 5725 against b 800 h 50 p vs 5672 collecting .900
S 2000 k 55/65 cs 3.260 vs 5736
B 1250 j 65 c .555 vs 5775
Wheat
B 200 h 520 p 4 ¼
B 900 h 560 c 7/8
B 500 j 575 c 5 ¾ vs 539 1/2
B 100 h 530 c vs s 200 h 555 c 4 5/8 db
S 250 h 530 p 7 3/8
Kc wheat
B 1000 j 550/600 cs 10 1/8 to 10 1/4
B 350 n 600 c 16 1/2
S 700 j 560 c 10 3/8
Crush
B 5 u 200 p 16
Ethanol
B 200 x and z 1.700 c paying .110 to .120 for the pair
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C H6 | 428.75 | 0.00 | 430 | 13.3 | -1.40 | 3.25 | 3.59 | 3.16 | 11.70 | 10 |
| C J6 | 437.25 | 0.25 | 435 | 14.4 | -0.10 | 2.75 | 3.97 | 3.04 | 11.02 | 45 |
| C K6 | 437.25 | 0.25 | 435 | 15.6 | -0.20 | 2.75 | 4.30 | 3.04 | 11.02 | 73 |
| C M6 | 444.75 | 1.00 | 445 | 16.2 | -0.10 | 3.00 | 4.54 | 2.96 | 10.56 | 101 |
| C N6 | 444.75 | 1.00 | 445 | 17.4 | -0.30 | 3.00 | 4.87 | 2.96 | 10.56 | 136 |
| C U6 | 443.50 | 0.75 | 445 | 19.6 | -0.10 | 2.50 | 5.48 | 2.36 | 8.45 | 192 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S H6 | 1122.50 | 11.75 | 1120 | 14.5 | -0.40 | 17.75 | 10.25 | 9.53 | 13.48 | 10 |
| S J6 | 1137.50 | 12.50 | 1140 | 15.7 | 0.50 | 17.75 | 11.25 | 9.73 | 13.58 | 45 |
| S K6 | 1137.50 | 12.50 | 1140 | 16.3 | 0.70 | 17.75 | 11.68 | 9.73 | 13.58 | 73 |
| S M6 | 1149.50 | 13.00 | 1150 | 16.0 | 0.60 | 18.00 | 11.59 | 9.44 | 13.04 | 101 |
| S N6 | 1149.50 | 13.00 | 1150 | 16.1 | 0.50 | 18.00 | 11.66 | 9.44 | 13.04 | 136 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W H6 | 528.25 | -0.50 | 530 | 20.6 | -1.50 | 6.75 | 6.85 | 6.97 | 20.93 | 10 |
| W J6 | 538.00 | -0.75 | 540 | 20.7 | -1.20 | 7.00 | 7.02 | 6.47 | 19.10 | 45 |
| W K6 | 538.00 | -0.75 | 540 | 21.1 | -0.90 | 7.00 | 7.15 | 6.47 | 19.10 | 73 |
| W M6 | 548.25 | -0.75 | 550 | 21.6 | -0.80 | 6.75 | 7.46 | 6.22 | 18.00 | 101 |
| W N6 | 548.25 | -0.75 | 550 | 22.8 | -0.70 | 6.75 | 7.87 | 6.22 | 18.00 | 136 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWH6 | 530.50 | 1.75 | 530 | 20.6 | -1.40 | 7.25 | 6.88 | 7.20 | 21.54 | 10 |
| KWJ6 | 544.00 | 2.25 | 545 | 21.2 | -1.10 | 7.00 | 7.26 | 6.90 | 20.14 | 45 |
| KWK6 | 544.00 | 2.25 | 545 | 21.5 | -0.70 | 7.00 | 7.37 | 6.90 | 20.14 | 73 |
| KWN6 | 557.25 | 2.25 | 555 | 22.9 | -0.60 | 6.75 | 8.04 | 6.78 | 19.31 | 136 |
| KWU6 | 571.75 | 1.75 | 570 | 23.9 | -0.50 | 6.00 | 8.61 | 6.62 | 18.39 | 192 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOH6 | 57.27 | 0.58 | 57.5 | 25.1 | -2.40 | 1.12 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 22.95 | 10 |
| BOJ6 | 57.74 | 0.57 | 57.5 | 30.3 | -0.10 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 0.81 | 22.41 | 45 |
| BOK6 | 57.74 | 0.57 | 57.5 | 31.0 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 1.13 | 0.81 | 22.41 | 73 |
| BON6 | 57.91 | 0.55 | 58 | 29.3 | 0.40 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 0.78 | 21.43 | 136 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMH6 | 300.80 | 3.00 | 300 | 18.4 | 0.40 | 6.50 | 3.49 | 3.57 | 18.83 | 10 |
| SMJ6 | 305.80 | 3.10 | 305 | 18.5 | 0.30 | 5.90 | 3.56 | 3.24 | 16.80 | 45 |
| SMK6 | 305.80 | 3.10 | 305 | 18.7 | 0.30 | 5.90 | 3.60 | 3.24 | 16.80 | 73 |
| SMN6 | 310.70 | 3.20 | 310 | 18.5 | 0.30 | 5.70 | 3.62 | 3.11 | 15.91 | 136 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
